Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.

Raymond James initiated coverage of $SPCX with “Strong Buy”. Giving it a $800 PT, valuing SpaceX at a ~$10T valuation. No words. Jokes about “institutional” notes for retail write themselves. https://t.co/B0uRojaNJZ

说实话我看不懂，但是我大受震撼，感觉嘴巴上下两张皮，想怎么说就怎么说。完全没有逻辑。 我就拿着不动了，现在任何操作都是多余的。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。 https://t.co/lgJIk2XUBD

Be Samsung at $1.24T: > market: we don’t think you can keep hiking memory prices > proceeds to hikes dram by 20% > releases earnings > most profitable company in the world beating $NVDA and $AAPL > operating profits growing 1803% Y/Y market: sells off Samsung -7%

光灭了，存储到顶了，是因为下跌了，市场才给下跌找的理由，还是真的到顶了才开始跌的？ 供应链没有变化，需求没有变化，产能没有变化，产业逻辑没有变化，AI叙事没有变化，企业盈利还在上涨，唯一的变化就是股价。 当然只要一下跌，这些东西大家也都不看了，不研究了，不重要了。跌了，就丢一句话：存储到顶了。 4月5月涨的好的时候，大家把白毛 @aleabitoreddit 捧上天，用AI研究他，学习他的思路，全世界用放大镜研究供应链，人人都成了供应链专家。为什么一跌，就没人讨论这些了呢？不是更应该研究和讨论吗？知道为什么吗？因为只要你但凡研究一点，你就会得出和股市下跌完全相反的结论。 这就是为什么大家这个时候都不看了，因为结果远比原因更重要。跌了就是跌了，找不出原因，就一句到顶了，多么轻松简单写意啊。 人性就是这样的，恐惧会让人失去思考能力，会质疑自己，怀疑自己，会做出冲动的决定。最终你会在底部割肉离场。 炒股不应该被情绪左右，最终都会回归基本面。需要时间，需要理性回归，我见过很多这样的时刻，无论是涨太多还是跌太多都是一样的。 我不会改变我的看法，存储的周期没有结束，我只认准我认定的，我不会在这种悲观时刻卖出我的股票，如果继续跌，我会把唯一的RKLB卖掉加到存储，对我来说，赚钱就是赚钱，好公司就是好公司，便宜就是便宜。其他都是假的。 口罩哥今天没喊存为王！我来替他喊：存！为！王！（破音） Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

One of the dumbest thematic selloffs I’ve seen to to date off: - $META compute news that’s not new - CPO delay report 1, that got refuted by $NVDA - CPO delay report 2, that got refuted by $NVDA High confidence, institutions will end up going long on the same names they’re bearposting after retail capitulates.

Trump: “You have a couple of guys who went short. Those poor ******* they’re in big trouble. They’re being wiped out. The short guys. I never liked short guys because they’re betting against the country”. https://t.co/6RW2KuzDoW

冷静仔细想一想，现在跌的理由其实都很牵强，都是没有实际证据，都是在那边猜。但是业绩其实都很好，市场可以向前看，市场走在价格前面没毛病，但你必须要有依据才行，而不是凭空猜啊，比如大科技的资本开支减少了，比如算力真的过剩了，比如存储的产能真的不缺了。目前这些迹象一点都看不到。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

很多人问我存储是不是结束了，我第一个跳出来反对：海力士上了存储就结束了？这逻辑不对，华尔街机构岂不也成韭菜了？🤦 踏空一整年，好不容易上车，结果告诉你结束了，专坑机构是吧？🤦🤦 仔细想想，到底是机构想上车砸盘压价，还是真的结束了？🤔 说实话，海力士要是发行遇阻、滞销、无人认购，那才叫结束。现在认购火爆、抢着买、光速售罄。别听华尔街说什么，要看他们做什么。🤔 嘴上喊鬼故事，身体却在买买买，你们觉得呢？ 关注一下海力士上市那天机构的吹捧，说不定周五风评就逆转，又喊缺存储了。🤦 永远是屁股决定脑袋，车下喊看空，车上喊看多，互骂傻逼。😳😳 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

炒股要有供应链思维，所以顺着上下游关系，这波我准备做多韩国殡葬业，稳赚🤦 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

哎～真的硬被华尔街薅羊毛，韩国人毫无招架之力。韩国人本来就喜欢熬夜，秃头多，毛本来就没几根了，还要被美国人薅，这下彻底要被薅秃了🫠 救救韩国🇰🇷，李叔你快出来说话啊🤣，你不会要绝食抗议吧🤦 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/gfbgDLov4l

最后补充下个人操作，我已经昨天 mu 调仓到 dram，在海力士上线前不会再有任何操作，买的就是海力士上线带来的行情，所以耐心等待周五开奖。 你说周五会不会破发？会不会像今天这样又是 sell the news？其实最近行情动荡，低迷，对那天来说是好事，期待越低，质疑声越大，看空越多，破发概率越小，上涨概率越高。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

超浓鸡汤上线 财报就是这样，和赌其实没啥区别，但我一直坚信好消息就是好消息。这份财报依旧非常漂亮，唯一遗憾的是韩国罢工增加了10%的工资支出，不然将远超预期，不知道现在的三星员工是哭还是笑。 存储基本叙事没有任何变化，依旧缺存储，卖方依旧拥有绝对定价权，28 年前不会有任何新增产能，市场资本支出依旧强劲，需求依旧旺盛，AI依旧是主线，算力依旧紧缺。其实啥都没变，变的只是人心。 市场质疑存储的声音很大，主要是涨多了、赚太多了、资本支出不可持续，但这些担忧有的是伪命题，有的是脑补臆想，有的是市场鬼故事。其实财报早就给出了答案，市场却装作看不见。 好在周五海力士就上了，韩国棒子实力还是不行，被美国人按在地上薅羊毛。目前看只能被华尔街捡便宜，不过华尔街愿意捡，原因也是看涨海力士。只要这一点确定，就没问题。希望海力士一飞冲天，带飞整个纳斯达克。 多头不哭，抱一抱，摸摸头，天塌不下来，一切会好起来的。🥰🥰 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

简略版鸡汤，你们先喝。 财报很好，没有问题，但是韩国那边跌了。还是出现了 sell the news。说实话有点失望。我本以为这份财报 pricein 的概率很低，看来还是低估市场了，财报真的是无论好坏，无论是谁都会给你强制五五开的事件😭 不过我对存储的观点不变，好消息就是好消息，市场只是在交易，但是他不是瞎，好财报下跌其实也算日常了，最后都是会修复的🙏 韩国棒子跳海去吧，让你们闹加薪，让你们罢工，这下搬石头砸自己脚了吧😂 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Was a sad few months for $RDDT. But glad it's finally back above $200. Reddit was doing: - $663M revenue w/ 91.5% gross margins - $204M GAAP net income - 45%+ fwd Y/Y growth after 69%+ growth. - Net profit is ~30.7% of revenue Felt very weird to see a profitable company get dragged down after earnings. But in hindsight, given the increase hyperscaler capex, the drop felt more like it's more relative opportunity cost more than fundamentals? Since a lot of inflow poured into $MU / Sk Hynix that are bottlenecked into 2029. Or with laser bottlenecks like $LITE that last into 2029 as well. Same thing happens in reverse after selloffs ig, even if fundamentals didn't change. Been seeing a lot of noise with memory optimization or Chinese players... but don't quite think you sign 16T+ LTAs if memory was getting flooded or not used anytime soon. Same with optical players... if in earnings, they state anything they make gets bought, I don't quite think a lot of the noise has material effect on their fundamentals. Regardless, nice to see some recovery with familiar faces like $HOOD, $HIMS, and $RDDT though.

It’s interesting to witness psychology around valuation anchoring + scarcity. Retail, for example, are buying Figure, last valued at ~$39B through CEFs… At $158B, since it’s private, round 4x valuations. Then Agility Robotics $CCXI, which has broader commercialization. Is at ~$4.3B pre-money and publicly available before the name change. At closer pricing that $AMZN, $NVDA, SoftBank, and Foxconn vaulted it at. Yet some end up paying 4-5x prices of already hiked private investor rounds for exposure… I’m convinced if Agility raised a very small private round at $39B as well from $2.5B (which it definitely could), to set a valuation anchor. Investors would be foaming in the mouth for a private allocation, just due to psychology rather than underlying fundamentals. We’ve also seen this anchoring with $SPCX recently at $1.75T. Peak market inefficiency? Or lack of knowledge from retail?

$NVDA refuting recent Kyber delay claims: “Our roadmap is intact”. lol, damage has already been done with stocks in many markets (esp. in Taiwan/Japan/Soutj Korea) crashing after the “report” https://t.co/ijHggRm1fu

I’d like to give a special thank you to Bloomberg’s piece on $META compute. As well as the 2 back to back bear posts on CPO delays. But I believe thematically photonics, memory, energy, and physical AI will outperform in the long run. https://t.co/vghsG5H2w5

Wow, $WULF signs a $19B DC lease with Anthropic today. Probably a very positive tailwind for the Neocloud/Colo sector. https://t.co/82tncsG3us

Retail: buys memory, optical, upstream semi names. Media: “retail bubble drives AI meme stock bubble higher”. Institutions that do the exact same thing, with the exact same names: Media: “Institutions make record profits by betting on what goes inside AI Server Racks”. https://t.co/lWDCl0Sxbe

As investors debates whether the enormous sums being poured into AI will ever pay off, Millennium-backed hedge fund manager Val Zlatkov is making record profits by betting on what goes inside AI server racks that helps them spit out eerily good responses https://t.co/fWj69VQlQW https://t.co/lnlJOtnE4a

I find it hard for any bears to defend against this humanoid bull case. https://t.co/aWWPYAvSIa

Kelper upgrades $XFAB to "Buy" citing: - Melexis demand strengthening “week-after-week, day-after-day” (their lead customer). - AI giving XFAB a structural growth leg with SiC, GaN, and photonics offsetting auto cyclicality. - Scarce Western speciality foundries like $SILEX commanding higher multiples. "X-Fab remains the cheapest specialty foundry peer on every multiple, trading at 4.8x 2027 EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 14.5x" I treat this as good signal for the core fundamentals improving like auto players. But in terms of unpriced long term growth vectors, I'm personally looking at XFAB from a different angle in terms of photonics growth with photonixfab. Given $NVDA as a potential key driver. But it's hard for traditional firms to price these types of active developments into valuation models until there's volume contracts.

I personally think $SIVE can be the next $LITE. In the past few months alone, we've seen: 1. Partnerships with O-Net pushing ELS into mass production 2. $JBL 1.6T LRO mass production signals with "relatively dramatic moats" for pluggables using Sivers. 3. $GFS SCALE reference level laser for hyperscalers with pluggable, NPO, CPO. -> -> where $AMD and others went to GFS for CPO. 4. Ayar, which joined $NVDA NVLink for CPO -> -> which removed Lumentum/Macom from their website and likely made Sivers their primary laser supplier. -> -> AlChip likely Trainium win from Amazon price placement (Ayar's customer) -> -> GUC rack level design in with Ayar. -> -> Raised $500m for mass production by AMD, Alchip, Mediatek, and NVIDIA 5. ~ $AEVA starting HVM H2 2026. 6. $POET starting HVM H2 2026 with hyperscaler suppliers like Lumilens ("top 3 hyperscaler initial customer") 7. TFLN + $SIVE CW Lasers with Lightium 8. Likely direct relationships with $MRVL Celestial and CPO players like Lightelligence/Lightmatter. 9. Multiple new undisclosed relationships for pluggables following Jabil in their quarterly transcripts With new Trendforce reports that $AMD and other hyperscalers are trying to source LTAs for CW laser sources, serving as a direct catalyst for independent CW sources. So when hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to O-Net are incentivized to mass produce as many as they can: That's very material for revenue for Sivers relative to current valuations, and it looks like just a waiting game. Even in the past week: - $SIVE raised an oversubscribed institutional round for volume ramp... This is very nuanced since Sivers is fab-lite so it's not going to in-house foundry capex to scale. Likely toward Win Semi and others (they mentioned other partners too), for laser scaling + foundry allocations. So this is likely signaling material for revenue ramp is coming. - Sivers also mentioned NASDAQ listing completion targeted in the next few quarters (probably H2 2026 or Q1 2027 is my est. timeframe). This would fund M&A efforts, since it's impossible with the fundraising environments in local Swedish markets. As for becoming the next $LITE: M&A makes their lasers more valuable, so downstream IP acqusition -> into contract manufacturing like $FN, and others to make the full 1.6T pluggable or optical engines. Is how they get there, since laser array ASP scaling that people are modeling off of, wouldn't command a $60B+ valuations. There's going to be a lot of bridge architectures like NPO/pluggables, etc and noise around certain architectural delays in the meantime. But markets misunderstand laser companies like $LITE, $SIVE, $AAOI and others are used across different architectures compared to if you just look at certain passive optical components. So markets see "CPO delay headlines" algos sell off laser companies that benefit from other architectures. Being included in the pluggable 1.6T ramp to CPO scale out (Which Sivers is included in), helps bridge revenue waiting gaps until scale up inflection point H2 2027. I'm personally holding long term, since I haven't seen a ~$1.4B company mapping to this many hyperscalers before. TLDR: - Waiting on volume ramps from different architectures to play out across their hyperscaler supplier mapping -> 1.6T LRO/CPO scale out late H2 2026 start into high volume ramp 2027 -> H2 2027 CPO scale up volume ramp - Waiting on NASDAQ listing likely H2 2026/Q1 2027 for M&A efforts to fully take off, unless Sivers get more creative with equity financing in the meantime.

Nomura’s report cites $AXTI and $IQE as the leading players. Then regarding ASP updates: - 2in InP substrate price hike 42-76% - 3in InP substrates price hike 78% - 2in EML Epiwafer price hike 50-75% - 3in CW Epiwafer price hike ~40%+ - Prices lower domestically in China as expected. Hyperscalers bottlenecking upstream photonics confirmation validation… on all fronts from pricing, demand, to supply shortages. My personal expectation was that price hikes would keep going up like $SNDK given ramping optical demand. We’ll see if this turns out right given another 2 years of the demand curve.

@aleabitoreddit Hi stock God, you said before $SIVE has potential to be the next $LITE. What milestones do you expect $SIVE to hit in order to achieve this? Is it simply mass production of lasers for pluggable first and then CPO/NPO? How does M&As play into this?

Came across an interesting report from SVRC Research called "State of Robotics 2026", published in April. Which listed: 1. Figure AI 2. Agility Robotics $CCXI 3. Apptronik 4. $TSLA 5. Boston Dynamics 6. Physical Intelligence 7. 1X Technologies 8. $AMZN Robotics 9. Covariant 10. Skild AI As the National Champions of the United States robotics program. "The United States leads the world in where robotics is heading: Fundation models, OpenAI-style scaling laws applied to action, autonomous vehicles. While losing the race on where robotics is shipping today." Then it frames: 1. Rare Earths Exposure: from Neodymium for motors to samarium-cobalt for high-temp applications as a critical vulnerability. 2. Actuator dependency. Series elastic actuators, quasi-direct-drive motors, and precision reducers overwhelmingly sourced from Japan, Germany, and China As one of the main vulnerabilities alongside Manufacturing velocity/data collection cost/regulations. Then their take was: "With at least six well-funded US humanoid companies competing for a market still in early formation, we expect at least two significant consolidation events (acquisition or merger) in 2027". With Logistics / E-commerce (like $AMZN / $FDX) and Automotive from $GM to $FORD as being the immediate top use cases for deployment. I think it's just interesting to see a lot of my points I've been talking about reiterated by research firms. Regardless, I do think it's going to be a major frontier race between the US and China. Agility Robotics (which I own), Tesla, Figure, and Apptronik as leaders representing the USA. Competing against Unitree, AGIbot, Ubtech, and others in China.

Just some consolidated updates on memory: - $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized. - Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream. - MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond - UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est. - UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter. - Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations. Something to note: Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters. But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation. I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names... I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.

很多人问为什么要换成 DRAM？理由其实非常朴实： 1. 海力士 ADR 上市，势必修复估值，海力士上涨概率 99.99…%，但买 MU 可能无法参与其中。 2. DRAM 有 20%左右的海力士，对 DRAM 一定是利好。 3. MU 长期作为美国投资者海力士的平替版，海力士上市后，MU 的稀缺唯一性不复存在，短期会被市场二选一抛弃。 4. 海力士大概率高开，你难以便宜价格买入。 5. 综上，MU 存在抛压风险，DRAM 有直接利好，海力士大概率买不到，提前切换到 DRAM 是规避风险、防止踏空的最优解。 补充一点：美光若因市场二选一出现短期急跌，将是一个黄金坑，参考 80 块钱的 RKLB，到时再买回 MU 可能是一鱼多吃的剧本。 当然，剧本很美好，现实很残酷，一切以实际为准，不排除以上分析全错的可能🤔 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord 在个人资料。

Looks like there's a high power cylindrical cell / BBU cell shortage (aka: bottleneck): - Samsung SDI supplies the cells to Simplo, which assembles them into BBUs for $META to $AMZN. - As demand from data centers has increased, production of Samsung SDI's cylindrical cells has also risen sharply. - Industry sources said Panasonic, Samsung are experiencing supply shortages for BBU cells. So main beneficiaries imo look like: - Samsung SDI (KRX: 006400) / Panasonic Energy as cleaneset winners - Murata (6981) / this keeps showing up everywhere with MLCC and others lol - LG Energy (KRX: 373220) / incoming There's not really much direct US players? But adjacent read through like $VRT, $ETN or $BWA / $ENS. Not quite in my domain emphasis cup of tea though. I wouldn't conflate this as all shortages having a massive TAM, but there could be opportunities...

Leaked Anthropic docs show plans to secure 1.4GW capacity from Australia, amounting to ~$21.6B. Recently $IREN, $SHAZ, and other Neoclouds have been building sovereign DCs in Australia. Guess like a lot of things are stating to make more sense connection wise? (disclosure: no open positions in any of the above).

Nikkei - $JD E-Commerce Giant CEO warns "Robots Will Replace 700,000 Delivery Workers". Per FT's earlier piece last month: The 700,000 delivery personnel working for the firm will be replaced by robots, highlighting how rapid automation has become a new threat to China's already severe job market. Liu Qiangdong, revealed that the company has signed contracts with approximately 120 schools to retrain its delivery workers, enabling them to transition into new roles such as robot repair and maintenance... "Beijing has started to track AI’s hit to jobs as a national priority." This follows other corporate strategy reports like $AMZN, of avoiding 600,000 future hires with robots. But it's very interesting to see the shift in worker roles to robot support. Maybe $DASH to $UBER to $MELI, we'll all start to see this rollout following China. There's a lot of retail disbelief over humanoid/robotics commercialization. But feels like the direction industry is heading down is pretty clear.

an apple a day keeps the bottleneck away

UDN Money report "殺翻光通訊後 SemiAnalysis 惹議 業界揭其劣跡 許多公司慘遭魔手": - SemiAnalysis, released a report in June, questioning the timing of the launch of the CPO on the grounds of low yield and delay, which caused the photonics sector to collapse. - The agency then partnered with Tema to launch a photonics ETF. - The shares held in the ETF under the trading code LAZR happened to be the photonics stocks that were mentioned negatively in the report $HIMX and $LITE, which were specifically targeted negatively in their article "Powered Down, Lights Off", have been bought in Semianalysis and Tema's new ETF after the optical sector crash.

Bruh, when I first tried out ChatGPT around 2023, I thought it LLMs were garbage at coding. 3Y later, Mythos is considered a modern day “nuke” for cybersecurity. People keep saying humanoids can’t do X or Y task today like plumbing or DC wiring. No sht, but it’s about where things are heading over the few years. And it’s clear to me and VC apparently that we’ve just hit the inflection point where soon: majority of labor you think is human-only, can be replaced by robotics/humanoids. You're already seeing this too with internal strategies: Remember $AMZN leaked strat planned to avoid hiring 600,000 workers by them with robots like $CCXI? If you see past the "assistive robotics" public image framing to prevent protest, it's clear the goals is maximizing, opex efficiency. The main areas I think are safe however are regulation bound (eg. Medicine), ultra specialized labor, or require human/emotional connections. But I think you'll be blown away by the rate of change when frontier technologies become national security races between US and China... especially when China is currently in the lead.

TIL floating DC and ocean compute exists? Apparently it’s free cooling + optimal for places in tight geography… It’s going to be wild taking a cruise ship, and passing by a bunch of $NBIS or Samsung floating AI DCs one day. If this ever becomes a thing like orbital compute? https://t.co/Ki2RqNc2xT

This will age poorly

I'm bearish on humans. Hard to see people still having a job if humanoids come out at <$15K mass production. No insurance, no JP Morgan HR cannon scandals. And can do everything a person can, but better + 24/7.

Just some public market read through from Chinese private VC markets: Institutions are pouring funds into physical AI and world models. 1. Large models / LLMs: ~$23.56B 2. AI infrastructure + technical layer: ~$15.74B 3. Embodied intelligence / physical AI: ~$13.36B 4. AIGC applications: ~$8.79B 5. Autonomous driving + other Top-20 cluster: ~$3.82B, but not apples-to-apples with the above. Some notes: - "Early-stage pure foundation-model funding is basically closed". Looks like more funding is just being put into existing leaders and going into World Model companies. My guess is that we'll likely see the same in the US with Anthorpic/OpenAI consolidation. - "World models have become the biggest consensus in early-stage investment." I said months ago 4D AI/World Models would be the most interesting moving forward, and called out $AEVA as potential exposure. But there's not exactly any pure play exposure. But probably next we'll wait for the next IPOs here in this sector maybe H1 next year. - AIGC application sector is the most mature for AI technology commercialization "Artificial Intelligence Generated Content commercialization is mature but no clear winner yet". Makes sense. in the US there's stuff like Grok Imagine, Google Nano Banana, etc. no clear winner too. especially for video. _ TLDR: Continued funding into AI infrastructure/semiconductor supply chains. Huge capital rotation influx into physical AI / embodied brain / humanoids + world models from capital inflow. Consolidation around leading frontier model companies. Personally just validated what I've been focusing on with Agility Robotics and physical AI players (eg. leaderdrive, harmonic, etc) in public markets... As new potential opportunities in terms of capital rotation. But sadly no world model pure play exposure yet.

So positive readthrough on the upstream glass substrate supply chain: - Sumitomo Chemical and Samsung Electro-Mechanics formally establish JV in Korea within the year to handle the glass core substrate business (GlaSSEM). Main thing was timeline/funding was finalized: "full scale commercialization targeted H2 2027" for the Samsung/Dongwoo JV / KRW 482.1B planned capital. Think the "full scale commercialization" is the word to highlight, since that would imply timeline moving faster than expected than starting ramp or early production H2 2027. So... TGV/LIDE with $LPK (that I own)/E&R and Onto in terms of yields are just some examples of possible sector beneficiaries. Since companies like LPK stated in the past: “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment” and targeted "70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp". These players also typically have revenue pulled forward, since equipment orders during capex cycle hit before actual ramp. Regardless, just an update on developments.

Be SemiAnalysis: - Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash. Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted - Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.

SemiAnalysis on $META “overcapacity” and market reactions with $NBIS and others: “We believe Meta’s datacenter and compute will accelerate”. “Capex in 2027 will be shockingly high”. Recent global crash, especially in the photonics sector was stupid… Off misleading narratives of Meta dropping out of AI race to sell excess compute… When in fact things are likely to accelerate from Meta catching up to GPT5.5. I’m personally expecting a sharp V recovery, especially with the names that crashed 50%+ from this narrative.

LeaderDrive (688017) is now at all time highs after hitting a 20% limit up today. Looks like robotics sector excitement is palpable… Largely driven by US and China’s frontier humanoid companies with $CCXI / Agility Robotics As well as Unitree (STAR listing approved today) both going public.

Lot of misinformation recently about $META. Recently major journals have been stating “AI AGENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HASN'T 'ACCELERATED IN THE WAY WE EXPECTED” To push some narrative about Meta dropping out of the race or lowered capex: As Wang clarified: Zuckerberg was talking about the industry as a whole.

$META: upcoming AI model “Watermelon” has caught up to OpenAI’s GPT 5.5. Wang noted it uses an "order of magnitude" more compute than its predecessor “Avocado”. Who said they were out of the AI race again? https://t.co/X2sOgMRTuw

$AXTI signs 3-year wafer deal with $COHR. "Coherent will make a prepayment of $22,288,500 to AXT-Tongmei in exchange for a committed supply capacity." https://t.co/nTkyJSMo96

Does anyone else have this annoying seed planted in their mind too? Whenever I see $MRVL drop, I get reminded of Jensen’s comment “The next $1T company”.

Just this hour: BlueCrest Capital Management and its Billionaire Michael Platt crossed the threshold and disclosed a 5.6% stake in $CCXI. I knew Agility Robotics would be popular… https://t.co/n7bqpmCykd

Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again… UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”. Regardless: $AEHR down -18.3% $AAOI down -17.13% $SIVEF down -15.4% $SNDK down -14.8% $TER down -13.8% $GLW down -11.4% $MRVL down -11.2% $LITE down -10.2% $NBIS down -7.8% Getting PTSD from Bloombert’s previous misleading report on AMD/Nvidia global export controls earlier this year that crashed semi stocks. FYI: Meta doesn’t randomly buy $48B+ worth of neocoud contracts if they overbuilt capacity and can cut capex… Markets are stupid sometimes.

Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo. Personal Rankings: 1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI 2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company) 3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now. With Tesla likely taking the lead a year from now. So at $16, you have a ~$4B MC pre-money humanoid player. Which is already inside $AMZN and $MELI (ideal use cases to start out, before step-functioning to general-use), with $AMZN, $NVDA, Softbank, Foxconn, and others as investors. NFA, but at those valuations... there's direct exposure for the first ever humanoid player today, that's likely further ahead than Figure for commercialization. No hard feelings about Robostrategy, but it's over 4x+ NAV: Which would value Figure at $156B... While there's the #1 commercialized humanoid player with Agility at $4B today. So my personal preference is $CCXI.