rklb 盘后财报，我不知道涨跌，财报的涨跌再我这里是五五开。但是无论涨跌我都不会卖出，我只关注一件事情，那就是中子号什么时候发射，希望皮特今天喊一句计划未变，年底发射！这就够了，哈哈哈 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

Be Barrons: - Wants to write about optical supply supply chains like $AAOI - Hiring DPT: who needs engineers to write about this something this simple? Let’s find underpaid political philosophy backgrounds. - proceeds to find a new hire from nonprofit communication consulting - first day on job: gets paid to model revenue ramp/margins projections, CW laser bottlenecks, internal capacity - New hire: “I don’t understand this sht”, “looks like a memestock” Barrons: “Memestock? looks like our next article, I don’t understand either”.

唱了两天的卖存买光，结果周一光开盘崩了。交易真的没有必要太频繁，一定要耐得住寂寞，看好的东西不能因为别人说什么就自动动摇了，答案都在时间里。 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

发现好多人在追光，不停问还能不能买，FOMO情绪严重。然后存储无人问津，在角落当一个小可怜。 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

Now that markets are hosting a laser party again from $SIVE, OE Solutions, $LITE, Coherent, to $AAOI. There’s a pretty interesting study: Both from Fidelity and a UC Berkeley research paper, that the best investors are the ones who either… - Anecdotally forgot about their account (Fidelity) - Didn’t actively trade/overtrade (18.5% return from infrequent traders vs. 11.4%). Not any advice, but some of these anecdotes might be helpful to retail to read in general… Since I witnessed a lot capitulation off memory, photonics, or thematic volatility, just for retail not have positions on a sharp recovery. Having conviction also usually people in that “not overtrading” camp, since it helps to not overtrade in drops or see opportunities to cost average.

这周三有 cpi，美联储现在不怎么看非农，但是 cpi 一定会看的，又要渡劫了哦😮 不过么我肯定是看 cpi 的，理由还是川普，这么说吧，今年下半年的所有数据都不会差的，担心通胀的人其实都是不了解美国政治，不了解川普🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.

为什么存和光要二选一？好奇怪🤔 这又不是替代关系，你机柜里难道要光不要存了吗？或者光好起来了，存储难道还能不行？存是周期，光就不是周期了吗？ 都是一家人，怎么突然就吵起来了🤣看多光看空存，光这结论就是矛盾的，不是吗？真要比起来，光的盈利 和技术门槛都是碾压光的，何况，光到目前为止也涨了好多了倍了。🤣 我其实不介意光涨起来，涨越多越好，越高越好，都是一个柜子里的东西，你涨飞了，我存还能落下？🤣🤣🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

All right chat, it’s that time of the month again. What’s your #1 highest conviction stock and why? I actually learn a lot from reading these, so share some cool ideas.

这个周末存储看空的声音炸了，这次真的是连鬼故事都省了，纯人为制造情绪了。jukan 和花旗都发表了看空存储的言论，让周末存储情绪变得又紧张起来🤦 我发现目前看空存储的人普遍都认为存储已经涨了很多了，所以想要继续涨就很难了，这几乎是每一个空头都会强调的逻辑。然而我认为这个逻辑根本站不住脚😅 因为我实在说了太多基本面相关的内容，不想再重复了，简单说存储的估值此时此刻是没有溢价的，是被低估的，一年营收等于整个公司市值，放眼整个纳斯达克 你就找不到第二家🤦，再低估的前提下你说涨不动了，这本身就是不合理。 对存储依旧有信心，坚持看好 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

完全同意，观点一致

I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections. Given recent industry earnings: > $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck). > $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines) > US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink) > AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers. The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too. Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.

Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $NBIS: First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through: > $GOOGL: reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $AMZN: reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $META: reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings. Now, time to look at Nebius: -> $NBIS: Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power. -> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride -> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter. Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge? -> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $LULU to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good. Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $LULU

1.去杠杆已进入尾声，Reuters最新报道甚至出现海外大资金重新买入韩国半导体的迹象。现阶段再提去杠杆意义不大。 2.Rubin Ultra去掉一半HBM，利用光互联集群内存本质上是妥协方案，我一直觉得是老黄的阳谋，更多集群意味着更多机柜和芯片。 3.存储价格未来两个季度到顶是共识，这最离谱。我自己账号就转发了无数机构对存储涨价的乐观预期，不知道Jukan的共识怎么得出的。我觉得共识一定到不了，这应是华尔街最大的争议，大部分机构还是偏乐观。 Jukan是资深供应链分析师，长久以来是存储的死多头，在此位置放弃存储头寸，理由非常牵强，至少说服不了我，略感失望。虽补充长线看多，但更像叠甲。他有点影响力，虽不认可，但我认为是噪音，短期会影响华尔街判断。 对存储，打铁还需自身硬，把价格涨上去，打烂质疑者的脸，是最好回应，一切交给未来验证 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储。Discord在个人资料。

Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung. As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again. The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there. For photonics: > We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop. > We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls. Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations. Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35... But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections) For Memory: I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago. Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world. There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme. But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural. And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year. People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness). I can't tell others what to to do: But $AAOI at $140 and $AAOI at $75 are the same company. Samsung at a $1.5T MC and Samsung at a $980B MC are the same company. Just valuations and narratives (often noise) change, and markets rotate from sector to sector.

伊朗刚刚公开向美国开出了条件，虽然这份条件堪称丧权辱国，川普答应了就是美国李鸿章🤦不过，肯开条件说明伊朗还是有想法的，改变了市场认为伊朗油盐不进的看法，虽然川普答应可能性为零，伊朗开这个条件也不会期待川普会答应，但是给下一步谈判创造了条件。 伊朗条件如下： -美国解除对伊朗的海军封锁和制裁 -美国军队从伊朗境内/周边撤军 -美国支付战争赔偿并释放冻结的伊朗资产 -美国及其盟友停止对伊朗在该地区盟友的攻击 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

@aleabitoreddit Serenity, are you still bullish on memory and storage stocks?

JUST IN: Iran says it will reopen Strait of Hormuz if US "accepts" its conditions

伯克希尔连续 14 个季度卖出终结，Q2净买入近200亿美元股票;上半年累计买入394亿、卖出278亿。 好了，八月这下真的要好起来了，巴菲特在华尔街就是圣经一般的存在，讲了好多年的巴菲特囤现金的鬼故事终于结束了，华尔街周一估计要开晨会学习起来了🤦🤦 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

I've mapped the entire Wall Street bear playbook on AI names: Have your favorite institution/media insert one of these name down below: 1. < ______ [GPUs, Transcivers, MLCC, Memory...] are a commodity set to crash> 2. < ______ [YMTC, CXMT, Dongshan...] from China will flood the market > 3. < ______ [Micron, Nvidia, ...] from unverifiable channel checks is facing issues > 4. < ______ [Kospi, Sivers, ...] is a bubble like the ____ [2007, 2021] crash> 5. <____ [1,2,3, ...] unexpected rate hikes this year> 6. < _____ [Google, Nvidia, Deepseek ...] optimization removes the need of this!> in a new headline, and it's ready to go!

讲道理，热巴（mu）虽然疲软，但是跌不下去也是事实，一周内居然三次反弹，我看好多人还看空，在这个位置空真的能赚钱吗？至少这一周我看空军够呛🤦 收手吧，阿祖，真的，存储爆发都是时间问题，你们不是喜欢技术分析么，这怎么看都是底部缩量旗形整理，均线缠绕，就差最后一哆嗦了🤦 推荐迎娶热巴（mu）四星半，少半颗星是給空军最后的体面 。 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

There we go, White House finally invests in more breath in critical minerals/materials. Amazing policy move, as a TLDR: - $WWR receives $25M (graphite) - $SRL (ASX) receives $400M (Scandium) - $FEAM receives $8M (Boron) - $HREE receives $4.8M (magnet rare earths) out of the public companies. With more private investments from $150 million into Niron Magnetics or $85 million into Standard Bauxite. It's literally spare change to the US gov, for ENORMOUS amount of downstream applications. More should be done with funding amounts to accelerate development and derisk supply chains (don't own any of the above, just support the policy move), but great announcement.

我刚又研究了一下关于存储是否是周期股的研究，结论是华尔街不相信那就只能靠时间去证明。当年英伟达用了5年去证明自己不是周期股（17-22年），不过存储比当年的英伟达基本面要更强，但是要让华尔街相信不是周期股也得27年底才能彻底有结论。 我不是说需要到27年底才会涨，这期间存储的基本面继续保持住，股价一定也会涨，但是要证明周期这件事，只能让时间慢慢证明，但是回报也会非常惊人，该多少估值都会正常给的。 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

$SPCX 解禁完之后的大火箭就是有力气，希望看到我之前发的帖子的人， 有吃到这波涨幅。 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

存储目前大A地虫，又被打回五日线以下，走弱大盘，继续调整。消息面上没有利空，只有利好。说实话，连空头都被干懵了，一会绝望一会又燃气希望，都快干成傻子了。 其实没啥的，调整就让他调整，直播的时候我说过（看下图），顶永远是尖的，底永远是圆的，一年半的疯狂，一次彻底的回调，不得来一个特别漂亮的圆弧底吗？所以耐心持有，静待花开。 光已经快前高了，存储还能回不去？？？反正我是不信的 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

海峡再打开，油价来个下跌，别说加息了，今年说不定还得降息，那美股真他妈要突破天际了。 这不是痴人说梦，这是完全有可能发生的事情，跌一个月，涨五个月，这不就是每年的美股日常么？也没啥好奇怪的。 所以我们7月到底在恐慌什么？？ Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

Some more TLDR takeaways from $AAOI ER: - They also flagged DSP and TIA bottlenecks, which is a positive industry read through for names like $MXL, then $SMTC and $MTSI. - For revenue growth, they're expecting more than $500 million revenue Q4, which is absurd growth. For reference: Q2: $191.9M Q3: ~$255M-$290M Q4: $500M+ By mid-2027: ~$1.41B quarterly revenue run-rate Always impressed by the revenue ramp from some of these optical players.

9月不加息的概率超过50%了，鬼故事难道又要破灭一个了？之前我说过，在美股，乐观总不会有错，悲观只会让你亏钱。 我有种预感，后面要涨的大家怀疑人生了。 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/g54dqokikS

一个非农倒跌，一个失业率下降，不仅加息概率下降，连经济衰退的剧本都拿不出来了。。。完美中的完美。。。 还是得信川普，这数据完美到假的一样，我说我们改数据别改的太夸张，改的这么明显真的合适吗？？😂😂 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

我给大家翻译翻译：九月不加息🤦 拿好了！绑好安全带！跟着川普不会错！ Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/aRr3uY640i

I usually make fun of sellside, but Rosenblatt has pretty goated channel checks on optical names, and their reports are one of the few I like talking about. $AAOI, $LITE, $SIVE, and the laser party has started to recover around the est. timing windows. eg. last month: "Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August". They might have missed that they believed $AMD would be $AAOI's first CPO customer... since AAOI said they would be missing from first-gen CPO (maybe future gen?) But lot of their talking points about China CPO laser positioning (eg. 2-3 years behind) got corroborated word-for-word from AAOI earnings today.

Unitree, China's humanoid leader, is set to IPO this month at a $9B valuation! (~$6.2B originally per March filing). Derivative markets are pricing open at an implied $36.04B MC, roughly ~4X listing price. $CCXI / Agility Robotics, the first US publicly listed pure play humanoid leader, is also going public later in Q4, at a ~$2.5B pre-money valuation. It will be interesting to see how markets price in America vs. Chinese Humanoid leaders.

下次选股还是选美国公司吧，台积电，ASML最好也别买，不是说不好，是很吃亏，明明都是好公司，但是估值就是打折的。换一个身份可以再多涨一倍。不知道我这么说你们能明白吗？ Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

Earlier today, optical interconnect company Lumilens "emerges from stealth" at a $5.5B valuation, after raising $700m. Just as a recap from $POET / $SIVE Linkedin OSINT mapping I shared earlier, Lumilens was supplying a top 3 hyperscaler customer. So we got confirmation of that a month later, along with the material figure that Lumilens has a "multi-billion-dollar customer agreement". And just for reference, $POET has existing contracts with Lumilens ($50m purchase order, up to $500m) + contracts with $SIVE (depending on product lines). I actually took tiny positions in POET again after reading this news, since it finally gives them visibility into extremely well funded hyperscaler suppliers (on top of Poet's really large balance sheet). But TLDR: > Lumilens around similar (or even higher) valuations as Lightmatter/Ayar, bigger than markets thought with hyperscaler customers. > nice read through upstream on $POET (derisking) / $SIVE. > Great for optical valuations in general, seeing a company go to $5.5B in 2 years.

Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments. "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" So first-gen CPO laser deployments, might even be narrowed down further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. And independent CPO CW laser capacity became more valuable if $AAOI had to turn away more customers... Also remember Trendforce was talking about $AMD singing CW LTAs? $COHR / $LITE have capacity signed with $NVDA ... I thought it would be $AAOI, but they might be out of the equation. $MTSI also doesn't look meaningful with early CPO participation (eg. no mention in ER aside from NPO, and removal from Ayar website). So I wonder who players like $AMD is going to go with for Helios (eg. Sivers + Ayar more likely candidate now)? Btw, this is not bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for optical transceiver business. Just more bullish on the existing few qualified CPO laser names that have capacity. 2. Demand imbalance and bottleneck for InP lasers / optical transceivers. AOI's CEO stated kinda supported that when they said: "The customer demand is 20%-40% higher" than expanded built out capacity. "We are getting this kind of demand from several big customers almost every week. Lasers are the biggest bottleneck right now for the transceiver business" 3. China being years away from having CPO DWDM specification lasers. I covered this earlier when looking at CPO competition from channel checks. But AAOI confirming that China is "easily at least two, three years or even longer from having CPO lasers is incredible tread through on defensibility Western laser positioning in the CPO laser chokepoint. TLDR: - High demand imbalance for CW lasers and optical transceivers. - $AAOI not in first-gen CPO due to capacity constraints (not exactly bearish AAOI because they have too much demand for their optical transciver business, but even better news for the few independent players with capacity coming online like $SIVE) - China years behind in CPO lasers.

不容易，终于看到饥饿河马出库了，看着是要吊装竖起来的节奏，还不错的样子，心里面总算放心一点了。 小火箭的股价现在是多少完全不重要，真要确认发射，当天就给你来个 100%涨幅，中子号是天😁看看财报皮特怎么说吧，别延期别延期🙏🙏 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/rB2fPzYppU

这次本能的避开了海力士，我也说不上为什么没选海力士，只能说当年中概吃的亏太多了🤣海力士现在给我很强的中概股既视感，一种深深无力感。 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

这不就是我每天不厌其烦表达的吗？存储已经不是普通的产品了，hbm 已经成为架构的核心部件，和 cpu 和 gpu 同属一个层级，现在没有人说 intc 和 nvda 是周期股，以后存储也是一样，如果真的有望打破周期论，至少给到大科技 的 pe，那估计少说还能涨三倍🤦 时间会证明一切的。 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

$MTSI earnings transcript: "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" Emphasis on "Urgency", CW "DFB lasers", "coming to us". CW DFB names, such as like $SIVE and $LITE should be happy to hear about this laser bottleneck getting validated.

Just some TLDR notes on $AAOI earnings: - Expects full qualification of 1.6T products by their hyperscaler customer within next couple of weeks (helpful revenue ramp #2, timelines) - Continues to believe that AOI will have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the US (reiterating ambitions during a time when their competitors might get banned) - Expects facilities toward InP capacity to come online in early 2027 (timeline FYI in terms of further ramp) - Total capacity is approaching 200,000/u per month, EOY 650,000/u per month of 800g/1.6t. EOY 2027, 930,000/u (this is the ramp i want to see) - "increase our manufacturing capacity for our external light source or ELSFP. That's for co-packaged optics or CPO". we anticipate ramping production later this year and into 2027, ultimately culminating in about 400,000 pieces per month in 2028 (need some time to model this into revenue) - "As we have mentioned before, we've been manufacturing lasers internally for many years. This has allowed us to avoid some of the shortages that have affected others in the industry" (vertical integration bull case during CW/EML laser shortages) - We believe that in the future, CPO will continue to drive increased demand for high-power lasers (thesis validation on CPO sector) - "to our long-term objective of returning non-GAAP gross margins to around 40%" - "We ended the second quarter with $508.8 million in total cash equivalents" I need to double check if the ATM finished or not - "our ability to deliver revenue in general, and specifically when it comes to 800G products, is limited by our production capacity right now" "If we could produce more, we could ship more right now" Demand > Supply validation. - "Most of the increased capacity will be in U.S. Even so, let me say that, like I keep emphasizing, that is not good enough for the customer demand. The customer demand is 20%-40% higher." Unholy photonics demand validation across the whole sector, read through for $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL, and others is amazing. - "Not in the next two, three years, especially the demand is so big. Okay? Even combined AI, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO all together, it's still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next few years" More optical sector demand validation. - CPO Timelines: "If you're talking about really high volume manufacturer [for CPO market], I would say more like the late Q3 next year" and "We have been working very close with at least five customer" If you care about current earnings (which I'm not really looking at closely) Revenue: $191M vs. $190m EPS: $.06 vs. $.02 TLDR: Extraordinary demand across the laser + optical sector read through. Kinda supporting Lumentum CEO statement that laser shortage is worse than memory shortages. 2027 capacity ramp on track. To map inflection period with timelines, would be around early next year, as stated in their previous earnings call. AAOI has the customers now. Limitation is making enough lasers and transceivers.

9🈷️加息的声音又来了🤦，还有两个月呢，出了数据再说吧，没必要杞人忧天。我还是那个意思，川普都不慌你慌啥，真加息了川普后面两年就跟架空没区别了，一个政策都推进不下去，全被民主党搅黄🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

盘前：今天热巴（mu）跌三个点算赢 开盘：今天热巴能转灯就行 现在：今天热巴能不能暴涨啊！！！🤦🤦🤦 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

空头这波是彻底玩完了，不要做空不要做空不要做空，说了无数遍了 其实都是明牌，基本面是天，华尔街会骗，但不是瞎🫠🫠 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

人类又相信太空了😂😂星辰大海又回来了🤦 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/pStNDgYvk5

今天的美光真有力气。。。🙃🙃 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/CR9aV71Piv

I remain convinced nobody knows how to pronounce or talk about $AAOI in real life. It’s one letter too long to say $TSM or $AMD. And nobody ever says to a friend“Wow, I like applied optoelectronics!”

中国平替不存在了，以后是中国优选了😂😂 美国那几家大模型大舒一口气🤣🤣，超级大利好 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/dHHcpHbyuI

这就是我说的，不要低估 ai 的发展速度，需求不是几倍，是万倍，人类的大脑是有局限的，理解不了这些事情，但是如果我们站在今天回看过去两年，你会发现事情已经发生了根本改变。然而这还只是刚刚开始😂 我现在思考问题，如果涉及到未来，都会把得出的结论 x100，我不想被自己可怜的认知束缚住，我不想错过任何机会。 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

随着一份一份存储亮眼的财报发布，却没有带动股价，如果有人觉得存储的股价回不去，还要继续跌破前低，那就只会发生一件事，pe 越来越低，甚至跌到 1😂，我不知道这件事这在历史上有没有发生过，整个地球最赚钱的行业，却给了最低的估值。这真的对吗？华尔街在干嘛呢？我只能理解华尔街跟钱有仇，不想赚钱😂 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

明年 hbm 价格会再翻倍🤦还是供需决定一切。扩产在 27 年不会落地，28 年也够呛，需求却可能是今年的两倍 三倍，为什么毛利不能继续提升？哪怕增速不再提升，目前的状态估值也是被低估的，市场还是在定价存储是周期。但是周期这件事也许本身就是错的，供需关系和客户结构已经发生了根本变化，这个周期可能会拉长至五年以上，这么低的 PE 保持五年以上，市场一定会纠错的 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。