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美股仙人 2026-08-17 12:57
热巴(mu)1000 是整数位,而且这个位置有大量的套牢盘,很多人都等着解套就跑,包括一些底部抄底的短线也会在这个位置获利了结,所以抛压会比 900 还要大很多。9.30量化启动,会有海量的抛盘,大家管理好预期。 上涨不会一根直线向上,涨涨跌跌才是常态,今天无论结果如何,1000 也只是中途的一个点,我们的目标是 3000🤩,所以拿住了,拿牢了,别下车,别为一点点波动就慌不择路,路很远很长,现在只是起点,别因小失大了,美光会得到他应该有的估值。 就当这份是预制鸡汤,提前送给大家喝了 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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美股仙人 2026-08-17 11:41
华尔街是不是看我发帖啊,我说 3000 他就说三万亿,早知道我喊 5000 了😅😅喊少了 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/Rozjhk5nfh
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美股仙人 2026-08-17 08:45
推荐购买: 1.存储三美(mu、sndk、skhy) 2.芯片(intc、nvda、cbrs) 3.新云(nbis、crwv) 4.光(lite、cohr、mrvl) 5.先进封装(amkr、glw) 6.电力(gev、be) 建议上面选择两只重仓,搭配下面任意一只,比例7:3或者6:4分配 7.大科技(goog、amzn、msft、meta) Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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Serenity 2026-08-17 08:16
Just some more demand imbalance visibility for $SNDK, $SKHY, $MU, Kioxia, and your NAND players. Phison CEO: "2027 capacity constraints will be even more severe than in 2026." "Upstream suppliers need up to 4 years from plant construction and equipment investment to actual production. With demand growing explosively and supply expansion limited, the NAND shortage is likely to last for years." Don't quite think I agree with the people claiming it's all over for memory, esp. NAND bottlenecks in 2026...
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美股仙人 2026-08-17 07:38
家人们,我是不是说的没错。在美股就要乐观,就要坚强,悲观真的赚不到钱的。我们站在人类生产力爆炸前夜,跌一个月,你却告诉我硬件到头了?其实这真的没有什么好争论的,时间会告诉你一切的。 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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美股仙人 2026-08-17 05:50
我发现有人被冒充我的杀猪盘骗了,我再重申下。我不会私信任何人,私信你们都是杀猪盘,无论头像是什么,名字叫什么,私信你就不是我本人。 Discord和X都是一样的,外网的环境非常差,几乎就是法外之地。各位一定要擦亮眼睛,谨防被骗。 私信你的都是杀猪盘,我没有Telegram和whatsapp 私信你的都是杀猪盘,我没有Telegram和whatsapp 私信你的都是杀猪盘,我没有Telegram和whatsapp Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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美股仙人 2026-08-17 05:08
热巴(mu)冲 1000 了,估计无数的空头要按耐不住了😅,忍不住要空了!来吧!决一死战!牛来应战! Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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Serenity 2026-08-17 02:52
I think we're seeing AI server MLCC demand cause an interesting effect... with tightening capacity for consumer/general-purpose MLCCs. If you get Vietnam flashbacks like I do to $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix -> Legacy DRAM: My thesis is we'll see the same thing here maybe late H2, early 2027 with consumer/broad MLCCs. From July 6th: "the crowding-out effect from AI-oriented high-end MLCC production has begun spilling over into both the automotive and consumer markets." July 28th: "AI Demand Pushes Japanese and Korean MLCC Suppliers to Record Monthly Shipments; Consumer-Grade Order Spillovers Continue to Surge" Aug 12: As [MLCC] capacity shifts from consumer grades to AI-oriented products... (Trendforce) Aug 12: China's electronics market channel checks found 22µF and 47µF MLCCs (used more broadly) out of stock. Then found and said certain manufacturers had stopped taking orders. (for reference: Walsin said high-volume smartphone/PC products such as... 22µF, so it's broader MLCCs) Obviously Samsung Electro-Mechanics/Murata are main beneficiaries of AI server MLCC ramp. But companies with large market share of overall MLCCs like Taiyo Yuden (6976, disclosure: I have positions) with less AI server share, would be a major beneficiary of this. Fun part is, we're only in H2 2026, so the next major bottleneck should be fun!
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Serenity 2026-08-17 01:39
"Severe InP Shortage Triggers Largest Price Hike Ever" - $AXTI. Suppliers have bluntly stated that "even if you have the money, you still may not be able to get the material" (lol). - Industry sources revealed that InP substrate prices began rising in Q4 last year and was the fourth consecutive substrate price hike. - The latest Q4 hike is expected to be >10%, - Meanwhile, prices for epitaxial wafers made from those substrates have already been raised two times, and the market is moving toward a 3rd consecutive increase in Q4. (I also wrote a thesis on $IQE, which benefits here too). Article states VPEC, Landmark, IET benefits (Taiwan centric reporting). I did predict this last year... The bottleneck is real, but I do have higher expectations for price hikes that comes next. Glad it's starting to play out.
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Serenity 2026-08-17 00:34
Stripe reportedly buys OpenRouter for $7 Billion. I think their orchestration is easy to replicate and switch from. And there's very little moat. But atm, OpenRouter has the userbase, valuable dataset, + momentum. What's your take... Yay or Nay for the payments firm? https://t.co/AqOlKlwCzc
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Serenity 2026-08-16 18:33
I think @elonmusk said it best: “Robots don’t all need to be humanoid. But a general-purpose robot intended to replace human labor should fit the world humans already built. Roger, roger.” Personally, I expect $TSLA Optimus form factor to converge to the right image. https://t.co/il7tND3n59
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美股仙人 2026-08-16 13:19
明天让整个纳斯达克感受一下什么叫牛来🐮 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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Serenity 2026-08-16 11:35
@aleabitoreddit I can’t understand why robots have to be humanoid as many applications don’t require them to be
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Serenity 2026-08-16 11:15
I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect. Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming. But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens? Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity. Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management" 1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%. _ Nvidia in 2026: Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme. Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!" Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027. I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.
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Serenity 2026-08-16 04:50
Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting: - $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day. LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030. - $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029. For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis - conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct. - Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers. Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt. - $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028 Just more nvidia news every day - $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September. Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now: - maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026... So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries. - $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"... Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks. Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes. - $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030 (not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting) - Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries) - Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3. - Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply. Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one. - some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo. Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this. TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.
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Serenity 2026-08-16 03:48
My weekend X feed is getting pretty sad. The main things I've seen were: - Harvard endowment going degen with $SPCX, and + $AMD, $NVDA disclosing billions - AI agent microcosm implications on RuneScape - Hormuz getting renamed to Straight of America - Jane Street getting wiped $15B by Citadel - ____ who's hedge fund is up 30% every year buys a .00005% position my favorite stock _____! - Bunch of noisy motivational quotes or bad takes on trading
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美股仙人 2026-08-16 03:33
为什么我又觉得下周要大涨了?感觉我每天都觉得第二天要涨,这是不是一种病?😂要不要治啊? Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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美股仙人 2026-08-15 07:17
真的知道自己买的是什么,有独立思考,不受波动影响,不做情绪的奴隶,基本都不会亏钱的😂 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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Serenity 2026-08-15 05:40
说我归零的传闻未免也太夸张了吧 哈哈 经历了7月份AI板块的崩盘后,我的YTD收益依然还有 +2,411.84% https://t.co/m49XcPRgC3
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美股仙人 2026-08-15 05:20
美光最新一季 13F 出来了。 增持机构 2967 家,减持 2184 家;新建仓 1253 家,清仓只有 266 家。 从机构数量看,明显还是买的人更多。所以哪怕是 1200 的美光,愿意买美光的机构也在变多,清仓减仓的还是少数,数据不会骗人,所以你在怕什么? 另外这批数据截止 6 月 30 日,回调还没开始,7 月那轮存储股大跌之后的操作将在 11 月 16 日公开,你将会看到海量的机构在这波下跌中疯狂买入😅 最后说一句,选择 7 月初开始回调我认为就是机构为了避开q2 数据提前公开🤭,机构很狗的,为了上车什么事都做的出来🤣 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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美股仙人 2026-08-15 04:25
闪迪这个月涨了 35%,美光这个月涨了 18%,大概率美逛之后会缩小这个差距,毕竟美光的投资者会议和财报都没发呢🥰闪迪涨越多,美光的想象力就越大😅 所以亲爱的你们听懂了吗?炒股其实不难,这种都是明牌了🫠 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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Serenity 2026-08-15 02:46
US Government urges $AAPL not to buy Chinese memory chips. $MU, $SKHY, and Samsung are happy to hear this... Hilariously enough, CXMT/YMTC is price hiking too, so it's not exactly "cheap Chinese memory that floods the market". Apple once upon a time actually had extreme supplier leverage before the AI boom.
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美股仙人 2026-08-14 17:12
恭喜 nbis 的股东,nbis 真的涨得太猛了,马上都要新高了!虽然不知道他这么涨的原因是什么,但是只要是硬件涨我就开心,甲方爸爸涨的越好,说明内存需求越大😛快涨吧,涨得越多越好。 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/xWds6ijBR3
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美股仙人 2026-08-14 15:50
又是老利空,掀不起风浪的,我们手里有王牌,牌的名字叫川普! 我来推测一下川普下一步就是撤军,宣布胜利,美股大涨😅至于是真赢还是假赢,不重要的,反正川普说赢了就可以了。 海峡吗就让伊朗接管好了,伊朗也要做生意的,不会乱来的😅 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/EngB4yGu3h
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美股仙人 2026-08-14 14:17
一堆人说,涨一周就高兴成这样,下一周跌了怎么办😅😅 问这问题的人,心态上就已经输了,在我这里跌完全不是问题,我有足够的勇气面对下跌,整个七月我都没恐慌过,下跌永远是上涨的一部分,我的经典名言:躲下跌就是躲上涨😎 错过存储的孩子大部分都是因为躲下跌产生的🤣🤣所以,别再问下周跌怎么办了,因为根本没有怎么办,我看美光 3000😍😍 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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美股仙人 2026-08-14 13:59
下周回调我熬鸡汤给你喝,喝吐你,保证你拿的牢牢的,拿到美光 3000,就问你还要不要退费。最后补一句,别拿下跌说事,没有股票只涨不跌的,下跌了怎么面对才是问题核心。 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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美股仙人 2026-08-14 13:41
马斯克喊你买存储了,如果存储不是周期,至少三倍涨幅 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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美股仙人 2026-08-14 13:20
熬出头了!熬出头了!终于熬出头了!!!我希望那些骂我傻逼,骂我不懂的,说我是骗子害人的,你们不用道歉🙇‍♂️,订阅我一下,我可以带你们赚钱,谢谢大家🥰🥰 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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Serenity 2026-08-14 11:29
The $SHKY, Samsung, $SNDK, $MU memory bottleneck never changed anon https://t.co/6Xyih3pM9D
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美股仙人 2026-08-14 10:45
又回到最初的高点 呆呆地站在镜子前 笨拙系上白色口罩的结 将头发梳成鸟巢模样 穿上一身黑色 T恤 等会儿见你一定喊出吨为嗯~ 那些年错过的美光 那些年错过的闪迪 好想拥抱你 拥抱错过的勇气 曾经想征服全世界 到最后回首才发现 这世界滴滴点点全部都是存为王~ Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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Serenity 2026-08-14 08:30
Donald Trump signs a proclamation to strengthen US supply chains for drones. Benefiting U.S. drone component suppliers like $UMAC to UAS manufacturers like $ONDS + $RCAT. TLDR, 100% tariffs on: - UAS docking stations + certain critical components - certain parts for >25 kg drones - Drones >25 kg 25% tariffs on: - broader components UAS = Unmanned Aircraft System (don't have any positions in any above)
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美股仙人 2026-08-14 08:16
美光今天要挑战 1000 了,可很多人还在期待美光回到 800,回到 700,跌到 600🫠涨涨很快的,也就回调了一个多月,怎么就变成了大家都不相信了呢🤔,最悲观的时候社区只有 20%的人相信存储能再创新高🤣希望这一次回调能让大家明白,好公司就是好公司,基本面永远是天。其他都是假的。 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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Serenity 2026-08-14 04:06
Feels like glass substrate timelines got pushed back at least another quarter. - "Samsung Electro-Mechanics Delays Semiconductor Glass Substrate Investment" due to a bottleneck in customer reliability evaluations of prototypes. At its recent second-quarter earnings presentation, less than a month later, the company revised the start of operations to 2028. - "SKC Reportedly Pushes Glass Substrate Mass Production to 2027, Targets Final Validation by Year-end" (Trendforce), earlier last month. TLDR: - SKC Absolics H2 2026 -> H1 2027 - Samsung H2 2027 -> H1 2028 Not everything is always good news with timeline shifts, but glass core substrate shifts do feel imminent. Volume ramp for some players eg. $LPK / Philoptics (161580) / E&R (8027) likely track these mass production timelines.
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美股仙人 2026-08-13 18:24
好多人问我热巴(mu)的目标价?说实话,我没有目标价,但是如果一定要我说一个数字,那我就勉为其难说个 3000 吧🫠 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/MxkZmrNzqL
❤ 2 🔁 0 💬 5 source ↗
美股仙人 2026-08-13 18:08
我发现我炒股风格好像跟别人是不大一样,我发现大部分似乎不喜欢亏钱,一天亏钱都不愿意,然后喜欢极致操作,追求收益最大化🫠 但我不知为什么,我很无感追求这些,亏钱我也不觉得难受,我感觉炒股亏钱是很正常的一件事,谁炒股每天都是赚的啊?亏就亏呗,不就是个数字么,我的认知里面亏钱就跟刮风下雨一样,应该没有人会觉得下雨是世界末日吧🫠🫠 可能就是这种心态下,我才能在行情不好的时候写出这么多热血鸡汤,这些其实也不能算是鸡汤,都是我平时的思考,我的感悟,我不觉得天会塌,我也不觉得亏损是坏事,人还是要积极乐观一点,毕竟看多科技就是做多地球,我们没有必要对这个世界悲观。 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
❤ 10 🔁 0 💬 6 source ↗
美股仙人 2026-08-13 17:08
我理解不了,怎么 3.5pro 不端出来,拼命刷 flash 啊,看了谷歌是真的战略放弃 3.5pro,准备直接上 4.0 翻身了 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/s5DI3NTeBI
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美股仙人 2026-08-13 16:56
真的买啥都不如买存储,就算现在存储涨了点,但是在我眼里还是白菜价,存储好到什么地步,就是你在整个市场里都找不到可以有资格和他比较的标的,真的,你要是真的横向比一下,其他行业连給存储擦皮鞋都不配。差的不是一点半点。 基本面强劲,预期确定性强,现金流强,护城河深,绝对卖方市场。如果一个标的,同时满足以上三点,就已经可以无脑买了,如果能满足四点,就是天选之子。储存则同时满足这五点,真真正正的五边形战士,此时此刻独一份。 我这么和你说吧,我炒股十年了,这种五边形战士我只碰到过 2 个,20 年的特斯拉,24 年英伟达。而现在的存储我认为比这两家情况还要好一个级别,这种机会可遇不可求的。你还选什么股,还研究什么公司,真的无脑买就行了。 7 月份的下跌真的是离谱到家了,就是机构没买够,还一批人给机构抬轿子,愚蠢至极🫠 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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美股仙人 2026-08-13 15:58
前段时间有不少人嫌弃海力士,说涨不过美光,韩国棒子不行,结果我刚刚看一眼,美光这个月 16%,海力士 15%,这不是一样么…所以我一直说,别太着急,今天你涨,明天我涨,无所谓的,只要大家都是一条船上的,就不分你我,拿着就行了 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
❤ 32 🔁 0 💬 20 source ↗
美股仙人 2026-08-13 15:33
退不了一点,利好来了我就忍不住想发,我已经肌肉记忆了 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/JCYFycwRM1
❤ 39 🔁 0 💬 10 source ↗
美股仙人 2026-08-13 14:55
我是不是可以退休了,不需要再发存储鸡汤了吧😭接下去就慢慢享受上涨,我们顶峰相见,各位再见👋 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
❤ 121 🔁 0 💬 23 source ↗
美股仙人 2026-08-13 14:17
rklb 今天确定是增发吗?我还第一次看到增发大涨的,活久见 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
❤ 21 🔁 0 💬 14 source ↗
美股仙人 2026-08-13 14:02
deepseek api 价格涨幅接近五倍😅中国平替变成,中国最贵😅 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
❤ 20 🔁 0 💬 11 source ↗
美股仙人 2026-08-13 13:53
这就是美股,无脑做多,多看少动,长期持有,就问你怎么输 Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/G7dUuESBXF
❤ 39 🔁 0 💬 12 source ↗
Serenity 2026-08-13 11:43
In IPO news… Vantage Data Centers is exploring going public at an enormous $100B valuation. If you’re not familiar, $ORCL is their anchor tenant for Stargate (OpenAI end user), and Vantage develops/operates hyperscaler DCs. Anthropic IPO is also expected, with investors expecting $2T valuation, eclipsing $SPCX per FT. Yeah… idk about Anthropic valuations. Jim Cramer defending that valuation is never a good sign. On a side note, Opus 5 is probably the worst consumer LLM I’ve used to date, it’s like a 5 IQ LLM operating off terrible data retrieval. With a Fable-like God complex on top. Enterprise is probably having a better time though. Unitree IPO is also expected this month and priced it at a $9B valuation. Which is a positive tailwind for Unitree for the humanoid sectors. Not really an AI name but SHEIN is going public as soon as the 19th this month. Go ask any girl you know and they’re probably familiar with this platform.
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Serenity 2026-08-13 10:17
Okay here's my take on $POET, since apparently people are celebrating on the subreddit that I took small positions. - I have 0 idea. ZERO. How they convinced shareholders to allow them dilute SO MUCH to the point: They have an absurd ~$830m cash on hand now. And my guess is that they're close to done, since I would be in disbelief if they needed more. So now... they have ~$830m to grow their business like M&A, and EV actually dropped really low recently (eg. $1.25B MC vs. $830m cash on hand), that I thought it was compelling to take a risk. - Annualized production capacity target is 12M optical engines/year for 2027, which is pretty absurd ramp. Need to do more research into ASP for Poet's products, but maybe $125-$200? So at ~$150 ASP, $1.8B revenue ceiling. But they're like inverse AAOI right now: no visible demand to fill all that capacity. Aside from Lumilens, which is now a highly valued hyperscaler supplier (probably Amazon or Microsoft), with billions in customer agreements. The interesting thing is if Poet signed prepayment EML agreements with players like Mitsubishi, or CW agreements with Sivers behind the scenes with that balance sheet. And given the current bottleneck, players might use Poet as a workaround for supply procurement. But basically, you have a super cash-rich company with a ton of capacity coming online. And they're not really disappearing anytime soon with their financials. I don't quite think it's as technically defensible compared to upstream laser chokepoints with something like $SIVE around the same valuation in terms of technical moat for CW lasers vs. OE packaging side. As you've seen recently with Celestial and Poet. But maybe... there's a chance some hyperscaler or downstream company announces a volume agreement sometime in the future. and $POET takes off. And they do have the supply chain setup for ramp with that. That's the risk I ended up taking, but it's not exactly a clear as day long for me like $AAOI.
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Serenity 2026-08-13 09:50
@aleabitoreddit 女神,poet的股价价值兑现是在确定新设备进厂后才开始的吗
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Serenity 2026-08-13 09:46
Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both) So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates: Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it. Since then: - $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive) - $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers. - Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap" - IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract. The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly). There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important. But basically: FY2025 revenue: £97.3m FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of bank debt/distressed liquidation state, and remains a critical chokepoint in Western optical supply chains. Now... with new agreements with your leading photonics companies for revenue growth, and players like Macom serving as a soft backstop. After a thesis gets validated, typically I just sit back and enjoy growth of a business.
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美股仙人 2026-08-13 09:34
这就对喽,hbm5 快来锅里吧,客制化 hbm,非标准化产品,存储的周期属性真的要彻底消失了😇 崔泰源表示,存储行业正迎来发展转折点:面向客户定制化HBM的下一代技术迭代落地。 如今定制化HBM需要和AI处理器协同设计研发,伴随新一代HBM5技术落地,这一行业趋势还在持续提速。 “英伟达想要专属定制芯片,谷歌也需要量身打造的HBM产品,存储芯片早已不再是标准化大宗商品。”崔泰源称,“这从根本上改变了存储芯片的行业属性与市场定位。” Buy the dip,长期持有,永远缺存储,Discord在个人资料。
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Serenity 2026-08-13 08:58
@aleabitoreddit Any update on IQE? They have released a lot of good news recently would be good to hear your thoughts.
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Serenity 2026-08-13 07:44
$SIVE announces a $3.4M development program with SemiNex! For CPO, DFB laser arrays, and optical amplifiers. Early production is targeted H2 2027 (in line with early scale up CPO timelines) Seemed weird to me at first given product overlap, since SemiNex is a much smaller Series B company... But then I got reminded of a less explicit version of $SPCX + Cursor relationship (derisking by working together first). There's probably something interesting Sivers found in this company.
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