《路透》引述消息人士报道，长鑫科技(https://t.co/PzImRfAppG)考虑在北京建造第二间记忆体晶片工厂，目前正在寻求北京经济技术开发区至少6,000万元人民币的资金支持，其他国有科技公司亦有意参与融资。 报道称，长鑫科技正在上海及合肥建设新工厂，并与其他地区的相关部门就另一间厂房的潜在选址进行磋商。在这些项目全面投产后，其产能可望增加一倍，达到每月60万块以上。 据悉，目前长鑫科技在合肥经营两座12吋DRAM晶圆厂，在北京有一座晶圆厂，每座晶圆厂的月产能约为10万块晶圆。 我看了下时间，正好对上盘前的下跌。存储现在真的即脆弱又敏感。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

这不是利好吗？？ 我一直在想一个问题，川普其实非常不尊重伊朗，伊朗哪怕被打成筛子，出于尊严问题也不会和美国谈判，战争到了这个阶段，伊朗说实话已经扛过了最难的阶段，川子想要再用轰炸逼伊朗服软，几乎没有可能。拖可能是伊朗最稳的方案，你导弹再多，也很难把伊朗炸服。 但是伊朗也被动，毕竟经济太难了，油运不出去，收入几乎没有了，经济几乎一塌糊涂。还有来自邻国的压力，虽说你可以说自己是被害者，但是时间久了，很有可能从被害者变成世界的反派，没有一个国家愿意和全世界为敌。 所以伊朗完全可以自己找台阶和其他国家谈判，比如阿曼。本来海峡和你美国也没有毛线关系，和邻国签一份海峡协议，既可以维持强硬姿态，但是本质又能化解和世界的矛盾。美国呢其实也可以独自宣布海峡已打开，实现了战争目标。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

“如果七月能躲过下跌，为什么要死扛” 五月的时候其实也有人要觉得要跌，只不过他们被埋了，你听不到他们的声音 六月的时候也有人觉得要跌，只不过他们被埋了，你听不到他们的声音 七月的时候他们说对了，所以声音被你们听到了 八月依旧80%的人觉得还要跌，不相信会涨，这回看看是不说话了还是继续高谈阔论 这就是我不跑的原因…躲下跌就是躲上涨，涨得多了就觉得要跌，在未来一定会吃苦头的，真正的敬畏市场不是躲下跌或者预测波动，而是和下跌共存。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

真的太魔幻了，跌一个月为什么有一种已经跌了一年的感觉，给我感觉好像已经加息了，特朗普被伊朗斩首了，大科技都宣布放弃 ai了……空头们怎么都站在领奖台宣布获奖感言了？我看有的空头都已经在总结经验了，不知道还以为要出个人传记了🤦 事实是：七月没加息，七月大科技继续加大开支，七月美伊没有什么变化，七月大部分财报都是破纪录的好，七月的经济数据也是预期之内。 所以七月到底发生了什么利空呢？？？有人能指出一个七月实际发生的利空吗？一个就够了…感谢回复 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

你去问妈祖不好吗🤣

周五是非农，我弄错了，那重要程度可以少一个最字，非农现在的影响力其实已经减弱了不少，没有几年前那么重要了 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

来自死多头的下周展望： 1.下周最最最重要的就是周五的 cpi，如果低于预期，至少加息的噪音可以消停两周直到月底的 pce 数据公布，对于数据我从来不担心，川普上位后数据就没什么意外过，印象中这么久似乎就一次数据不好。这点上我还是很放心川普的🤦 2.下周有 spcx 的财报和解禁，解禁砸出来的黄金坑大概率可以是一个买点。 3.存储板块我非常看好整个八月，讲了一个月的鬼故事了，结果资本支出没减反增，长协一个又一个，在基本面越来越好的情况下，股价越来越低，这就是最好的投资机会。 4.美伊战争反反复复，我早就懒得看了，还在担心美伊战争的人，可以去参考下俄乌或者伊拉克战争，一个还没结束，一个打了八年，其实没有啥不同🤦 最后，不要卖出你的股票，其他交给时间 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

伊朗：假的！！ 下一步，川普要开始炸伊朗了，各位做好心理准备 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/cs5WS1Wqhc

？？？

基本和我说的差不多，基本面太好了，下跌只是下跌，都会回来的，而且会新高 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/7EvCyDr358

做空的朋友不要怕，你们的伊朗兄弟会出来辟谣的🤦🤦 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

长鑫进 dram 了 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/8VnKrLuGP4

特朗普宣布美国已取消对伊朗的攻击。 并表示他们已同意一项协议的边界，以开放海峡并结束核计划。 答应我八月对我们好一点☘☘ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Trump announced that US has cancelled its attack on Iran. And that they’ve agreed to the perimeters of a deal to open the Strait and end the nuclear program. Anyone else feel like they’ve aged a few years in the past 6 months? https://t.co/4PK671c548

$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs: Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory. And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand. This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps. I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.

【月更贴】来了来了，交作业了。七月-50%，账号YTD从120%变成17%，七月整个腰斩。有谁还能比我惨😭😭😭你们可以开始笑我了🫠🫠 亏损当然是DRAM和MU带来的。我一直超级重仓存储，对存储的看法从未动摇，也会继续坚持。 希望我的回撤能让处在至暗时刻的你心里好受一点。我说过，亏钱时大家一起亏，不用过于忧伤。这也不是我第一次经历这种时刻，之后你们会看到我如何从巨大回撤中再创新高。说一万句不如让账户说话更有效🤦 很多人让我晒持仓，想看的可以进DC社区看我直播。我不是涨了就晒收益、亏了就装死的人，一直对粉丝公开透明。有人说我骗粉丝、根本没买，我问：全网有见过像我这样晒账户总YTD的吗？我不是涨了才晒，是固定每月1日晒哦，这可是有巨大区别的，反正我没见过月更账户 YTD 的，希望别再说我不晒持仓了，在我眼里，没有比账户YTD更有说服力的了。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

The media framing and X reactions around Leopold are egregious. Framing his successful multi-year thesis from $SNDK to $BE as a "collapse" or "failure". After July's surprising crash, then personally attacking him on top is just pathetic to witness. It's almost like everyone is cheering for the downfall of others. Yes, July's crash exposed problems with SA’s leverage, liquidity management, and hedging. But his current YTD performance remains +80%, ranking among the best performing hedge funds. And he still has public equities after all this (just removed leverage). I think he's doing something unique while being successful at it. And this draws the envy of others.

As a earnings recap: $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT guided a 2026 combined capex forecast to ~$720-$745 Billion. Up from $695-$725B Billion previously. Amazon: $220B Google: $195B-$205B Meta: $130B-$145B Microsoft: $175B We've already seen significant deleveraging and retail/institutional margin liquidations (maybe it continues for more time, who knows). But medium-long term, I'm not quite sure how anyone can be bearish the upstream semis or neoclouds. Given each hyperscaler has flagged either compute shortages, rising cloud demand + pricing power, or increased spending for chips/networking. My "bottleneck" thesis with many of these upstream semi supply chains is that when trillions in capital flows into things from InP substrates or memory (which were both treated as cheap commodities) or even energy. Lot of these current AI names that were treated as useless before in telecom cycles or even toilet sellers. Gets rerated when their inflection period hits and capex flows into their balance sheets. As seen with $NVDA GPUs past few years, memory this year, CPUs/MLCCs next few years, CPO in 2027, Glass Substrates in 2027, 800V in 2027, and so on.

市场还给谷歌一个清白，今天大涨 6% Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

$RDDT ER in a nutshell: Revenue: $804.9M vs. $730.4M (expected). EPS: $1.25 vs. ~$0.95. Net income: $252.8M vs. $196.5M Q3 guidance: Revenue: $860–870M vs. 829.1M Adjusted EBITDA: $385-395M vs. $369M Blowout financials, market always like to explain the drop 22.6% off some new BS narrative. Last quarter: "AI will disrupt Reddit causing revenue loss!" This quarter: "See, DAU fell .6%!" (proceeds to ignore any revenue/profitability growth)

亚马逊 15%，冲击新高。涨涨很快的🤦 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

今天硬件有涨有跌，这不是之前那种结构性去杠杆的下跌，而是出于昨天大幅上涨的止盈回调。无需太担心。 上涨是一个过程，两个月的回调，需要消化天量的抛压，要耐心，慢慢来，不要被波动影响到情绪，你现在要做的就是管猪手，别瞎操作。 当然今天是给上车机会了，白天有不少人问还能上车吗？现在正是机会。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

不卖怎么会亏钱，不上杠杆怎么输，就是因为大家没有我这么坚定，没有勇气，我才每天高强度输出，给大家信心，为了不就是一件事：不要卖，不要卖…长期持有 我有没有技术不重要，我也不在意，但是你这个 mu600 技术含量有点过于高了😂 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

苹果买中国内存的可能性为 1% Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/4ixwlAe7Hd

Just a TLDR of this week: Media: Hyperscalers overbuilt and are selling excess compute. -> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, and $AMZN: Demand for compute far exceeds capacity. Capex go brrr. Institutions: Emergency rate hike or 3x rate hikes, it's all over. -> Kevin Warsh: No rate Hike. Retail/Media: AI is crashing because it's a bubble. -> Citadel looking to buy AI leveraged hedge funds positions: 👀 Jim Cramer: Sell all your leveraged DC stocks. -> Koreans: SK Hynix +30%, Samsung +26.81%

Now that I think of it more, $POET optical interposer piece is actually a little more material than I thought with $SIVE. Originally the wording was "readiness" for EOY 2026. But $POET upgraded that wording, by stating "production" with Sivers lasers projected EOY 2026. So a volume orders from across $JBL to $POET, should hit in H1 2027. Which makes a bit of sense, since Sivers did raise an institutional oversubscribed round for future mass production. On a side note, can't believe it's already August and 5 months left until 2027... Which was my inflection window for glass substrates, CPO, 800v, and new architectures to ramp.

有几个人能做到我这样长期持有的？别说跌两个月了，跌三天就慌了，这一波下跌，骂我没有技术含量，骂我只知道喊多，但是越是大量的人骂我，月说明长期持有是多么难以做到。 我可以这么说，你们看不上的长期持有，99%的人做不到…因为它是反人性的，我自己持有过，我知道这条路走起来有多艰难 每个人都想成为巴菲特，每个人都学不来巴菲特 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

经典傻屌言论，我喊的是涨吗？我从来喊的不是涨，我喊的是： 存！储！还！是！起！点！（高音） 存！储！要！新！高！（破音） 哪怕至暗时刻，哪怕已经没有人相信了，哪怕全世界都放弃了，我都是这么喊的，两个月，没有一天停止过。我只相信我看到的！ 天地良心！ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

For $XFAB ER transcript: Just to recap, my idea on $XFAB foundry growth opportunities stemmed from SiC for 800v and photonixfab/MTP for CPO applicability. - $XFAB: "We are making progress in co-packaged optics". - "The transition to 800v... is expected to support demand for both SiC and GaN... for XFAB" So those analysts/people that were confidently bearposting about $XFAB that they had "0 exposure to 800V, photonics, CPO" just turned out plainly wrong. At the time I shared my idea, industry materials showed ASE and others cited photonixfab + XFAB as an upcoming CPO player in EU. And filings showed they had exposure names like $NVTS / $POWI in general. So glad $XFAB went out to explicitly clear things up to state they were developing in CPO/800v. Okay back to the ER: - "We continue to expect photonics volume production to start in 2028". Company currently has three silicon photonics projects in development with key partners. I thought it would ramp sometime in H2 2027, but was probably early by a few months. - Several new data center design wins, eg. 3 new SiC design wins (consistent with general 2027 ramp as 800v deployment takes off). So once those ramp in 2027-2028, (markets tend to price things ahead of time), I'd expect $XFAB to be rerated based on growth opportunities. TLDR: - Current revenue numbers not as impressive. - $XFAB confirmed direct exposure to CPO and 800V shifts (biggest win for thesis) - 800V exposure opportunities for SiC (should be 2027) - Timeline is 2028 ramp for photonics volume production Happy exposure thesis to CPO/800V was confirmed from this ER. Might be a bit of waiting for revenue ramp.

我说新高是小丑，但斌也说新高可能就是高手🤦 喊了两个月的存储到头了，到底到没到头 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/xAWYp32A3S

@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts on the XFAB earnings yesterday? thank you in advance!

Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN: Amazon: - Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung) - Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027. - Most incoming 2027 capacity is already reserved, with substantial 2028 capacity also reserved. Mostly read through on upstream semis. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $MSFT all identified compute shortage. All the narratives a few weeks earlier was "excess compute" from Meta and others + hyperscalers cutting back on spend... All BS. Amazon earnings was very bullish on AI semi trade. AXTI: - AXT to double InP capacity during 2026. Then double again in 2027. This is expected to make AXT "by far the largest indium phosphide producer in the world." - LFG - Q2 rev was $47.6M, the highest quarterly revenue in AXT history (InP revenue reached a record $30.7M, from DC applications.) - Revenue increased 77% sequentially and 164% year over year. - InP revenue-capacity targets: $60M per quarter exiting 2026. - $130M per quarter exiting 2027 That $130m target could be hiked too since management stated they find "whatever ways to increase that capacity expansion" - Management said the reported backlog remains well above $100M, but that number no longer reflects all available demand. "Customer demand continues to outpace supply, no matter how fast we add capacity." 800G/1.6T is driving the current cycle, while NPO/CPO extends it beyond 2027. Also they're targeting 50%-plus gross margin: "We should definitely be targeting a number that begins with a five." China demand more than doubled, and their agreements with Casela, $COHR and $LITE did not materially drive Q2. This is not even considering my projected massive ASP hikes yet as InP substrates get more bottlenecked. TLDR: - Amazon too much compute demands, needs capex to fufill it, so upstream semis go brrr. - AXT world largest InP substrate supplier, high gross margins, expansion, and supply can't keep up with demand. Bullish on demand side from Amazon + capex. Bullish on upstream optical supply chains from too much demand.

看技术面永远看不到昨天的上涨，技术面永远是后视镜，等技术面显示了，那低点也和你无关了，从最低到 ma20，就用了 24 小时，你昨天说技术面走坏了，今天也许你又觉得走好了，但实际上只过了 24 小时而已😉 基本面不会骗人，它就在那里，合同，订单，财报，一家企业的赚钱能力就在那里。公司就在那里。管理层就在那里。投资永远是投公司，投管理层。技术面再怎么难看，好公司还是好公司。 这些话我在昨天上涨前说 会被无数人嘲讽嘲笑，今天说也许就更有说服力一点了，但实际上我的观点没有变过，变得只是价格。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

躲下跌就是躲上涨的含金量第 nnnnn 次被验证 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

涨涨很快的，美光一天到了 921，已经站上了 ma20，但是昨天夜盘美光 700 附近，那个时候社区最多的声音是是还没跌到位，还没到底，再等等。但是… 那个你觉得一定不能买的位置，你最确定还要跌的时刻，你最笃定还没跌到位的地方，结果才是真正的底部。 发现没有这是矛盾的，一个你觉得不能买的地方，却是应该要买的最佳点位，这就是抄不到底的原因。 附上昨天上涨之前的投票结果，感受下最绝望的时刻。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

预告：明天 8 月 1 号我会准时公布我的账户 YTD，说实话我有点迫不及待了🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

我应该是 x 上最后的死多头，他们是真的追着我骂，网暴了我足足两月，但是我没有一刻动摇过，每天跌每天喊，跌越多我的声音就越大，这个市场充满噪音，下跌得时候就是泥沙俱下，但是我只相信我自己看到的。 亏两个月不算什么，骂我的人希望天天涨，可是他们不知道，下跌永远躲不掉的，你越躲下跌，亏得越多，你不躲你可能一分钱都不会亏🤣🤣我说一万句，你也听不进去，可能还觉得我是傻逼，等你自己经历过了，你就知道我在说什么了，因为我自己也是这么成长过来的 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

经典评论，后视镜无敌哥，卖在最高买在最低的神，多少人像你说的那样操作，我就问现在他们上车了吗？会不会骗炮？会不会踏空？会不会 fomo 所有试图预测波动的人最后的结果就是被波动玩弄🤣你能说出这种话，说明你还年轻，还没被市场毒打过😂 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

苹果-6%，亚马逊+9%，这个时候资本开支上调就不是利空了🤦，指引不及预期都能起飞了，那谷歌财报暴跌找谁说理去？🤦 看来市场完全反转了，亚马逊这个财报放一周前可以-10％，放今天就是+10％。我当初给谷歌财报鸣冤的时候，还一堆人骂我不懂，那有没有懂哥告诉我这个财报和谷歌财报有啥区别吗？ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

我能一直错一直喊的底气就是我站在先进生产力的一方，我站在基本面的一边，我站在科技革命的一侧，告诉我怎么输？路越漫长，我赢的概率就越大🤦 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

@hanking66 不建议跳一天就去开香槟🍾，路还很漫长，小心又被打脸。

@hanking66 为什么要扛着呢 早早走等企稳再进来不是刚好，扛着到现在还不是等回本还白挨几十个点，你这水平久别误导人了，光喊多谁不会

Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve seen.

《涨涨很快的》，《躲下跌就是躲上涨》，我从来不相信有人可以卖在最高买在最低，一次可能是运气，但是绝对不可能一直如此。这波自作聪明止损，割肉，空仓的最好结局要么就是原地上车，差一点可能就是踏空追高，结果还不如一动不动。 这样的情况我见到太多了，我的风格就是十年中起起伏伏总结的最优解。是经历过时间考验的。也是对我来说收益最大化的方法。最适合普通人的。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

所有科技战士都要对微软说一句谢谢，没想到最终拯救我们的竟然是他！ 通过这次下跌，我也看穿了苹果，你就是硅谷恶霸！！！！ 明天还有亚马逊财报，因为微软打了样，我现在也是极度看好👌 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

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记住这个位置，记住现在的嘲笑声，记住这个痛，记住这些泪！这就是黄金坑的标志！！错过这次再等半年！ 之后一定会有人痛心疾首，嚎啕大哭，要是那个时候买就好了！！！ 做了2个月的小丑，被人笑话了2个月，目的就是更长久的未来我能笑的更大声！ 多头们~再抗几天！就几天！不要倒在黎明前！！！要相信科技！要相信未来！相信你亲眼看到的！！相信牛长熊短的纳斯达克牛市！！！ Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。