来吧，妹妹，看好你哟！秀下肌肉吧！😉 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

AI 是不断发展的，技术是不断迭代的，需求是不断涌现的，存储却是到头的。🤣🤣🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/asP0nhjV8L

美伊战争一定会在中期选举前结束。一定的。选举中的川普是超人。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

美光今天不涨 10 个点，我就当是跌。我是美光最严厉的父亲。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

其实也没啥利好，就跟之前下跌一样，也没啥利空。波动的只是股价，变化的只是人心。美光不会因为上涨就变得更好，也不会因为下跌就一文不值。美光还是那个美光，投资真的是一个非常长远的事情，没有人可以预测波动，也不要因为波动去改变决定，都是噪音。 我对美光的看法从来没有变过：我找不出比美光更值得投资的公司，如果不买美光，我不知道我还可以买啥。既然如此，我为什么要卖出？ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

川普是对的😅虽然这会让少数族裔不满，但是对于美国来说真的是对的🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/YZ1HPV4C6J

Feels like the public interpretation is all wrong… I’m pretty sure $MSFT backing out on NScale deal is bullish for Neoclouds like $NBIS or even $IREN with energized capacity with Microsoft? Pretend Microsoft just ate a bunch of Chipotle burittos: - They order toilet paper delivery scheduled Q1 2027 - NScale says: sorry 3-4+ year delay of the toilet paper (into 2030’s) because of UK grid constraints - Microsoft still urgently needs toilet paper so they will get it elsewhere The cancellation does send warnings about what happens if a Neocloud can’t execute on contracted demand. But that just makes the other toilet paper sellers more valuable since Microsoft will go elsewhere for supply.

anthrocip之后musk加入无产阶级，美国人的大锅饭时代开启了。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Last major $SIVE disclosure was 100M CW DFB laser capacity Q4 2027. And a new foundry partner (that makes 2 including Win Semi). Expected $JBL revenue coming in H1 2027 (with lasers for Jabil's 1.6T LRO scaling up H2 2027). There's channel checks along the way like CIOE where Sivers was engaged with Chinese pluggable makers + laser ASPs being raised. 70mW/100mW ranges were the most tight to Chinese pluggable makers, which was surprising. Biggest industry read through was $LITE selling out into 2029, making agreements for 2030, and having hyperscalers pay for capacity expansion for 2031. I don't think anyone has enough information to do any sort of accurate modeling for $SIVE like you can for $AAOI given they don't release product breakdown + capacity targets by quarter. The 200mW NPO lasers Sivers is sampling is likely different ASP than your 70mW lasers shipped to pluggable makers. And your custom CPO lasers are different pricing too. Like all sampling/qualification players from $AEHR to $AAOI back in 2025, usually the risk/reward comes in whether qualifications convert and what new customers they have, which is always a risk. In a bull case, if $SIVE comes online with 300m laser supply (2:1 implied ratio, already has "tremendous" supply online from likely US fab) during a structural shortage. Pluggable players like $JBL, 6 other vendors. $GFS as the reference design laser for their CPO/NPO platform. Your minor players vendors like $POET, $AEVA and other players end up scaling. And all the other custom products they hinted they were working on in the past for CPO years back. I think the probability that they cook is higher since there's so many ongoing qualifications during a bottleneck. We've already seen ownership changes from Swedish investors to US/International retail from $SIVE shareholder disclosures. My guess is that trends institutional from retail before US listing next year amid the market correction. Think people forgot institutions have already financed their expansion, which was a 700M SEK round 100%+ ago (multiple times oversubscribed). And that $SIVE uses primarily external fabs, so it's not the same as a lot of the major financing concerns affecting Neoclouds. Anyway, up to management execution, I'm not running Sivers so no clue what other companies are working with them now, whether it's Cambridge or some other US player like Semtec. TLDR: - Just need to wait for earnings for more disclosures around qualifications + partners, only so much public can guess from channel checks and supplier mapping. Not quite the same as $LITE CEO where you can see the guy on Fox news or Bloomberg interviews every week (which is a good thing)

@aleabitoreddit @gogolp9527 What about SIVE? @aleabitoreddit ? Could you please do a post on it with current views vs price action and thesis?

Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America. This will be the first of many.

$LITE CEO interview on demand, counterparty + financing risk: - "CFO of $GOOGL came on and reported capex going up Y/Y, we expect hyperscalers for report an increase in capex in earnings. Based on what we see, we see their spend going up." - "The purchase agreements we have, to a large degree, are noncancellable." - The difference between Lumentum and companies like $AVGO, "we are not as dependent on AI datacenter buildout going forward" There's a conversion between electrical products to optical products" creating structural demand. Q: When do you see able to see yourself having more inventory? (catching up to surge in demand) - When we look at demand, there is "no end in sight" TLDR: Financing risk and demand aren't equally distributed across AI supply chains. But markets are just selling everything off together. As for photonics in specific, I said this before, but increasing optical content per XPU + CPO/NPO adoption keeps going up so we'll likely see sector spend go up, even if aggregate capex goes down. There's the usual "no end to demand in sight" commentary, but $LITE does have capacity commitments into 2029 now... and are negotiating for 2030. (with new information that most of which are likely hyperscalers + non-cancellable) So doesn't quite sound like it's all over for the AI trade, especially photonics.

刚看完摩根士丹利，美银又来补刀了😅 美银最新研报直接把AI算力需求推演到了2030年，估算累计需要约10万亿美元的投资，比目前市场预测还高出2万亿美元！🤣 最有意思的是，市场还在忙着给2028年的存储周期判死刑，美银却已经在研究2030年的算力需求了。 如果未来几年的AI投资需求都可能被严重低估，那HBM、DRAM的长期需求又凭什么提前见顶？😅 我越来越觉得，拿过去几十年的存储周期套这轮AI革命，可能才是最大的认知陷阱。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

只要跌我就买😅，这种情绪不买我对不起自己的良心💓 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/3c7ZOeJgvu

还在担心2028年存储周期见顶？😅 摩根士丹利预测，AI巨头2027年资本开支（含租赁）将达到1.58万亿美元，2028年继续增长至1.81万亿！🤣 这些钱最终都会转化成数据中心、AI服务器和算力设备，而算力规模越大，对HBM、DRAM和SSD的需求自然越高！更何况，AI模型越来越大，推理需求不断爆发，单台服务器需要的存储容量和带宽也在持续提升。也就是说，不仅服务器越建越多，每台服务器需要的存储也越来越多！😅 这才是我长期看多存储的核心逻辑！AI正在重塑整个存储行业的需求天花板，你却还拿过去几十年的周期规律预测未来？是不是有点刻舟求剑了？🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

嘴是不老实的。身体是诚实的，SOXL 出现了创纪录的买入量，相信机构看空的话，却不相信机构在偷偷买。 所以我常说骂完记得买，现在照进了现实🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

"The Precision Of Semis Weakness Is Staggering"... And So Is The Dip-Buying: Levered ETFs See Biggest Inflow Ever https://t.co/0FySWVYtTR

伊朗严重抗议美国封锁海峡行为！再不开海峡，我就要把海峡封了！🤣🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

我没看错吧？贼眉鼠脸的 A 社居然良心发现做出这么浓眉大眼的事情？这变相是等于给市场放水😅大善人啊，这还是资本社会吗🤣 A社赚的钱，通过分红分给美国政府，然后美国政府靠持有5％a社股票又给美国人民发钱 预计 openai、美光、英伟达、高通也会跟上…我说真的，川普真的大统领， 重申：选举中的阿川是超人！！ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

很想涨了！多头永不为奴！ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/B2y5xOTriW

现在这么悲观的情绪，这么恐慌的市场，以现在这种状态进入下周财报季，后面中期大选，再后面圣诞行情，我都不敢想之后会涨成什么样！！ 我非常的确信，今年纳斯达克还会继续破新高，美光继续破新高！！！（插个旗，此时mu：875）。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/JakJZoeBNW

血肉苦弱，机械飞升。人类大脑已经完成历史使命了，接下去的路就让AI继续走吧。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

一二月的时候怕流动性危机，怕资本开支，怕AI泡沫结果啥危机也没有。😂 三月的时候怕美伊危机，然后股价连涨三个月。😂 七月的时候二怕资本开支、二怕AI泡沫，结果后面又V回来了😂 九月的时候怕加息，结果越加越涨😂 十月的时候三怕资本开支、三怕AI泡沫，然后.....（你们完形填空吧） 总结下来今年除了四五六三个月连涨没有怕以外，其他时间都在怕。。。不对，四五六月也在怕，怕回调🤣，所以真怕的人基本也踏空了大部分涨幅，折腾来折腾去不知道YTD有没有正，不知道有没有我死拿着不动收益高🤣 所以也不知道那些人在怕什么，难道是真的怕赚钱吗？ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

其实我不认为这次下跌会持续很长时间。美股并没有根本性的利空，更多都是情绪面上的恐慌，AI泡沫小作文满天飞，但是基本面却很强劲。而且这剧本今年已经说三次了（1-2月、7月、现在），我也不知道为什么还会有人怕，而且美股的基本面其实比年初好上更好了，前面两次都能涨回来，这次只会更快的结束。 所以美股现在估值其实压缩的很厉害，属于五年来的极值，下跌空间非常有限。这和6月狂热之后的回调还是有很大的区别。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

预测一波： 周一：低开大V，收回跌幅横盘。 周二：继续横盘。 周三四五：大涨。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

RT @FoxNews: A 143-year-old French landmark is destroyed after rioters set it ablaze, causing its roof to collapse into the floors below. Local officials say two-thirds of the Limoges Town Hall is gone as violent anti-government agitators torched the building's exterior, in what the officials called a "catastrophe for heritage." The violence comes as more than half a million demonstrators took to the streets nationwide, over the soaring cost of living enter their fourth week across France. Authorities have reported roughly 400 arrests. And the unrest is spreading beyond Limoges. See which other government buildings rioters targeted: https://t.co/9nj3XP2exX

RT @koshercockney: Holy fucking shit. Paris right now, this evening. Police vehicles try to escape with destroyed tyres. https://t.co/hMBZkT2MRL

💪💪💪

BREAKING: Iran says it is open to talks and not seeking nuclear weapons, per Reuters

今年四月发的帖子，16w的阅读量，配合评论区食用最佳。这就是长期持有的价值。 我就是我，从来没有变过。 https://t.co/cGwClChwY1

为什么你会信这个文字游戏。我真是服了你了。。。按你这个说法，标普500 69年历史每一年都是跌的。。。因为他说的是最大回撤。。。哪一年没回撤。。。😂😂你居然拿这个当依据。。。 真相如下：16次中，9次上涨、7次下跌，上涨比例56.25%，平均涨幅+3.98%。 感觉你已经为了看跌而看跌了，我也是吃饱了没事做，跟你争论这个。。。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

@Jaceqemw @hanking66 历史是个好东西。 https://t.co/XgEjMIiqjw

所以，信则有，不信则无。认知决定，不分对错。 华尔街会告诉你是周期，怕扩产。而我看到的是AI改变了所有，从需求端就已经改变了... Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

@hanking66 实际上从所有的存储公司决定扩大产能开始，存储公司就已经不值得买入并持长期持有。长期持有这些存储公司股价会越来越低。因为产能肯定有一天会饱和。还有你这个buy the dip, 长期持有的口号第一个条件是你确定自己足够长寿，第二个条件是买到成长胶而不是买到周期股。

老哥，去年 1 月川马骂战我怎么过来的？关税战的时候我怎么过来的？三月份我怎么过来的？七月份我怎么过来的？你现在问我怎么收场？😅你们到底在怕什么啊？怕赚钱吗？😅我的妈呀… Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

@hanking66 你想过自己将来咋收场吗？ 是退出 X 吗 不然还有脸活着吗

跌归跌，继续一存难求。现实和股价出现背离。那你愿意相信亲眼看到的，还是相信华尔街告诉你的鬼故事。 正常的成年人都会有自己的判断。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

dell

基本面不会撒谎 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

一切都会过去的

接受回调，下跌是市场的一部分

为什么要长期持有？这是美股五年来的走势，你可以看出来除了2022年加息熊市了一整年，基本上还是上涨居多。哪怕把2022年算进去，美股也是一路上涨。可以看出来，做波段的难度明显要比长期持有的难度大非常多，相当于你要在长期上涨的趋势中，抓住那少数的下跌趋势。更不要说，这还是计算绝对高点和低点的范围，如果是普通人，更多的是交易在半山腰，那绿色范围还要小非常多。我认为真有这个能力的人，在市场上不足1%。 一定会有人跟我抬杠，说大盘没有意义，我只能说大盘波段还是稳定规律，有迹可循，如果是个股情况只会更复杂，噪音会更多，对人性的考验只会更大。 我们再来看最后一段的现在，虽然没有明显的下跌趋势，但是在五年中也是非常长的一段时间了（仅此于22年熊市）。如果你炒股的经验不足一年，经历这种行情，你自然就会把这段时间当成是美股的一切，认为我一直说buy the dip，长期持有就是笑话，这种震荡行情不做波段就是傻子。我只是想告诉你，虽然这段周期一直是波动，但这真不能代表美股，我们正在经历一个少有的，有争议的，高度不确定性的时期。 AI带来生产力提升和新的增长空间，同时也伴随着巨额投入、资金集中和杠杆风险，再叠加通胀、利率和地缘冲突，市场当然会反复摇摆。技术进步不会自动消除风险，巨大的机会和剧烈的波动，完全可以同时存在。 我看多AI，不代表我知道它下周怎么走，也不代表这条路上不会有大跌。我的判断是，这场变化还在继续，企业还在投入，商业价值还在兑现。只要公司的基本面没有被破坏、长期逻辑没有改变，我就愿意承受中间的震荡，而不是每跌一次，就把整个判断推倒重来。 长期持有也难，难在你要忍受回撤、质疑，以及别人“早知道高抛低吸就好了”的事后聪明。每一段波动回头看都很好做，真把账户交给当时的自己，又是另一回事😅 对我来说，与其反复猜下一次拐点，不如把精力放在判断公司能不能继续成长上。我要赚的，是企业成长和时代变化的钱。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

拉长时间（退后一步看市场），别踏空（永远待在场内），跌10%会慌的话现在就卖了（跌了都能睡得着的仓位），久期匹配（标的于风险是否匹配），买的是公司不是彩票（关注公司基本面），每次市场下跌我跌得都比市场要多（接受回调，下跌是市场的一部分） 来自彼得林奇的话可能更听得进一点？期待留言区的杠精，去杠一下彼得林奇的理念。

JUST IN: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on the AI market turmoil: "All of this is going to pass"

Just some words of emotional support for your SK Hynix, $SNDK, $MU fanclub. $DELL CEO on memory, suggested: "It's a 4 year problem because there's just not enough supply" Factories take about 4 years to build, meaning new production would emerge 2029 or 2030. and that semiconductor shortages could worsen in 2027 stating: "I do think it gets worse next year in terms of demand and supply". I think it's strange we're getting unprecedented forward visibility with memory... as $GOOGL and richest hyperscalers seek LTAs into 2035. And a major sector crash as well over durability/financing concerns.

看来下周又要买纳指基金了😅 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

大跌有我在，有啥问的，想求抱抱的，快进来吧 https://t.co/3J25rhYZQ5

其实接下来只要证明一件事，后面非硬件公司财报营收超预期增长，这波回调就结束了。 本来就是鬼故事，不就担心大科技没钱烧了吗，ai 是泡沫吗，那营收就是最好的证据。 下周有 meta 谷歌 微软，这三家够证明一切了，特别是 meta，扎克伯格这次就由你拯救世界了！告诉全世界，你不是外行！！ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

人人都在讨论 SOX 会不会打破近20年的连跌纪录，我就在想，这种快20年才遇到一次的极端行情，难道我们只看到了恐慌，就没想过这背后可能藏着多大的机会吗？😅 上次出现类似的极端连跌，后面不也迎来了暴力反弹？难道非要涨回去了，大家才相信机会来了？🤣 AI需求崩了吗？台积电财报暴雷了吗？半导体突然没人要了吗？都没有啊！🤦 基本面没崩，先崩的是市场情绪！跌到这种极端程度，自然会有资金开始寻找机会。钱又不傻，难道放着便宜筹码不捡，非要等涨上去再追？😅 我知道现在大家都很难受，账户天天缩水，很多人甚至连补仓的钱都没有了。但越是这种时候，越要保持清醒！没人知道底在哪里，但恐慌总有退潮的时候。如果长期逻辑没有变，为什么要让短短几天的暴跌，推翻自己几个月甚至几年的判断？ 最可惜的不是没钱抄底，而是熬过了最惨烈的下跌，却在最恐慌的时候把筹码交了出去。😅 喝了这碗热鸡汤，振作起来，真没什么利空，无非就是鬼故事担心市场又没钱了，ai 又要泡沫了，这应该是今年第三回这个剧本了，真别再上当了😅😅别让短期的恐惧，毁掉长期的收益！ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

存是跌了，但那又怎么样？依然一存难求，依然涨价，我看不到任何故事结束的痕迹…如果你因为跌了，就觉得存完蛋了，我说句难听的，不割你割谁… Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/z5Xm1Ej3Az