I’m just posting this since people seem really curious about X’s revenue sharing program. Genuinely didn’t expect to get seen 100M+ times every 2 weeks! Would keep doing the same thing tho, even if it were free and I just had a few friends from $RDDT to share ideas with. https://t.co/UikUTLarwV

AI 概念股目前已占标普 500 指数总权重的 39%。39%放在其他板块已经是天文数字了。但是我说过格局要打开，你觉得多了，那是你的碳基脑子在拖你后腿。🧠 我认为这个占比应该要99%，甚至伯克希尔、可口可乐也应该参与人工智能研发，蒸馏出巴菲特数字人、可口可乐大模型。 为什么是99%，而不是100%，因为我严谨。🤔🤔 Discord在主页，buy the dip，长期持有。

In terms of personal notes: 1. Priortech owns 21% of $CAMT, ~1.35x their MC, seems more like holding co. 2. Bit Digital people kept shouting, but NAV discount is not clean $WYFI, lot of dilution + not AI parent. 3. Wistron (3231) is the best one I've seen since $SIVE + Ayar + Wiwynn are one of my favorite trio. ~$16.2B MC, Q1 revenue up a ridiculous amount with 144% Y/Y growth. Owns 35.46% of Wiwynn, which is ~0.66x of MC. I'd expect Wiwynn to keep on growing. 4. Sin-American Silicon 5483 does own 46.64% of GlobalWafers (6488). MC is $3.5B, stake value is ~$7.9B, but not exactly growing too fast independently, though it's heavily trading heavily discount to NAV. 5. Iljin Holdings owns 42.99% of Iljin Electric, it's ~$0.22B MC vs. ~$1.13B NAV holding. This was transformer/cable DC related. But again idk if I trust korean stocks for NAV unlock, probably better for activist investors. 6. Simmtech Holdings was ~$0.17B MC vs. ~$1.0B of parent, which also looks ridiculous. So 6x+ NAV. PCB substrate related name. Also another prob don't trust korean governance type name. I think both $ACMR and WUS have H-Share subsidiary listing soon, and those were the biggest NAV discounts with independent growth. Then you have a highly successful activist going after WUS so I'd expect some middle ground there. So maybe I'll put more concentration into those on top of what I already own Monday, we'll see. And Wistron was growing very fast independently. I'm still doing research, normally this goes in shower thoughts since I haven't formally made a conclusion, but thought others might be interested.

Wow, I completely missed this with $LPK meeting notes. And I think markets did too. My biggest takeaway: - NASDAQ listing is actively on their radar and are in discussions. - 70% market share targeted, unholy target. - TAM greatly exceeds former projections. - See a 4-5 base case of players this year with orders. - Industry is ready for high volume ramps. I do think LPK is very undervalued based on these discussions (disclosure: own positions).

Remind me whenever I call out a bottleneck, I should go long myself. Just floated this idea out around MLCC bottlenecks awhile back. Taiyo Yuden up 211.38% $VSH up 146.15% Murata up 155.43% Within the last 2 months... Feels bad. https://t.co/rwHNVYCuk0

I think something to highlight also is not all my ideas are green, especially on short term timeframes! My core three themes are Neoclouds (Energy), Memory, and Photonics. And I'm glad I chose the literal top performers for each segment from $NBIS to $EWY leaps to $SIVE. However, I still have pretty large losses following the false analyst report on CPO delays that $NVDA refuted: That nuked 3 of my TW CPO longs from Foci, Msscorp, Xintec and others. (which are heavily red). Shunsin / Win Semi are holding up much better though. Some of the other ones in Japan that I've mentioned like Towa, Harmonic Drive, NCI, etc. are performing much better following short-term volatility. As for Korea yes I have PTSD for from Auros and now Foosung that are both both red (I didn't own 093370 though, just got PTSD watching price action). Idk if I'll touch Korea again, just way too volatile. But I still think those will end up green eventually following Sk hynix/samsung qualifications + HVM, and the future japanese supply chain shutdown. I also did change some of my previous long ideas like $XLU following the Iran War nuking all chances of rate cuts from 3-4 down to 0, and that didn't play out too well. Three software names I mentioned previously like $TTD, $META ended up red. $SNAP, I also changed my thesis after noticing the endless SBC accounting methods. $RDDT idea was finally in the green from $130 -> $170 after a long time. But I think the vast majority of my ideas like $MRVL, $NBIS, $ARM, $INTC, $MU, $LITE, SK Hynix, Samsung, for larger cap. Down to $AXTI, $LITE, $AAOI, $RPI, $IQE, and others for smaller cap positions directionally play out pretty well. With random stuff like $SIMO, $HPS.A, $TSEM, $AEHR, $LPK, $SOI, $ALRIB, and so on all ended up turning out aight too. The blended average is kinda overwhelmingly green since majority of my long ideas are triple digit YTD. But I've definitely missed a few. Also entry point is really important too... I mentioned $AAOI at $30 or $AXTI at ~$13, but not everyone has the same entry point. So if someone bought AOI at $220 and it dropped to $160, I'd feel bad. But regardless, I'd prefer to judge how ideas play out on medium term timeframes over a few months rather than a few weeks.

@aleabitoreddit Appreciate you keeping these calls real.

$LPK Meeting Notes (not meant to be official guidance just a summary of what I heard) It's incredibly bullish imo a lot of great info but I'll leave that to the reader to decide. Most salient points are in bold 1. Industry is ready for first high volume ramps 2. Sees a minimum of 3 players initiating purchases (4 or 5 base case) this year with around 3-10 machine orders each... 3. Previous delays are not down to lide as it was production ready but down to independent metalization which was immature... this is now more or less solved 4. Last year the internal assessment was an addressable market of 500 million euros... this has changed and will greatly exceed this. Company intends to update this model soon 5. Customers are now showing more willingness to take on risk 6. CEO's target is 70% market share 7. Share of glass in total package technologies in 2030 could be anywhere from 30% on the consrvative side to 80% on the more optimistic side. (this is not market share btw) 8. Rev per system is something like 1 million euros... for initial ramp up 3-10 mill per buyer depending on how many systems are purchased 9. 100 million machine orders from a single customer in the future is something they stated they have to be ready for (100 mill rev on a single order!) Scaling strategy... 10. Solar rev down but very strong potential once perovskite cells enter high volume stage (technological transition) 11. Not surprised by Price action and believes it's reasonably priced 12. Advanced packaging rev will be significantly greater than what other segments deliver in th 13. LIDE is only the entry ticket, there are many other adjacent rev opportunities in advanced packaging 14. Listing on a high volume exchange (like NASDAQ) is actively on their radar and discussions

@aleabitoreddit 如果找到了能告诉一下吗？谢谢

Jim Cramer gave $SPCX his blessing. https://t.co/DSbyBt9f0D

@aleabitoreddit Optoelectronics 138080

专门写给我的中文读者： 绿的谐波（LeaderDrive，688017，577.3亿人民币）是我在布局人形机器人赛道时最青睐的中国上市标的。 他们的业务涵盖： 谐波减速器（据称占有超过60%的国内市场份额，以及1800多家全球客户） 人形机器人旋转关节减速器 直线执行器 电机/关节，以及许多其他核心零部件。 并且他们正在进军行星滚柱丝杠（planetary roller screws）领域。 目前占据着绝对的主导地位：超过60%的国内市场份额以及1800多家全球客户。 主要客户包括优傲机器人（Universal Robots）、优必选（UBTech）、智元机器人（Agibot），而特斯拉（Tesla）、Figure 以及绝大多数其他人形机器人研发商都很可能是他们的潜在客户。 如果你看一下这些零部件的 BOM（物料清单），粗略估计它们占到了每台研发出的人形机器人的 4-15%，随着他们进军更多细分领域，这个比例可能还会更高。 我认为没有人能对这类公司进行精确的财务建模，其前景更多取决于未来几年内会有多少人形机器人实现量产。 这其实是对一家能够在每台生产出的人形机器人中占据可观份额的公司，进行的一种方向性做多（directional long）。 在可扩展的规模化量产方面，中国显然是该领域的领导者，许多西方玩家无法将成本降到绿的谐波那样的水平。 随着我们向实体人工智能（physical AI）的规模化迈进，我极其看好机器人这个赛道。

Imo harmonic drive (6324) one of the better humanoid exposure names at $4B valuation listed in GS research report. Personally I picked some up for exposure. Chinese competitors might be used for mass production. But personal preference in investing in Western supply chains + build them up.

我应该是全网最勤劳的多头了，在至暗时刻，不停的鼓励大家不要卖出你的股票，不要放弃，坚持buy the dip，被人笑称鸡汤博主，我其实很喜欢这个名称，只要我的鸡汤对你有用，我就觉得我的文字是有意义的。 Discord在主页，buy the dip，长期持有。 https://t.co/A1yUhVkqiz

$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC. Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI. If we look at the timeline and speculated customers: Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META). - Probably Google? Aehr bought Incal, who was speculated to be used by Google for their TPUs. Feb 26th: $14 million from AI lead customer (likely $AMD, $NVDA) - Probably $AMD here for Instinct MI300/MI400. March 3rd: Lead silicon photonics customer for one FOX-XP system (likely $INTC siph) - Very likely $INTC has been their lead customer. March 31st: Initial order from major new silicon photonics customer (likely $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO ) - New customer (rules out Intel), prob one of these transitioning to 800G/1.6T silicon photonics transceivers (All speculative, very confidential BOM) Regardless. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR. Could be next earnings. Or two quarters from now. But feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.

I'm long $TSEM, the $TSM of photonics. My top two picks for CPO are $SOI and Tower Semi. Given the $NVDA GTC catalyst on new photonic related architecture next week: I expect Tower Semi to get a huge catalyst. Nvidia laready directly collaborated with Tower to scale 1.6T silicon photonics last month (hint hint for GTC), likely pushing the downstream players to use it. And now, Tower is the leading supplier of 1.6T SiPh PICs and the primary foundry for scale-up CPO architectures. (the other being global foundries) From my forward est: 2028 Forward P/E: ~16.8x to ~18.1x (Tower set a target $2.84B revenue by 2028, with ~31.7% operating margin, ~$750M in net profit) The thing to note is over 70% of their planned SiPh capacity is already reserved through 2028. And photonics haven't even ramped up yet. So, I expect them to strongly beat earning projections due to extreme photonics scaling + allocations price hikes that's not modeled into projections. Also, $TSEM is heavily de-risked by 70% of capacity already being reserved. MC is likely due to $TSEM being a very obscure upstream player in the photonics supply chain. But I expect the $NVDA GTC conference to be that catalyst that brings it to premium valuations. I'm long $TSEM as an asymmetrical upside for upstream photonics foundry layer.

Today, Anthropic called out DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Minimax for distillation. OpenAI has also faced the same issues with Chinese labs. The most braindead fix nobody is doing: KYC verification. Every financial institution from $HOOD to $IBKR does this to track flow of funds (eg. Persona selfie / ID) Same should apply to token flows. American Frontier Labs should start doing this soon for their latest models. I'm sure they care about frictionless growth, but this is national security at risk and people/enterprises only need to go through this process once. This is by far the easiest fix that can be done in a day. Chinese labs will continue to find bypasses if this is not done.

If you're bullish on DeepSeek LLMs with Engram (v4), going long on CXL seems like a idea. - $ALAB (Leo) - $AVGO - $MRVL are your big three in the US. Especially Astera. If it becomes a new architectural paradigm, companies like Astera maybe would sell millions of net-new CXL controllers to manage the external memory pools. That being said, lot of reports are usually sensational around DeepSeek (internal benchmarks perform different than IRL), and might just be relegated to offline batch processing Recent drop across the board presents a good opportunity for these three.

@Jason I'm 100% sure $UBER would not partner with Waymo in all cities. If you were Uber, why would you funnel all your users into the Waymo app one day? Instead of partnering with another FSD-4 player $NBIS avride that they partially own + doesn't have a standalone competitor? https://t.co/BE9J3sl72O