@RealNickMugalli Micron has been reasonable regarding future memory prices, while others have been extortionate, which is something today’s customers won’t forget … Micron is making is the smart move for long-term customer loyalty.

One step closer to Nasdaq: the SEC has declared effective our Form S-4 for the proposed business combination with Churchill Capital Corp XI (Nasdaq: CCXI). Expected ticker: AGLT Read the announcement: https://t.co/0OtlydSK8k

过去的存储主要是标准化产品，扩产、过剩、降价，周而复始。但2028年的存储，还会是你理解的那个存储吗？🤔 HBM3E、HBM4、HBM4E，一代接着一代。更重要的是，英伟达已经明确把 Custom HBM（定制化高带宽内存） 写进了2028年Feynman的技术路线图，美光也已经开始与英伟达联合开发定制HBM4E。 这意味着什么？ 未来的高端存储，很可能越来越像CPU、GPU一样，成为高度定制化的核心芯片，而不再只是可以随意替换的标准化商品。 甚至可能直接参与GPU的架构设计，与计算芯片深度融合。客户绑定、技术壁垒、研发周期、产品附加值，都可能发生根本性的变化。 过去买电脑看CPU，玩游戏看GPU，未来AI可能很大程度上要看存储！😅 因为GPU算力再强，如果存储容量不够、带宽跟不上、数据搬运效率太低，算力再强又有什么用？未来AI的性能、推理效率和成本，很可能越来越取决于存储系统。 如果未来的存储已经成为AI算力架构不可分割的一部分，那你还准备完全按照过去几十年的传统DRAM周期来给它估值吗？ 🤔 现在才2026年，2028年的新一代产品都还没有真正上市，就已经有一群人开始笃定那时候一定会产能过剩、价格暴跌了。🤣 你们担心的究竟是2028年的存储周期，还是脑子里那个永远停留在过去的存储行业？ 😅 我觉得现在很多人已经不是在预测周期，而是在拿过去的经验吓唬自己。🤦 我都不知道市场在害怕什么🤔我看到是无限大的上涨空间，巨大被低估的价值，时间会证明一切的。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

让你失望了，930 的美光收益依然断档第一🫠，当然如果涨回去，我不敢想今年能赚多少🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/2lILHVZxc3

你才是在原地分析未来，认为资本支出无法继续扩大，但是需求就是不断在增加，不断增加的需求又会生产出新的应用，新的应用又会产生新的需求，不断循环。人们无法预测没有见过的事物，三年前没有人能预料到 ai，两年前没有人预料到 ai 的爆发如此之快，一年前没有人会预料到内存会缺到这个地步。我可以非常肯定的说，现在人类对 28 年的预测都是井底之娃的行为。 生产力会爆发，烧出去的钱会创造出更大的财富，资本开支不是问题，问题在于不敢资本开支🫠，马上就要科技股财报了，你们会听到各大 ceo 们是如何看待未来的。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

@hanking66 你还是别分析了，逼逼叨逼逼叨，今天就930了。一直拿着貌似没赚钱吧。

终于来了，等的花都谢了

Gemini 4 Argon is here. It’s available globally today for developers and enterprises in the paid tier of the Gemini API and the Gemini platform, for Ultra subscribers in Google Antigravity, and Ultra and Pro subscribers in the Gemini app and Search. Hope you all enjoy it! https://t.co/2jyAgqoylU

@hanking66 静态分析便不便宜没有意义啊，现在的盈利建立在capex无序扩张和产能稀缺背景的高毛利基础之上的，卖内存卖显卡堪比卖白粉，一旦capex拐头，几个大厂烧不下去了，毛利率稳不住了盈利就是顶了。 capex不可能年年无限增长吧，快赶上瑞士gdp都

美光1050+的时候，评论区根本没人提周期🤣，跌到900了评论区开始疯狂输出存储是周期股。🤣 所以我的理解，存储是否是周期，按股价+-10%为标准，涨了就不是周期，反之依然🤣🤣 这条帖子要长期置顶，以后肯定有用。😅😅 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

现实： 没有任何证据证明 AI 硬件需求放缓！ 市场： 不！2028 年一定会放缓！😅 现实： 没有任何证据证明金主爸爸资本开支在减少！ 市场： 不！他们迟早会没钱烧的！😅 现实： 没有证据证明AI 应用需求在减弱，市场规模在缩小。 市场： 不！AI 泡沫马上就要破了！🤣 反正我看不到任何证据，看到的全是鬼故事。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

@hanking66 要深刻理解周期股！

股价 v 了，新 ceo 的新产品，好像受到市场认可了😅老外可能对这种产品有新鲜感，中国人对智能家居早就疲掉了😂 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

风水轮流转，板块轮动，美股永恒主题，所以我选择长期持有，等风来。追涨杀跌永远是两头挨打，吃力不讨好👌 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

微软上次财报到现在，前半段硬件涨很好，有人问我微软为何那么弱？我说财报后大涨横盘不回调已经很强了。 还是那个问题，持股没有耐心，看到别的板块涨，自己手里的不动就忍不住。现在硬件回调，手里拿硬件的可能又觉得软件香饽饽了。 软件弱了一年多，硬件才回调几周，几个月，很多标的仍然在高位，这点耐心总得有吧。 过去一个月智能体的落地，我认为微软基本面在越来越好。

我举个例子，如果，我说如果，之后又涨回来了，我都不说新高。那存储还周期吗？半导体还能继续持有吗？之前的下跌还重要吗？😅 只需回答这三个问题即可，谢谢谢各位老师🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

存以前是周期啊，以前又没 ai，以前存服务于消费电子，hbm 都是 ai 出来以后才有的需求。你还拿过去套未来，那永远得出的是周期结论😅这毫无意义😅 你不愧是秦始皇… Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

@hanking66 对比图一和图二，就能看出内存周期股的利润波动有多大，图二是 2023 年第一季度的 mu 利润情况，图一是上个季度的。peg 是图三的紫色线（上蹿下跳）。大家担心的都是存储周期。 https://t.co/V8CNH5y8mU

Physical AI + Humanoids are the next progression of AI. $NVDA CES 2025 projections and Elon's prediction on $TSLA + 1 Billion humanoids in the next decade, seems to be speeding up. New statement from Unitree CEO after testing GPT-6 on their humanoid program was that: - In August, before GPT-6's release, Wang said the industry could take two to three years at its fastest pace, or as long as a decade, to reach its "ChatGPT moment" - Now, OpenAI's GPT-6 model prompted expectations that a breakthrough could happen "within 1 or 2 years" - He defined that moment as robots being able to complete around 80 per cent of tasks in 80 per cent of unfamiliar environments using voice or text commands. - "It's possible that, say, a GPT-7 model released next year could directly crack the problems of embodied intelligence" - "The whole embodied intelligence industry has been shaken up after the release of GPT-6" Just looking at some benchmarks on robotic hand manipulation, "On the bowl task Astra placed the block in 19 of 20 trials, against Fable 5.1's 8 of 20". But for the puzzle task "Astra completed the insertion 2 times in 20 against Fable 5.1's 2 in 20"".. so we're getting there. But going from 2-3 years (potentially to a decade), and compressing that down to 1 or 2 years (to achieve 80%+ of tasks in unfamiliar environemnts) is a significant change in outlook.

昨天 Meta 又发布了全新的「西瓜」大模型，股价应声上涨 3%！🍉🚀 自从 Muse 发布以来，无论是讨论热度、下载量、用户留存，还是好评率，表现都相当炸裂，堪称现象级 AI 应用！🔥 虽然 Muse 目前还是免费状态，但以现在的日活和用户黏性，一旦开启商业化，未来完全有潜力成为 Meta 的另一台印钞机！💰😅 最魔幻的是什么？ 一边是 AI 应用已经跑出了现象级的成功案例，另一边半导体却还在跌跌不休，市场整天担心 AI 烧钱烧不动了，担心资本支出见顶了，担心 AI 泡沫要破了。🤦 结果扎克伯格反手就是一巴掌： 去尼玛的 AI 泡沫论！去尼玛的 AI 毁灭论！ 🤣 你们这群外行，倒是看看已经尝到甜头的 Meta，会不会停止烧钱？😅 现在是什么时候？是 AI 军备竞赛最激烈的时候！谁不烧钱谁就是傻逼，谁不烧钱谁就等着被淘汰！😇 任何一个脑子正常的 CEO，都不可能在这个时候主动放慢 AI 投资的脚步！ 这个时候不把油门踩到底，难道等竞争对手把市场抢光了再踩？ 🤣 你要是真敢因为害怕泡沫而踩刹车，搞不好董事会第一个就把你开了！😂 AI 就是未来！这是百年难遇的生产力大革命，是一场可能重塑整个世界经济的技术革命！ 结果你却整天担心它是不是到头了？🤣 股市有涨有跌太他妈正常了！今天会跌，明天可能还会跌，以后也一定还会有更大的回撤！ 但问题是，你每次跌都怕，每次怕都跑，每次涨起来又后悔，那你真的连吃屎都赶不上热乎的！ 🤣 你现在羡慕那些 700 抄底美光 $MU 的大佬，觉得人家抄底抄得真牛逼。 可你有没有想过，当初美光跌到 700 的时候，市场上又有多少人敢买？😏 你羡慕的从来不是人家的买入价格，而是人家在市场恐慌的时候，依然敢于坚持自己的判断。 如果你真的眼红那些 700 抄底美光的人，那你现在就应该知道自己该怎么做了。😎 Buy the dip. 长期持有。Discord 在个人资料。🚀

So spent some more time to look at more DBS conference material: - "Two semiconductor giants, $AVGO and $INTC, both stated that breakthroughs in AI will keep demand for chip investment elevated for at least another 2 years. As current supply is insufficient to meet market demand." - "Current chip production capacity is already far from sufficient to meet demand, and $AVGO CEO expects the shortage to become even more severe in the future." (HKEJ) - "Regarding OpenAI, Hock Tan stated that the market had misinterpreted the company because its underlying fundamentals remained strong. He argued that investors who sell based on a single short-term data point [$50B ARR] are "essentially no different from people gambling in a casino." (eg. Hong Kong Economic Journal): - Commenting on investors' disappointment in OpenAI’s latest revenue forecast: "by itself, not that bad" on their $50B ARR. (Business Times) And connected investors' disappointment to a failure to understand the business and excessive expectations like a casino. - Tan rejected the proposition that OpenAI was overvalued. It quotes him saying: "It’s almost like they are in a casino gambling" in regards to investors' unrealistic expectations and lack of understanding on OpenAI. - Hock Tan if OpenAI and Anthropic achieve widespread market adoption: their attractiveness would substantially strengthen their bargaining power when raising capital. But cautioned elevated global interest rates could make capital requirements a constraint for future growth. - The real driver, he said, is whether frontier AI companies can create models that generate enough value and returns to justify the buildout. (which is fair) - Most companies are wasting money on tokens. He also warned that most companies just waste money spending tokens like kids in a video arcade. This part was the most badly worded by Hock Tan given he's running $AVGO. But Western media commentary narrowed this down to: - "Shortage of capital now, AI Investors are gamblers". In the conference, Broadcom's CEO was actually defending frontier lab valuations and giving cautiously bullish statements about AI infrastructure demand. While citing rising interest rates as a potential constraint that larger revenue or adoption could overcome. Cherry picking quotes out of context disorts the actual messaging. TLDR: - Large and elevated AI semi demand, semi supply insufficient to meet market demand. At least another 2 years of elevated spend - OpenAI valuations defensible, people who sell based on extreme expectations for the company are like casino gamblers. - Tan stated markets had misinterpreted OpenAI's ARR because its underlying fundamentals remained strong. - Frontier labs if they achieve widespread adoption / revenue would strengthen capital raising, which overpower headwinds from raising interest rates. Lot of $AVGO CEO remarks looks heavily nuanced, which Western media coverage distored.

目前的走势的确跟 7 月非常非常像。半导体跌得非常多，韩股跌得非常多。但是纳斯达克微跌，然后大科技有些还在涨。走法来讲，其实就是 7 月的复刻版。 但和 7 月不同的是，半导体板块的基本面其实是比 7 月那个时候更好了一点。然后马上又要新的财报季开启了，我预计基本面只有更强。所以从理论上分析，这一波下跌的幅度应该远低于 7 月。 我疑惑的是，为什么会选择在这个没有任何事情发生的时间点上下跌？它要跌完全可以等财报季出来以后 sell the news 的形式跌，而偏偏要在财报季前几天开始这波回调。这真的非常非常奇怪。难道真的是机构想在这次财报季上狠狠拉一波？在财报季前再割一批带血的筹码？ 而且半导体整体估值其实并不高，没有啥泡沫。大部分股票其实都很便宜。基本面也都很好。情绪面甚至可以说偏低。离狂热更是差得十万八千里。在这种环境下面，继续下跌的动能其实很弱的。如果后面的财报季还能 sell the news，那我真不知道美股现在的逻辑到底是什么了。你总不可能说 AI 不发展了吧？AI 是假的吧😅 分析来分析去，我还是觉得半导体没有什么问题。现在跌的多，也许财报季就真的起飞了。坚持住，再怎么扛也肯定要扛到财报季之后再说，财报季会给出答案的。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

按照今天的跌法，我估计我又要当孤勇者，逆行发帖 30 条🤣反正已经习惯了，也就我会在下跌的时候告诉你不要卖，买起来。别人只会吓唬你，存储完蛋了，没救了，和七月一样😅 很多人评价我就知道会无脑做多。你在这种环境你喊一个多看看，评论区把你冲烂了不可。我自己还一大裤兜存储多单，自己亏得麻麻的，还要发帖安慰你们，然后再被你们骂，我容易吗？ 无脑做多，长期持有其实很难的，身边大部分都是短线，只有极少数人愿意真的长期持有，如果长期持有真的那么简单，为什么坚持下来的认那么少呢？不应该躺赢吗？ 长期持有才是真男人，他是完全站在人性之上的一种炒股方式，平时讲长期持有大家觉得不就是装死，无脑最多吗？有啥难？今天拿出来说，大家估计就有体会有多难了吧🤣 晒个仓位，一股没卖，一股没动，持仓成本 930，综合成本应该 700 多，我一直在，不会卖的，我只想信我自己认准的事情，我不会被任何人影响到。 存储加油💪热巴加油💪！ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

夜盘还在跌，k 线滑滑梯，和德芙一样丝滑，但有一说一，公司还是那个公司，没有任何变化，变化的只是价格好和情绪。 我花了非常多的时间试图为下跌找到合理的解释，勉强能匹配的解释是达子的 5000 亿表外循环融资和陈立武的言论：ai 的瓶颈是资金。 还有就是 28 年存储扩产导致行业周期。 这两条消息结合起来，市场又拿出了七月的剧本，老调重弹，毫无新意。我都无力吐槽。拿原来的利空在发一遍，居然还会有人恐慌，华尔街真的坏透了。 我说真的，这有啥好怕的，存储的 pe 本来就是周期股逻辑，还能跌到哪里去，搞得好像存储现在有泡沫一样😅 我的观点不变，无限看好硬件，市场只不过又拿现在的环境去预判未来了，预判个毛线，预判完又发现低估了，人类大脑有局限的，ai 改变了一切，别说华尔街没见过了，硅谷大佬都没见过😅还预计 28 年，能预计出啥？ai 停止发展了吗？谁又能在两年前预计到如今存储缺成这样？到了 28 年你又会发现，依旧一存难求🤣🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

睡醒一看还在跌…真尼玛，看到有不少新闻分析，说是在计价 28 年扩产😅说实话关于这种说法 7 月的时候不是已经讨论过一遍了吗？怎么过去三个月又拿出来说一遍？ 1.现在的扩产最快也要 29 年才能体现出来。 2.长协签订 5 年起步，已经签到 31 年了 3.下一代的 hbm 是定制化 hbm，和芯片高度绑定在一起的。 4.需求增长速度远超产能增长速度，人工智能需求还在初期。 跌起来鬼故事是挺吓人，不吓人也不会跌这么多😅但是一定要分清楚什么是噪音什么是本质，多听听马斯克，老黄，老陈他们怎么说的，也可以多听听存储的财报怎么说的。 多思考，少操作，不要人云亦云，盲目跟风，多听行业内部人员怎么说，少听华尔街敲键盘，7 月比现在惨多了，我们也扛回来了，那个时候还有大量的杠杆平仓，现在至少没这些压力🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Wow this is sad to see Korean markets with $SKHY / Samsung crash like this. Special thanks to $AVGO CEO adding fuel the fire… Calling AI investors gamblers and saying enterprise AI isn’t delivering ROI. https://t.co/fHzsD9Na4s

Sure... Random train of thoughts on markets now, optics like $LITE / memory + $IREN / Anthropic. On Memory: - Demand visibility on $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix extend into 2030-2031. Samsung has LTAs covering 70% of their capacity into 2031 (likely with SK Hynix type price floors)... and their operating profit is already absurd. There's a consensus that shortage in 2027 will be much more severe than 2026... Even $SNDK expends gross margins to exceed 80% entering 2030. You're going to hear Acer and other CEOs that want memory prices to go down cite bear cases like CXMT/YMTC, and Chinese players. But just looking at supply procurement that $NVDA is doing + hyperscalers, demand visibility is absurd for the next 5 years. And by that time, cumulative FCF coming in from these take/pay + pricing floor contracts might exceed some of their entire marketcaps so it feels like there's some baseline. Near-term is always volatile (IV dropped a ton across $EWY to $DRAM to $MU), so people with call options likely got nuked, along with underlying prices. But if Samsung is 3x 2027E, has 5 year LTAs with 70% of capacity committed from hyperscalers, and price floors, it's kinda hard to see these names suffer a sustained crash... For optics: - $LITE is literally sold out into 2029, starting discussions into 2030. With demand visibility lasting into 2031… with hyperscalers largely funding the capacity buildout. Their 2028 Greensboro fab expansion was ~$5B in UHP laser capacity revenue alone, yet it’s basically allocated toward $NVDA (50%+ with options for more) and co from channel checks. Existing supply chain bottlenecks are extremely severe as optical content/XPU skyrockets entering 2027-2028. So everything from DSPs/TIAs, photodiodes, lasers, InP/SOI substrates, wafers (epi, SOI, etc) are expected to go brrr. And what does that imply to anyone else with enormous amounts of capacity coming online like $AAOI + $SIVE + $MTSI capacity expansion in 2027? Or other players like Sumitomo / Furukawa? But again it's not quite the same situation as memory since the BOM % is extremely low in a cluster... If micron/samsung raised another 2000% hyperscalers would go bankrupt. But doing that for InP substrates seems possible. Or a 100% increase on CW laser content. I actually thought $LITE was overvalued at $100B+ MC, relative to capacity expansion on your smaller optical players to their respective MCs. So I chose to position accordingly (But lumentum does deserve premiums for demand visibility). For the companies leading the charge like $NVDA / $AVGO / $MRVL: - Nvidia has 70% forward revenue growth FY2028 which is supply constrained growth. - Broadcom 100% Y/Y for 2027/2028 which is also supply constrained growth. - Marvell FY2031 upgraded guidance to $70B-$90B from $46B analyst projections... They all seem to be very happy.... and read through on demand for next 2-3 years is enormous (also echoing what $INTC CEO said today on the panel with $AVGO CEO). So you have overwhelming growth on memory + photonics + from the leaders... But the nuance is not everything in the AI supply chain get the same economic benefit. HBM/Laser/CPU/MLCC and other players in the bottlenecks look to be printing money. And seem to be the largest beneficiaries of the current bottlenecks. Test players are also getting price hikes + capacity allocated by players like $NVDA, but economic impact seems a tad lower than other players since forward P/E for many I modeled were still in the 45x+ range even if you hiked prices like 10-30%. As for capex intensive players... there's some like $IREN ($25-30B for 2027) that despite a deal with Anthropic ended up dropping. I don't think markets seem to appreciate players spending a lot of money + ongoing financing (think they're like halfway through their $6B ATM). Just some hopium for $IREN investors, $NBIS also signed a deal with $META at the start of the year (but markets didn't care at all, since Nebius dropped to ~$70-80 at the lowest point?). But did 6 months later, as the time to revenue inflection gets closer and you're past the ATM/capex window, markets would likely care more. I don't think it's irrational but at the same time, the fundamentals have improved from Mirantis acquisition to others. I also think it was known for awhile it was either OpenAI/Anthropic from CEO comments earlier too? But either way to be a more risk-off environment where funds seem to be rotating to larger names as a flight to safety. $CRWD / $PLTR as just two example, but my take is that the valuations of these rotations are reaching clown levels. And that certain AI supply chain beneficiaries in comparison are undervalued now. I was thinking markets would just rotate to names that are extremely profitable like Samsung or names that have <2X P/E, so it was surprising to see $KOSPI and some legacy memory players get sold off today. Since all of this is colliding with uncertainty about sht macro environments and renewed sustainability concern of AI capex/commitments from frontier labs like OpenAI/Anthropic from due to that FT piece recently. I've always been sounding the alarm about the contractual backlog OpenAI has with $CBRS, $MSFT, $ORCL and others earlier in the year. But OpenAI did just raise $122B or so , so I don't quite think they're at risk of going down anytime soon. I also don't think overall capex can just exponentially go up, but even if it stalls / hovers around a certain point or even drops... Capex toward certain areas like optics will still explode as hyperscalers fight over allocations when CPO scale up comes about, but might drop in others where more capacity comes online like test or DRAM. So it's a lot more nuanced than capex down = everything down or vice versa. I also slightly agree with community agreements that open weight models wouldn't lessen demand on AI infrastructure (otherwise $NVDA wouldn't be funneling funds into Reflection), but all the contractual obligations that Anthropic has might get messy if their models/company get cannibalized. Either way, I'd expect some of these frontier lab valuations to likely compress but I do think Jensen knows what he's doing though to avoid contagion. But basically: - Extremely difficult market now, can't just throw money at any AI supply chain company like $GLW and expect it to go up. There's cause for concern of rate hikes mixed with financing per $AVGO CEO but not to the point you just blindly sell off everything. Also I think markets are stupid and ties baskets together so that leads to mispricing + individual buying opportunities with certain chokepoints too. If capacity + demand is visible and forward p/e compresses like $AAOI to single digits off hundreds or thousands of percent growth from hyperscalers off $471m transceiver revenues and hundreds of thousands of monthly ELSFP capacity. Or $SIVE coming online with 100M+ laser capacity + multiple foundries with ASP hikes on lasers. I wouldn't lump them into other AI supply chain names in IP like $RMBS or others. My take is that AI supply chain beneficiaries with closer inflection points, demand visibility, and forward P/E compressing due to economic leverage would likely outperform medium term despite current volatility. TLDR: - Memory strongest risk/adjusted return with LTAs + pricing floors extending to 2030's + buybacks. - My opinion is that optical supercycle for 2027-2028 with CPO/NPO is going to look absurd relative to capacity coming online of smaller suppliers. - Overwhelming fundamentals/growth colliding with sht macro + media scares - Markets are stupid and groups things in baskets and sells them all off together or buys overvalued names, creating short/long opportunities I'd give a prayer to people on short term options given underlying drop + IV decline, but there could be a reversal... who knows. Most valuable thing right now is time.

@aleabitoreddit @SiversSemicond Serenity please give us some cope we are panicking out here with photonic stocks and memory 😭

马斯克今天发了好多关于存储的内容，难道他真的要造存储了？还是他买美光了😨 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

如果你玩短线别关注我，真的…我不适合你们。我是超级长线，超级超级长线，可以走完几个周期的那种，你跟我抱怨涨跌真的没意义😅我完全不关心的。 我越来越觉得，炒股真的好寂寞，身边都是短线，想赚快钱，我跟他讲基本面，他跟我讲跌了😅感觉跟跨服聊天没区别😂 天天坐着一夜暴富梦，每天盯个 k 线看，一天情绪全被股票拿捏，日子过不好，股票赚不到，何苦呢😅 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Take my money!

美光这次财报，出现了一个相当魔幻的现象。😅 财报发布后，2027财年EPS一致预期上调了 12.7%，但股价非但没涨，反而较财报前下跌了 7.6%。 这一涨一跌，直接导致美光的前瞻PE压缩了约 18%，只剩下 5.59倍！ 也就是说，原本估值就不高的美光，交出一份历史级别的财报之后，不但没能证明自己值得更高的估值，反而变得更便宜了。😅 我们做一道简单的数学题： 假设美光的PE只是维持在这次财报前的6.82倍，按照最新2027财年EPS预期176美元计算，股价就应该在 1,200美元左右。 对比现在约984美元的股价，还有 22%的上涨空间！ 注意，这甚至不需要市场给美光更高的估值，只需要恢复到几周前的PE水平。😅 但更离谱的还在后面！ 这种业绩越来越好、估值却越来越低的背离，已经连续出现了两次财报。 如果把6月24日那次财报也算进去，按照相同的2027财年盈利口径折算： 现在984美元的美光，在估值上相当于6月财报前约660美元的美光！ 😱 没错，你没看错！ 不是说美光股价真的跌回了660美元，而是说，经过连续两次盈利预期上修，今天你为每一美元预期利润支付的价格，已经相当于当时股价只有660美元左右的水平。 两次财报，盈利预期一路上修，股价却不涨反跌。 业绩向上，股价向下，估值被双重压缩。 市场当然可以担忧存储周期见顶，也可以质疑未来利润的持续性。但如果这些盈利预期最终兑现，现在的估值究竟有多便宜，应该不难理解了吧？🥰 在我看来，美光现在缺的不是业绩，而是市场愿意重新相信这些业绩。 Buy the dip，长期持有。Discord 在个人资料。

@StockMKTNewz No crying in the casino

980 买到的爽了🤣可以传家了 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

我有很大仓位的存储，非常大，为了对冲半导体的风险，我买了 30%仓位的谷歌做对冲，这部分谷歌今天发挥了作用，虽然仓位不大，但是对内心的安慰作用还是非常巨大的。我也强烈建议拥有半导体的朋友，同时买入大科技（nvda 特斯拉除外），这类大科技能平滑你的收益曲线，对你长期持有半导体会非常有帮助。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

关于美光的买点，今天 980 是一个，这是美光 60 日均线支撑，日内已经四次试探反弹。 然后接下去就是 930，930 是一个非常强的支撑，这里至少聚集了三周的筹码，我不认为美光这波回调能够跌破这个位置，除非出现实质性的利空。 目前消息面上看不出有啥坏消息，有人说长鑫的突破，但是长鑫自己跌的妈都不认了，怎么看都是跟长鑫没关系。😅 汇报完毕了，你们爱买不买…我已尽力🥰 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

炒股最大禁忌就是跌了想跑，涨了想追😂 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

评论区又骂开了😅感觉很多人也交出筹码了，似曾相识的感觉😅，反正便宜货往往出现在大家骂的最厉害的时候😂看我评论区的情绪炒股也许是一个不错的短线策略😗 骂归骂，真别卖了，你要卖也不应该这个时候卖，我真的替你们好😅 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

刚才有人买了吗？美光 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

如果不买存储你想买啥？我真挺想问问各位的🤣有啥只涨不跌的股票也推荐我一下，我看了一圈下来，除了光板块异常强势外，别的真的有几个能比美光还好的？😅 你连拿个美光都要嫌弃这嫌弃那，你换成别的，你早就崩溃了，买美光至少还有我给你心灵马杀鸡，你买个别的，真的你就自己默默守护吧😅 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

我理解不了有啥扛不住的，这才跌多少😅就扛不住了，你买啥只涨不跌啊😲美光算跌的少的了，也就 1100 跌到 1000，跌 100 块怎么感觉比跌到 700 还痛苦？？你看看 intc，看看 nbis，看看 arm，这些不得要跳楼了😅？还有glw，crwv，orcl，cbrs这些，离新高还有十万八千里，我美光哪怕你们嘴里的天天跌，离新高不也就在眼前吗😅我不知道你们的痛苦来自哪里？我真不理解，失去感也太重了吧，都是数字波动罢了。 我为什么体感就还好，我仓位也不小啊，我一天上下波动的钱应该赢过你们 99%的人😅但是我真的十分自信，完全不担心存储会崩，确定性如此之强的股票，历史罕见，出现下跌，我只恨没有多余的钱买入。而不是急着卖出，喊着扛不住了🤣🤣 我认真的，你如果连美光都拿不住，你买别的只会亏更多😇😇 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

川，听到了吗？别打了，快 taco 吧，早撤军，早降息，早起飞。别死磕朗子了，没意思的…股市起飞你就是美国总统界的 GOAT😅 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/QzvWM0BXMK

@hanking66 别吹了，扛不住，今天又是被存储暴打的一天。再便宜的东西卖的人比买的人多，那就得跌

财报季马上开始，我站在存储的角度上，最重要的财报就是我圈出来的三个，这三个因为是最早的软件硬件代表，所以决定了整个财报季的风向标。 第一个是这周四的台积电，第二个是下下周二的海力士， 第三个是下下周三的谷歌和微软，这三波扛过去，基本这个Q的财报季就基本定性了。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

在下跌的时候市场很容易忽略一个事实，那就是存已经很便宜很便宜了，你可以说它是周期，低pe是陷阱，但是无法否认存就是很便宜。目前任何一个存的股价都是远低于他的赚钱能力&增速。低 pe 的原因是有人不信，但是我信，市场会奖励这批先相信的人🤣 当然不信也没问题，你就等 pe15 的时候买也行，不会有什么问题的🙃🙃 另外再说一句，资本其实不傻的，水永远往低处流，钱永远往价值洼地去，优质资产就那么几个，存就是目前的山顶上的明珠，你不买永远有的是人买🫠 这些道理我在当初跌到 700 的时候都说烂了，现在在 1000 的时候再说一遍，年底看看是不是这么回事😅 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

热巴（ $mu）1000保卫战，能守住吗？我是完全看不出来任何利空，接下来的财报季只会显示越来越缺存储，越来越赚钱。市场不相信，那只能用数据打他们脸了🤣🤣 打一次不够就打两次，打两次不够就打三次，反正打脸打到现在了吧，直到打服为止。🤣🤣 另外要信就早信，别跌到 1000 不买，涨回 1300 了问我能不能卖🤣🤣，这样的问题每天都有人问我，我真的被问的有点想笑了🤭 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

越来越觉得我这文章说的有道理，股价疲软，墙倒万人推…股价一飞冲天，又各种看好🤦，其实还是跟着价格波动炒股而已。 所以知道这点之后，就会发现跌的时候全世界都是利空，情绪会出现极度的悲观，哪怕这个企业本身好的要死，任何毛病都没有了…但大家就是自己吓自己🫠 哎，跟着新闻炒股太累了，还是拿着迟钝一点的好，真的，不然弦绷着早晚断😇 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

不说了，我先冲了，质疑存储的空头你们过来和 Musk对线啊…快点来喷 elon 是个外行，没你懂存储🐸🐸🐸 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

既然你说跌了一周，那我们看看周线，这线我怎么看都不觉有问题，而且你说被砸了一周，一看也就是-4.27%…我怎么感觉还不如平时一天的波动呢🤣你到底在害怕什么🤔 你都叫 CFA 了，怎么跟个散韭似的🤦至少要对得起你的 id 吧😅 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/jNFaMucrN8

尽管 $MU 已经从700多涨到了1000多，但因为近期股价反复震荡、迟迟无法突破前高，市场上又开始出现各种看空的声音： 利好早就 Price in 了、80%的利润率不可持续、存储周期快结束了…… 但我一直很好奇： 究竟是因为你判断存储周期即将结束，所以认为股价涨不动？还是因为股价暂时涨不动，你才反过来寻找周期结束的理由？ 🤔 至少在我看来，这一轮存储行业管理层展现出的信心，是过去从未见过的。 以前，硬件行业的 CEO 通常只敢给出下个季度的指引，最多对明年做一些模糊的展望。 但现在呢？ 他们可以明确谈论2028年的产能已经售罄，甚至签下延伸至2030年的长期战略协议。 对于一个传统上高度周期性的硬件行业来说，这种可见度是极其罕见的。 有趣的是，现在很多人看着 $MU，觉得它涨了这么多、迟迟不创新高，风险太大，不值得买。 但一旦它突破并创下全新高点，同样这些人会叫嚣着它是显而易见的买入机会，并后悔为什么没早点进场。 同样的公司，同样的基本面，仅仅因为股价突破了一条线，市场的叙事就能彻底反转。 市场有时候就是这么有趣。 很多人以为自己在分析基本面，其实只是在替股价寻找解释。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。