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美股仙人
2026-10-26 19:26
马斯克又开始吹存了 ,他现在一会友军一会敌军,左右横跳,我怀疑他在做 T😅
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
美股仙人
2026-10-26 18:06
研究grok bot无法自拔,无心吹存....
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
Serenity
2026-10-26 16:14
TY $ANT for the positive $3.4B FCF for H1 2026.
Still feels like all your AI infra names from $MU to $AAOI sold off way too hard.
Considering the billions in financing raised by frontier labs to hyperscalers..
End up ultimately flowing back to GPUs, networking, to memory. https://t.co/U6GAmlOJ53
美股仙人
2026-10-26 15:47
被X上大量的博主洗脑了一个月的Grok bot,今天熬不住了,还是下载去用一下,用完才发现,chatgpt那个什么dot是什么傻逼玩意。浪费我青春。
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
美股仙人
2026-10-26 15:44
跌起来莫名其妙,涨起来也一定是莫名其妙的。
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
美股仙人
2026-10-26 12:51
存储战士进来聊聊天,美好的周一开始了
美股仙人
2026-10-26 12:51
https://t.co/2W6vMbWT1R
美股仙人
2026-10-26 11:44
好像不需要鸡汤了,还需要按摩吗🤣
美股仙人
2026-10-26 10:03
存储说,我不是周期股,我很赚钱,需求很旺盛,增长很快,长协签到手抽筋,产能拉冒烟,依旧一存难求。可是市场不相信,觉得存储是周期,增长维持不了,价格会下跌,扩产是利空。
于是市场卖出存储,鬼故事满天飞。既然市场不相信,没人买我,那我买我自己,我自己真金白银回购,有多少我回购多少,反正钱多到花不完,全当回馈股东了。
所以认知决定一切,你要是不相信就一直别相信,别到时候涨起来了追着买就行。
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
美股仙人
2026-10-26 08:21
晚上 8.40,继续鸡汤,扛不住我来帮你扛 https://t.co/5ynKFJvHsj
美股仙人
2026-10-26 06:11
这一波我站高盛。😅😅
美股仙人
2026-10-26 06:04
这种新闻就是放出来给你们看的。真想干何必告诉你?直接干不就行了。现在打仗哪有这么正人君子?还来预告,生怕对面准备不足、死得太快吗?还 96 小时倒计时,不知道的还以《使命召唤》搞宣发呢。😅😅😅
Buy the dip,长期持有。Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/0fMkmsgeef
美股仙人
2026-10-26 05:59
马斯克攻击新云,对新云是较大利空。但他所言并非新观点:美国算力中心一直缺地、缺电、缺水,审批卡壳、社区反对。这些众所周知,只是他又说一遍。
马斯克这么说必有目的。这些算力中心本质是SpaceX的竞争对手。他巴不得新云全倒闭,然后趁机收购合并。
至于NBIS和CRWV,短期情绪会恐慌一阵,但不会超过一周。若因马斯克言论跌出黄金坑,反而是捡便宜机会。毕竟两家背靠黄老板,马斯克与他交情深,再坏也不至于坑黄老板。
不用太恐慌,马克思本身说的就不是 AI 泡沫,他说的只是优胜劣汰的市场竞争而已。说到底,马斯克自己也是 aI 的积极参与者,SpaceX 自己就是新云,他不会自己砸自己的。
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
美股仙人
2026-10-26 05:05
@Corsica267 高盛周五说BUY THE DIP, LOL
Serenity
2026-10-26 00:46
Just another $40B going into the "AI Infra" Bubble...
Elon stated this $SPCX financing would primarily fund $NVDA GPU procurement H1 2027. Which indirectly increases demand for memory, networking, etc needed.
In some other notes, VPEC today in UDN: "InP substrates is seriously in short supply" in regards to suppliers like $AXTI.
- Morgan Stanley believes that InP substrates, EML and CW lasers will be the primary bottlenecks
- VPEC emphasized that whoever can secure more raw material supply in the future will have greater pricing power and influence in the market.
Very true about supply procurement... both upstream materials like epiwafers/substrates to ultimately compute.
We're in a volatile period where all your largest companies in the world are fighting over control of the future of AI infrastructure.
Any slowdown seems unlikely.
美股仙人
2026-10-25 23:29
美伊战争其实就是川普的一句话的事,要么直接结束,要么常态化,无论如何,10 天内必须要有个说法,而暴涨或者暴跌一个一次性的定价必定会发生,只要消息落地,都是利好👌
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
Serenity
2026-10-25 22:00
I've always defended X as the only platform to be on for financial discourse.
But it's getting harder to when the owner constantly amplifies narratives of collapse… of companies whose interests conflict with his own at $SPCX or $TSLA.
Would people be comfortable if $NVDA Jensen Huang owned $META?
And then the timelines were dominated by his amplified narratives of $AVGO failing?
I can't see how that would be healthy for grassroots discussion.
美股仙人
2026-10-25 17:49
RT @financialjuice: 🔴 ⚠️ BREAKING: Trump: We will not attack Iran today.
美股仙人
2026-10-25 14:39
回头看上周,我依然觉得 Meta 的财报很优秀,西数的财报很优秀,我认为这些公司包括其他半导体科技都有被错杀的嫌疑。
哪怕你说上周的美伊局势,互相隔空放狠话,最后其实也是什么没发生,油价就这样莫名其妙起飞,股市莫名其妙崩盘,我都不知道到底发生了啥值得这么崩的…😅
上周情绪是很差,但是市场在对着空气恐慌,对着一些没有发生的事情恐慌😅市场就是胆小鬼,但你不能是,你必须勇敢坚定,看到本质,本质就是世界正在因为 ai 变得更好🤣
下周谷歌、微软、亚马逊,大概率也是和 Meta一样是一份美丽的财报,对硬件来说,又是一份打破周期论的强有力证据。市场还能继续无视这次白纸黑字的证据吗?已经错杀一次了,还继续恐慌继续错杀?🤣🤣我觉得我们可以冷静思考一下这个问题…
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
美股仙人
2026-10-25 13:40
大选前的最后完整周了,所有的不确定性最终都会要落地成确定了。留给你们最后抄底的时间已经不多了。
不管美伊最后怎么发展,这剧本不可能讲一辈子,市场早晚会充分定价,也会有对冲突疲劳的一天,只不过等你意识到这一天的时候,大概率是因为开始反弹了。所以为何不趁还没涨的时候先下手为强呢?
听到一句话,悲观者永远正确,乐观者一直挣钱。😁
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料
美股仙人
2026-10-25 13:31
所以我是否可以认为闪迪、美光可以被分类成价值股了??其实按照新规看,真的蛮符合要求的。🤪
如果真的是这样?那不是会有一波被动买入?我不知道,我乱说的。这种你们就当乐子看吧😅
uy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/HPYhlDkaby
美股仙人
2026-10-25 13:26
RT @mediastorm_en: This is how we treat iPhone Duo in China when we're bored https://t.co/aPlWDTQLAS
美股仙人
2026-10-25 08:37
老马的帖子要连起来看,他的意思是:
土地、许可、并网、变压器、开关柜、噪音、燃料、铸造机、大车床、居民用电优先和社区政治每一个环节现在都是困难重重的卡点,有一个卡点卡住,算力就跑不起来。
结果是什么?需求越来越多,但是卡买来了,算力却增长的比预期慢,而老算力中心会越来越赚钱,现成的算力租金会越来越贵,最后,新建的小算力中心会成批倒闭,他们会死在成批的卡点上。最后被算力巨头收购捡漏。
对于存储来说,算力中心一定不会停,但是建造过程会被拉的很长,算力的供应速度会远低于需求的增长,需求平衡的时间点也会被大大推迟。
如果你希望川普输掉中期选举,民主党赢得两院,民主党不会阻止AI发展,他只会让数据中心造的很慢,延长硬件的周期。
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
Serenity
2026-10-25 04:31
$NVDA Jensen Huang on photonics: adding scale-up to optical domain, “is going to be, well, 15x” to aggregate volume.
Relating to $LITE, $COHR, and laser companies..
“I'm fairly certain the amount of optics that we need in the future will be several orders of magnitude” Huang added.
We’re already in a CW laser bottleneck, but given the time/rate for capacity expansion, I definitely don’t see it meeting the scale Jensen envisions…
Your leading merchant suppliers focusing new capacity toward UHP CPO lasers might also unintentionally make shortages around lower end ranges more severe…
Since even if you don’t reallocate capacity (which Coherent implied they’d do to maximize margins), the demand for lower end ranges increase too as pluggable demand grows.
Anyway, you’re gonna need a lot of lasers and given low BOM cost… this might trigger some fun game theory allocation wars + price hikes for supply
美股仙人
2026-10-25 01:32
@Yuchenj_UW I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers
Serenity
2026-10-24 17:46
So back on your Neoclouds like $NBIS + memory read through... From $AMZN CEO + A16z interview.
Q: On memory shortages (eg. $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung):
A: "There's only so much memory, and I don't think that that shortage ends in 2027."
Q: On AWS capacity:
A: "A good chunk of 28 is sold out", "largely sold out through 2027."
Q: On capex ROI:
A: Amazon had said it would spend about $220 billion in capex for 2026. But Jassy said the company "could invest a lot more and it wouldn't be a bad use of capital"
This is probably validating economics of Neoclouds model since this comes from a pretty stingy hyperscaler like Amazon... that only serves free bananas to their employees.
Unlike trusting $META / Zuck where you the guy throws all you can eat cruise ship type buffets at every employee.
- AWS claims approximately 30-40% better price-performance than comparable AI accelerators.
Then went on to say Annapurna was "one of the very best acquisitions we've done in Amazon and the history of the company, if not the best." "We spun out a separate team in Annapurna to build an AI accelerator"
Just to give a bump to your AI custom silicon type private companies (since others like $AAPL were likely going on shopping sprees).
TLDR:
- Not really too much groundbreaking, just incremental validation of what was said previous earnings.
- Broader shortages (like memory) won't end in 2027
- Always positive to hear from $AMZN on insatiable demand + ROI given atrocious Neocloud sentiment right now
Serenity
2026-10-24 16:23
I guess what I've seen from Chinese laser capacity expansion:
1. Dongshan/Source Photonics (索尔思): 9M/month capacity -> 22M/month Q4 -> 300m/year in 2027 (mostly EML, but blended)
Claims of 1B/year "target" for laser chips with no deadline, but I'd take this as a grain of salt.
2. Shijia (仕佳): 72M/year for 100mW CW, 2-3 year project (mainly 2029 full capacity online)
3. Yunling (云岭): 18.75M/year 70/100mW CW, 3 year schedule (mainly 2029 full capacity online)
4. Ligent (纳真), some reports stated 170M target for total capacity (also blended, lot of which is 200G EML)
5. Yuanjie: ~10M/year currently, expanding for early 2027 and 2028, but no quantities.
6. Hongchen: I think this was the perfect example of flooding H2 2026 arguments. With some some optical bears claiming 60-70M capacity...
But this turned out to completely wrong... Their actual statements were "70/100 mW products are entering small-volume production".
7. Dingxin Optoelectronics - Targeting 15M/year blended (with 70/100mW CW and 100G EML lines)
Obviously mapped many others like Everbright/Accelink and did some guesses around laser mixes, but only included public disclosures.
From your pluggable vendor channel checks:
- 70mW/100mW lasers are actually a bottleneck right now per Innolight/Cambridge channel checks, laser ASPs actually increasing.
Lasers are tighter than they were a few months ago.
I don't think there's a giant moat here, Chinese players are already competitive. But a bottleneck is a bottleneck, and anyone with capacity to monetize that will benefit, since it's a volume game.
In terms of what the larger pluggable makers are actually doing:
- Innolight September disclosure: actively introducing new suppliers and are planning to sign 2-3 year-long contracts to lock upstream capacity for lasers (still actively securing supply for 1.6T pluggables)
So there's some game theory over who can lock up qualified capacity among all your players.
Even if there's some over-ordering, laser BOM is cheap, so they'd probably want to lock up capacity with more suppliers than lose billions in downstream revenue. (also kinda hurts competitors)
- High end lines (for CPO), non-competitive with Western players like $LITE / $COHR as of next few years. But Chinese players would eventually develop the technology.
- $AAOI CEO: Chinese suppliers several years behind on high-power CPO/DWDM laser production "not in the next 2,3 years"
- $LITE CEO questioned whether claimed Chinese manufacturing capacity was translating into commercial output. "At least at the moment, we see no impact from any Chinese laser supply."
This is despite Shijia, Everbright, Yuanjie and others stating 400mW capabilities and capacity expansion targets from Chinese companies. Although Western CEOs might be disputing their reliability and capability to scale these lines.
I see lower end range bottleneck for pluggable will gradually ease as more capacity comes online 2028. But all evidence points against near-term overflooding.
The 100mW range for example, someone cited 2 years of equipment investment. Higher ranges were 3 years for equipment investment? So even some Chinese players take years for capacity to come online.
The multi year laser shortage statements from laser company executives seems to be true... especially among higher end ranges, since buildout takes a lot of time.
Legitimate competition coming from China, but as of now there's a scramble for CW LTAs among the industry in 2026-2027.
Lot of capacity is probably allocated toward higher spec lasers or EML, as seen with EML bottlenecking $LITE for the longest time (they have more supply now) that they had to buy CW off the market instead of supplying it themselves.
This is while tail end for 800G demand for example, might continue much much longer than expected with sovereign DC buildouts. So there might be some surprising dynamics for duration, we'll see.
In the end I do think supply chains will be bifurcated:
- Chinese players will prioritize domestic capabilities but heavily sources globally.
- Western players (now) prioritize Western supply chains unless China comes online with cheap enough supply (which don't see happening near-term).
TLDR:
-> Multi-year shortage definitely seems accurate for higher end specs
-> Lot of China capacity overflooding claims earlier from H1 turned out to be completely false. People keep making them for some reason across memory to photonics.
-> Chinese laser players are competitive for 70mW/100MW, meaningful expansion Y/Y, but nothing showing overflooding, given laser demand increasing, probably gradual easing into 2028.
We'll see, supply chain evolves month after month, just my current opinion from what I'm seeing.
美股仙人
2026-10-24 13:00
你确定?一个月前你知道 muse 能火?两个月前你知道 grok bot 存在?你敢说半年一年后 没有 其他的ai 应用落地?物理 ai 不搞了?人工智能到这里就结束了?需求本来就是释放生产力,生产力又会制造新的需求,你觉得就是 oa,那是因为你只能看到 oa…
我常说一句话,碳基大脑有局限的,不要太依赖自己的经验,容易被困住,人类的格局其实小的可怜,对天然没有见过的东西缺乏认知…
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
Serenity
2026-10-24 12:30
@aleabitoreddit What about comprletition from Chinese suppliers?
Serenity
2026-10-24 11:05
Yes, I like $SIVE. It's a fun company to cover, since there's a lot of supply chain alpha here.
But the company completely Tall Poppy Syndromed itself last earnings.
And it's clearly shown in the drawdown.
Bit of a longer consolidated thought and some scattered bits of supply chain info:
- Sivers has 100M CW DFB laser capacity coming online Q4 2027 during an industry shortage.
And very large allocations from foundries online (they were doing these quals with Win Semi + 2 others back in 2023/2024), so they can actively monetize the bottleneck today.
The other interesting reason why bottlenecks are important (aside from ASP hikes), is because qualifications convert much faster + more likely given incentives around supply scarcity.
-> As one example, module makers have expanded the amount of suppliers, eg. (lightcounting cited companies expanding to 5-7+ suppliers from 2-3).
Innolight, for example last month responded to a question addressing tight 1.6T DFB laser supply in 2026–2027:
- Innolight was actively introducing new suppliers last month and are planning to sign 2-3 year-long contracts to lock upstream capacity
-> This is while your biggest merchant laser companies making up the world's 600m+ EML/CW laser capacity like $COHR have redirected lasers to their own programs. $LITE sold out into 2029, Landmark also locked a lot of their capacity into 2027-2029. $AAOI was an expected player, but ended up redirecting lasers into their own transceiver programs too.
And this coincides with times $SIVE has tremendous capacity available now + actively engaged with Chinese pluggables players (not saying it's Innolight, but just shows Chinese makers like Cambridge/Eoptolink are actively trying to secure laser capacity).
- Fun to note, before $JBL was announced, Sivers had and has ongoing direct engagements with hyperscalers as well.
We saw that hyperscalers approached $MTSI and $AAOI for laser capacity from their earnings transcripts (and hilariously got turned away from AAOI due to shortages).
So the odds pluggable makers or hyperscalers end up converting to capacity agreements with $SIVE seems a materially higher.
Just a little rant: for all the sellside/retail trying to model revenue, you can't just slap on a stupid 25-35% CAGR on NRE revenue since it's close to 0 revenue now.
Especially when they scale up to maybe 300M laser capacity (extrapolated from 2:1 external/internal capacity).
It's also not the same as $POET having OE packaging capacity at scale, since lasers are in a genuine shortage. So capacity is more likely to convert like how $AAOI is sold out, $LITE is sold out into 2029
We've already seen what revenue that laser capacity brings in since $LITE cited $5B in laser capacity from just one 2028 fab alone in Greensboro (on higher end ranges).
And whatever lasers Sivers sell, they're targeting ~50-60+ blended gross margins long term on maybe $3-6 for lower range lasers to $6-$12 for high end custom deployments. But no disclosures around capacity -> revenue conversion yet from Sivers.
Now here's the thing people don't really understand, "why no revenue?" for current opportunities?
$SIVE pre 2024 focused on custom development for future architectural shifts like CPO.
For custom deployments:
- We finally got conversion from 1 of their 4 or so lidar customers this week with ~ $AEVA.
- ~ $APPL was confirmed ongoing earlier this year with an explanation that "It takes tremendous amount of trials and algorithms way beyond just what we supply to them".
- All their customers from 2023-2024 like Ayar and 3 others, probably achieve volume in 2028 as CPO takes off.
Custom high end lasers programs are extremely sticky but take many years and are mainly NRE. And as seen with CPO scale up, faced delays with commercialization over the years.
So $SIVE from the CEO shift in 2024 realized "okay" let's ramp revenue with mass commercialization products today like 70mW/100mW/200mW lasers for 800g/1.6T pluggables.
And that's where they found $JBL and all your other large pluggable players today during the shortage.
Now... the work Sivers did in 2023-2024 earlier: Such as $AAPL, Ayar, $AEVA, other lidar/CPO players.
And their new mass commercialization opportunities like $JBL, $GFS, and many pluggables/NPO suppliers in engagement now.
Have all their inflection points converges 2027 onward, which is why I find the company compelling.
Where I think management went completely wrong was messaging and near-term execution:
- Deciding to focus on current tiny contracts like Seminex, AllSpace, Tachyon orders felt like the entire focus recently in earnings, shareholder letters, and media commentary
-> Brutal honesty to $SIVE management, majority of Western audiences literally don't care and it's immaterial to the valuation.
$SIVE moved 0% on all of the Seminex/AllSpace/Tachyon order announcements, and even dropped in price. But rallied like 50% on $GFS and something similar on $JBL announcement.
The reason why most took long positions in the first place was CPO.
So if $SIVE wants to go answer questions to Swedish media about "Why are you bleeding out" and defending that with cellular orders explaining pipeline conversion.
That's not going to help people stay long during drawdowns.
-> Second part was not committing to NASDAQ listing in a certain timeframe and actually executing.
- If there's delays, sure, just say it, but non-committal lawyer-like language is infuriating to hear, especially from the CFO.
I think they'll have that opportunity next month earnings to correct everything.
So wrapping up:
- There's nothing I see remotely close to $SIVE, in terms of % of global CW laser capacity they're coming online with relative to MC.
- They have a ton commercialization paths, from O-Net, $POET, $JBL, Ayar, $GFS, $AAPL, $AEVA, and many potential hyperscaler/pluggable engagements.
Even if one or two fall through, the breadth of ongoing quals is so deep + current laser bottleneck is severe, that it's more likely than not many will convert to production.
It's clear $SIVE wants to focus on dominating the laser chokepoint first, and ended up using their 700m SEK fundraise for capacity expansion.
But they should focus on communicating the billions in potential economic scale from that laser capacity conversion.
And execute on it.
美股仙人
2026-10-24 09:51
@hanking66 @Iamkunn1998 需求不也来自哦o a两家,终端用户需求不行,arrr没进步,这套都要完
美股仙人
2026-10-24 03:13
也不用等下周的亚马逊财报了,亚马逊 ceo 做了一个 60 分钟的采访说了很多有价值的东西。
1. 亚马逊2026年资本开支2200亿美元,依然无法满足AI算力需求,投入受真实订单驱动。
2. 2026年算力基本售罄,2027年接近售罄,2028年已有大量产能被预订。
3. 内存成为AI扩张的重要瓶颈,HBM与传统DRAM争夺产能,供应紧张可能持续数年。
4. AWS的AI业务仅用三年就突破250亿美元年化收入,商业化速度远超早期云计算。
5. 企业级AI应用仍处于早期,未来5至7年推理需求有望迎来大规模增长。
6. AI推理成本持续下降将推动应用普及,进一步扩大算力和存储需求。
7. 数据中心建设通常需要提前约两年投入,不能简单用当期收入衡量资本开支回报。
8. Jassy认为AWS长期有机会达到万亿美元年收入规模,AI可能显著扩大云计算市场。
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
美股仙人
2026-10-24 02:37
你就是最好的例子,证明长期持有是很难的,没有几个人做得到,因为人性如此,天然厌恶失去,喜欢躲下跌,看似规避风险,实则贪婪恐惧,交易分泌多巴胺,做交易胜比做爱,你嘴里的无脑看多,恰恰是反人性的智慧选择。
耐心是这个市场里最稀有的品质。
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
美股仙人
2026-10-24 02:03
@hanking66 说实话我实在无法忍受那些博主,尤其是粉丝量大的,无脑看多市场和看空市场,他们应该灵活变动,当市场一些领涨股已经几个月没有突破的时候,就算不做空也应该适当减仓减少风险了
美股仙人
2026-10-23 17:35
明天就结束好吗😅
美股仙人
2026-10-23 16:33
今天的反弹还是弱的,成交量更是少的可怜,能止跌就是不错了😅下周估计也是动荡的一周,又是存储财报,又是大科技财报,还不知道周末和下周美伊会发展成什么样。只要 11 月 3 日之前,我认为美股就是情绪博弈主导市场。
但是 11 月 3 日之后,市场一定会有个说法的,基于美股基本面好到天花板了,我认为 3 号之后,焦虑的情绪会消退,做多科技将重回舞台中央,该涨还是继续涨!
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
Serenity
2026-10-23 14:43
@aleabitoreddit You still confident on SIVE?
美股仙人
2026-10-23 13:09
来来来,直播开始了,来自死多头最后的倔强!我不卖怎么输!多头必胜! https://t.co/nLRd39oK3u
美股仙人
2026-10-23 12:45
美光告诉你 2033 年看不到供需平衡
老黄告诉你存储至少缺到 2029
西数告诉你存储需求、利润、价格还在上涨
Meta 告诉你资本开支还在继续,但是收入也在增加
spcx 告诉你算力中心需求巨大
。。。
所有人都告诉你,存储需求非常强劲,比预期还要强劲。
但是市场选择视而不见,继续下跌,这种股价和事实严重的偏离,最终一定会得到修正。我选择耐心等待,继续持有😅
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
美股仙人
2026-10-23 12:17
开盘前入金成功,这应该是我近三年来的首次入金。这种神经病行情,纯噪音控制市场的行情,绝对的买入机会。市场已经偏离基本面很远了,无论再怎么偏,偏多久,最终还是会回归的。屡试不爽。
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/A852LHS1GT
Serenity
2026-10-23 10:17
Pretty crazy Reuters piece on the global selloff.
- October 22 marked the 1st time since the COVID crash that long/short, systematic, and multi-strategy hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs ALL lost more than 1% in a single day.
- Tech-focused hedge funds: down ~10% in October
- Asia-focused hedge funds: down ~9% in October
There’s separate interviews where Citadel/JP Morgan have been saying retail has been the ones buying the dip in semiconductor, neocloud, and memory stocks.
And the stocks bought by most retail were $NBIS, $SNDK, and $TSM.
Reuters stated this downturn triggered institutional deleveraging events among hedge funds.
Quite the divergence, I do think there’s been a ton of irrational selling now, hedge fund deleveraging seems to be a major contributor.
美股仙人
2026-10-23 03:29
关键时刻韩国顶住了!李在明死刑改判死缓!!真没想到,绝境中站出来的居然是欧巴!
川子,你背后是整个亚洲,今夜为你点亮,勿辜负啊!!🤣🤣
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
美股仙人
2026-10-23 02:53
定投纳指,敢跌就买,有本事跌到世界末日,Buy the dip,奉陪到底。
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/COiL2dHjhU
Serenity
2026-10-23 01:10
Actually $ESMT and my legacy memory names held up better than the rest of the AI trade.
Probably did better... since ESMT is around 1.6x runrate P/E, annualized off July earnings.
This was more of a durability/PSMC hike sensitivity type thesis, but... we got durability support now from brand new commentary yesterday:
- ESMT expected tightness on their legacy memory products through 2028 or longer
- Further Q4 price increases... with the operating performance is expected to be better than the third quarter
- Supply shortfall exceeding 30%
Source: Digitimes TW
So you have a $2.15B MC company that made $107M net income a month (annualized $1.28B earnings a year) from July earnings...
With future price hikes and likely tightness lasting through 2028 onward.
Serenity
2026-10-23 00:52
$NVDA Jensen Huang: Surplus of memory supply is unlikely by 2029.
The CNBC question referenced a Korean newspaper opinion on $KOSPI / Samsung / SK Hynix that predicted "new supply will leave the memory sector a red ocean in 2029."
"One of the things that's really great about memory is that you can always use more of it", Jensen said, citing LPDDR usage in DCs. And responded "I don't think so" in terms of possibilities of oversupply in 2029.
Just my personal opinion, Nvidia probably has the most visibility in the entire industry.
Especially around supply procurement and emerging capacity, given they're the ones leading all the architectural shifts.
On durability, you have Samsung already allocated majority of capacity into 2031 from SED and hyperscalers like $GOOGL are already reportedly securing memory LTAs into 2035 from KeyBanc.
Yet there's endless "it's all over" sentiment on memory now. I'd probably trust Jensen's opinion here.
美股仙人
2026-10-23 00:17
韩股开盘居然没有熔断,简直不可思议。难道这一次要被韩国人拯救了?
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
美股仙人
2026-10-22 20:02
快打把,最好把网线打了,华尔街机房炸了,这样我就不会亏了🥲
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
美股仙人
2026-10-22 19:19
BREAKING: Iran says it will strike oil facilities, undersea cables, datacentres and AI facilities across as many as seven countries in the Gulf in the event of a fresh US-Israeli attack
美股仙人
2026-10-22 19:08
大盘-3%,meta-8%,spcx-9%,达子-4.6%,亚马逊-5%,谷歌-3.5%,半导体跌了也就算了,你们跌什么跌?
Meta 提高资本支出把大家吓坏了?
现在是提高资本支出也跌,降低资本支出也跌是吧😅怎么样都能找到理由下跌,是这个意思吗?😅
这么跌下去,感觉收盘要收在最低了😇😇
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。
美股仙人
2026-10-22 17:50
本来真不想入金的,但是真觉得不入对不起自己,还是入吧😹不过也不知道来不来得及到账…随缘了。
总之我认为这一定是买点,而不是下车点,我看不到任何下车的理由,任何战争造成的下跌都是买点,这是我的小学一年级语文老师第一堂课教我的。🤣🤣
Buy the dip,长期持有,Discord在个人资料。