不会有一直涨的标的，也不会有永远跌的股票。这只不过是存储每4个月一次的回撤。没错，存储之前也有这么跌过，只不过那时和大盘一起跌，无人在意。这次是存储独立下跌，吸引了所有人的目光。我不认为这是坏事，只不过是一次普通必要的调整，坚持认为存储完全没有到头，所有人都低估了它的需求和价值，还在用过去的思维预测未来。存储会再创新高，让所有人刮目相看🤣 我非常有信心，肯定，确定存储还会继续他的传奇故事，我没有一秒钟怀疑过。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.

加油吧！说不定最难的时候已经过去了。一定要坚持住！ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

告诉各位一个经验之谈，股价底永远早于情绪底😁，当你认为反转的时候，底部往往在身后了。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

今天路边卖西瓜的大爷跟我说，小伙子，半导体不能买了，行情结束了，韩国那边都死人了。😳 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Some updates on bottleneck timelines: - ABF substrates: 1 year / eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substrates - HDI Boards: Over 6 months / Victory Giant (300476), Zhen Ding (4958), Unimicron, Compeq (2313), Meiko (6787) - Multilayer boards: ~6 months / Victory Giant, WUS (002463), $TTMI, Gold Circuit Electronics (2368), - CCL: Over 6 months (severe shortages of materials) / Elite Material (2383), Shengyi (600183), TUC (6274), ITEQ (6213), Nan Ya Plastics (1303), Resonac (4004) Mitsui Kinzoku (5706) / HVLP copper foil. Nittobo / glass fiber/cloth - MLCCs, chip resistors, tantalum capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors: 15-20 weeks to 1 year+ MLCC: Murata (6981), Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK (6762), Taiyo Yuden (6976), Yageo (2327), Walsin (2492) Chip Resistors: Yageo, Walsin, KOA (6999), Rohm (6963) and $VSH Tantalum capacitors: Kyocera/AVX, Yageo/KEMET, $VSH again Aluminum electrolytic capacitors: Nippon Chemi-Con (6997) Nichicon (6996) | Timelines sourced from Digitimes, did the honors of adding in related companies. But it's slightly more nuanced since MLCCs and others mix. in commodity types vs. AI DCs. Regardless, just some helpful mapping.

hello there the jacobian conjecture is false thanx to my close friend akhil for asking about it and my other close friend fable for working during the world cup final ((1+xy)^3 z + y^2 (1+xy) (4+3xy), y + 3 x (1+xy)^2 z + 3 x y^2 (4+3xy), 2 x - 3 x^2 y - x^3 z): \C^3\to \C^3, has jacobian determinant -2, and sends (0, 0, -1/4), (1, -3/2, 13/2), and (-1, 3/2, 13/2) to (-1/4, 0, 0)

市场已经没有人信了，都觉得存储结束了，韩国灭国了，半导体是下水道的老鼠，谁买半导体谁就是傻子，悲观到已经极限了。情绪完全是冰点。 往往这个时候，无论什么板块，这种情况下都是最好的买点。如果你在车上，请一定坚持住，我们已经很接近了 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

现在已经到了不相信会涨的阶段了，所以… 😉😉 我感觉熬出头了 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

There’s nothing quite like the scent of more AI capex on a Sunday. Probably some ways to go if leading frontier models are out of capacity from too much demand. https://t.co/d8mnuAQdLz

For anyone watching the 25%+ premium in $SKHY versus SK Hynix's Korean shares: The ADRs and local shares become convertible on July 29. Should open the door for arbitrage and likely compress the ADR premium. Maybe lifting Korean shares or pressuring US shares. 2.5% currently is the US ADR stock, so an additional 22.5% can be converted.

Thanks! I’ve always shared personal research and core thoughts for free. Not trying to sell anything or tell others what to do. And above all, just being transparent about my own returns (win or loss) Maybe this information democratization upsets some business models… When others try and pitch their $40 TA subscriptions that are always right and predicted the semis crash. But if they really believed it, they would have made 5000%+ buying puts and wouldn’t need to market a paywall. Yes, if I’m on 1.4x leverage, and if a portfolio concentrated in memory/photonics underlying crashes -35% on avg… you get a 49% drawdown. I’m just sharing what happens. But I expect AI names to recover since I see demand from compute to energy to memory to networking to be structural.

everybody hating on serenity posting his -49% pnl is so lame to me its normal to have pullbacks as a trader and he still has a better ytd than all of you its all jealousy that he's grown to 1m followers and they wish they had the same numbers to sell their shitty substack

Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.

@aleabitoreddit long time lurker, just wanted to update you on a recent development: Goldman Sachs updated Innolights price target to an insane 2581 Yuan/share during this downturn. Today's trading session saw the stock trading at 979.46 a share.

$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT

Wow, apparently there’s claims ~3.4% of the adult population in Korea faces liquidation risk? “As of July 13, over 1.2 million leveraged retail traders' accounts hit margin call lines, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts force-liquidated by brokers.” (There were other sources claiming this data came from Goldman Sachs desks rather than SK financial supervisory service data) Regardless, just evidence recent crash was accelerated by liquidation cascades/deleveraging rather than fundamentals:

Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.

Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.

坚持住！别放弃！我看到彩虹了了！🌈风雨总会过去的！ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/houP9fj71b

那么多人想看我仓位，其实我晒过无数次了，再晒一次 你们一个个喊亏麻了，说实话亏得不如我一个小拇指，我每天一套房的亏。。。还是独栋别墅😂 沃都不怕，所以你们怕个毛线，都会回来别的 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/jivbqtRZaa

不瞒你们说，我已经三天没吃饭了，刚才饿晕在马路边上，一个好心的大哥给我嘴里塞了一个茶叶蛋，我才醒过来。大哥说我晕倒时嘴里不停喊 buy the dip。 我记下了大哥的地址，我说等我回本了一定寄一箱鸡蛋过去🤦🤦 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

我一离开寺庙怎么就跌回去了，是要我住在庙里吗？？ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.

别人写家人名字，我写股票代码，技术面没用，基本面没用，喊票也没用，我只能上玄学了，这几个代码已被祝福㊗️，我尽力了 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

不管你们信不信，我反正信了，头都快磕破了🙏🙏🙏，存储不要再跌了！！😭😭😭 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/qCslKgYWSX

Stop panicking. Take a second and really evaluate what you’re holding in your portfolio. Now ask yourself… Why did you buy it in the first place? What was your investment thesis? Relax. Take a deep breath. Did you buy it for a quick trade? Or did you invest because you believe in where the company will be years from now? If your long term thesis hasn’t changed… Close your brokerage app. Go live your life. Be present with your family. Good night fam. 💚

从一个极端到另一种极端。 会好起来的，现在拥挤赛道变成做空半导体了🫠 暴跌之后一定会引来反弹。等待这一天到来。 如果你觉得之前的存储太贵了，太挤了，那现在应该不贵了吧，可以抄底了吧🧐 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE. A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0. https://t.co/X1m9Yv1JuX

Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.

一下飞机打开手机，头有点晕晕的，也不知道是高反还是跌晕了。😵 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.

I hope there's someone at X can fix this subscription bug. Many people are reporting that subscriptions don't renew anymore. https://t.co/0MvdfJmBg3

上飞机前简单说一句，台积电的财报非常好，台积电向来就是科技股财报的风向标，可以看出这个Q的科技股资本开支大概率不会减缓，只要这个不发生，我就不担心。但目前股价还在跌，存储有点全民公敌的意思，太赚钱搞得大家都不爽。事情有点从一个极端走向另一个极端，这种不分青红皂白、无脑下跌的日子肯定无法持续。如果你觉得之前涨得太变态，那现在跌的也太变态了…也需要被纠正，好消息就是好消息，情绪需要时间消化，最终股价还是会回归基本面。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Why does X automatically unsubscribe me from Serenity?? I have had to re-sub 3 times already @aleabitoreddit @nikitabier https://t.co/mILffASRxV

很多人一跌就看空，天塌了、完蛋了、到头了。一涨就看多，牛逼、梭哈、多倍、起飞。 市场就是要你在恐慌时你恐慌，头脑发热时你发热，结果你还偏偏最配合，人云亦云，没有独立思考，完全跟着结果走，唯结果论，被市场耍得团团转，结果一年赚不到几个钱。 我真的是全网少数逆势博主，像忍者神龟。有人让我少说几句，但我不能闭嘴，我如果闭嘴三月份那波就不知道有多少人扛不住了🤦 说实话，就算现在，我也觉得存储远比三月时的美股好得多，三月份可是足足抗了六个月，从10月政府关门到三月美伊战争，我也足足鸡汤了半年，最后还不是都扛过来了🫪 在美股只有乐观能赚钱，悲观赚不到钱🫪，我也不要求你们现在理解我，因为最终你们会明白的。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

满屏的存储好消息，ASML财报超预期，资本支出未放缓，IBM财报显示客户在买存储，海力士七倍超额认购，三星财报前瞻超预期。跌到现在，连一个像样的利空都没有，只有更多利好。 行吧，你们觉得存储不行就卖、去做空。我一个人孤独持有，我来扛住下跌。 我只相信自己看到的，相信自己所相信的。我是最后的存储多头！！！ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

昨天直播时我说，存储昨天跌完，也就跌了17个交易日，一个月都不到，这么猛的行情，这个回调时间完全属于健康范围，更别说杠杆这么多了🤦 其实涨到现在，每个人都清楚会有回调，连路边的狗都涨怕了，但我们还是选择参与，这就是要面对的风险。下跌本在预期之内，我们应该坦然面对。 这也是存储第一次像样的回调，不会就这样结束，不仅存储没到头，市场甚至还低估了它。跌这么猛，目的就是让你动摇、怀疑自己，把不坚定的震出去，最后该涨还是会涨😍只要存储基本面不差，资本开支增速不放缓，我就不担心。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

花了大量时间研究所谓存储到头论，先说结论，我目前看不到任何存储到头的迹象。 1. 谷歌在2月确定了全年资本支出指引，4月上调指引，并明确表示每季度都会持续增加，且27年会显著增加，6月重申此观点。我不相信仅过了一个月就会下调支出指引，这几乎不可能。 2. 关于Q2资本支出同比增速放缓的概率，由于谷歌全年指引确定，我们能推算出Q2范围。最极端、最差的情况也有440亿，同比增速为96%，这个程度我不认为可以改变什么。而且这是最极端情况。若为正常或乐观情况，增速依旧在增加。 3. 其他大科技公司情况类似，Meta和微软甚至比谷歌更乐观。唯一有风险的是亚马逊，减缓概率最大，因为其指引已显示在减缓，但市场其实没什么反应。 4. 在这段半导体回调期间，资金其实一直在买入，例如半导体ETF出现巨额申购，海力士超额认购也能证明这一点，虽然准确数据要到11月13F才能知道，但我愿意相信这是华尔街人为制造的焦虑恐慌，以收割带血筹码。 下跌了，市场上的风言风语就会很多。但是只要你静下心来做一下研究。很多谣言都会不攻自破，资本支出一定会下来，但一定不是在此刻。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

太空股已经寂寞很久了，明天大火箭发射一波，带一下板块热度吧🙏 rklb 已经是白菜价了，真的不买吗😭 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/PLpjPyEbky

去趟中国后劲太大，都过去两个月了吧，川子还在回味呢🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/2mdzJosGKZ

我宣布，川普是真的懂，比华尔街敲键盘的懂多了！血书建议川普整顿下华尔街，把华尔街名字改成滑稽街😂 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/BfQ8LqTD61

Anthropic to IPO as early as October per Bloomberg. This is following their $65B financing at a $965 billion valuation last May. Hmm, would you all invest in Anthropic at a $1T+ valuation? https://t.co/iFIY1WulvO

苹果要收购芯片公司了，苹果为什么这么做？不就是因为干不过别人的 ai，不想被 openai 绑架，不想在 ai 竞争中落后么…就这种竞争环境下，你说硬件到头了，要缩减开支了？连最保守的苹果都下场了，其他公司敢降低资本开支吗？这是踩油门拼刺刀的时候，不是踩刹车的时候。 市场会明白过来的，或者市场本就明白，所以他才想要更多带血的筹码🤦就看你是熬下来还是缴枪投降了😂 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Your assumptions are wrong. Win Semiconductors has a InP capacity of 35.000 wafers per year. Assume even a low number 10% of that is 3500 wafers. There are approximately 3000 CW arrays on a wafer, price per Array >$50. At only 10% of this capacity Sivers could sell for more than $500m just for arrays..then you have pluggables, wireless...at 20% capacity...even more. Production qual has been ongoing for sometime, as WIN mgmt confirmed, hence should not be too far away.

$AAPL looks to acquire AI chip companies for running AI (Source: The Information) Right now, $MSFT, $META, Amazon, Google are carrying AI capex spend. But what if Apple joined the others after M&A? A possible scenario is that they revise capex largely upward for their own AI buildout. Since they probably witnessed Google cutting off Meta from compute constraints... or what happens when you partner with OpenAI for LLMs. Then learned how important it is to have your own infrastructure. This scenario would be quite bullish thematically from optical networking to foundries and something markets would not expect? We'll see what happens.

又是莫名其妙的一天，啥也别说了，也别分析了，等明天台积电财报吧…市场认为铲子股结束了，那就让铲子股告诉你没有结束。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

$NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang in Tokyo today said: "The reports are not true. Vera Rubin is already in production. Giant amounts of production incoming" As a flat denial to the accusation that their AI servers would be delayed. Jensen appears to be using the Umbrella term for Rubin Ultra/Kyber, then pointed to current gen ramp. Regardless, lot of damage has been done already to Nvidia supply chains stock prices, after the multiple delay reports. Even if Nvidia refuted them by clarifying Kyber change was an architecture optimization, not impacting timelines. It's a very dangerous and growing trend for folks to post overreaching broader claims from technical nuances to grow viewcount... Especially if they get Jensen has to respond. In the end, I'm trusting $NVDA on timelines since they probably have the greatest visibility into their own supply chain.

谷歌，巴菲特的最后一舞。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。 https://t.co/QbupGZUNfl

pypl盘前最高上涨了21%...我说的时候只有13%，看来资金看好交易能够成交。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。