情绪还能再差一点吗？还有多少人觉得会涨？我的时间线已经天崩地裂了，所有人都是：还没跌到位，还要等大科技财报，也许要等英伟达确认，反弹我就减仓，跑了扛不住了，还好我早就割了，再跌一点我就买，技术面已经走坏了，大盘还没怎么跌，要去 xxxx 价格，完全没有止跌迹象，反弹都是逃生门… 当然还有那句最著名的，存储到头了！ 现在全他妈是这种…多军要么被打压的不敢说话了，要么就是已经背叛革命了 说实话我觉得真的差不多到底了，真的，已经完全一致看空了，达成一致了。多头已经被绑在十字架火烤了。 就跟 3 月 31 日一样，那个时候也没有人觉得跌到底了。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

我终于等到了这条新闻。。。。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

🇰🇷SOUTH KOREA WEIGHS SHORT-SELLING BAN The Korea Exchange has reportedly reviewed the technical feasibility of a temporary short-selling ban and tighter daily price limits to curb market volatility. Officials said no decision has been made, describing the review as a contingency exercise. Authorities are on high alert as sharp market declines fuel calls from retail investors for stronger stabilization measures.

七月的风八月的雨，卑微的我喜欢遥远的你。 你还未来怎敢老去，未来的我和你奉陪到底。 你若同意我一定去，可你并不在意我的出席。 你的过去无法参与，但我还是喜欢你。

There's a lot of stupid commentary around Leopold raising funds. After names like $BE, $SNDK, $SHAZ, and others all had very sharp drawdowns in July. Just remember... here's a man in finance that's 1. 6'5 2. Blue Eyes 3. Hedge Fund Probably better looking than you, and was up 439% through June YTD. Regarding the drawdown, Aschenbrenner acknowledged that the fund had "not been immune" to the market turmoil, particularly in Asia. FT separately reported that leverage amplified both its extraordinary gains and recent losses. He described the sell-off as potentially the best buying opportunity since early 2025 I'd agree with him and hope he succeeds with the raise. Since a lot of the current selloff looks like it overshot its mark through forced deleveraging.

我始终相信我亲眼看到的。你要让我看空，你得给我一个理由，我暂时找不到看空的理由。 其实所谓的很多风险，一个个都已经被排除掉了，但是股市还是在下跌。我现在感觉这已经不是一个理性的下跌了，这个更像是一种恐慌、发泄，一种失去信任的崩盘。 现在多头的日子异常艰难，每天股价滑滑梯，连个横盘都么有，外面嘲讽的声音又很大，相信还会涨的声音也越来越弱。500+的投票，相信反弹的人已经不足25%了。这还是昨天盘前上涨的时候投票的，今天再投票，我估计不足20%…… 如果说卖在人生鼎沸处，买在无人问津时，请问现在算是无人问津了吗？？ Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

Just some interesting takeaways from $FORM earnings call on CPO: Since they attributed systems revenue nearly doubled due to: "accelerating growth in co-packaged optics or CPO". Q1 2026: "we now expect 2026 CPO revenues to come in at the high end of the $10 million to $20 million range" Q2 2026 (now): "expect to exceed that range by the end of the third quarter, and to significantly exceed the $20 million level for the year overall." Management stated "We’re seeing some significant acceleration in this [CPO] business". Q: CPO adoption outlook. Are we perhaps expecting the timeline to accelerate a little bit? A: "What I would say is there’s acceleration here in the very short term." But management stated there's not a significant pull-in on timelines. Citing production infrastructure (not just R&D) for: - The growing volumes of CPO chips planned for later this year + test insertion for scale-up and scale-out switches. - Seems like that CPO piece flows through $TSM COUPE [ likely maps to $NVDA CPO products] - "The CPO piece does flow through that 10% customer" So now, test is ramping given management cited growing volumes of CPO chips. "The rapid recent growth of our CPO business is an exciting development, which we believe represents the very early stages of widespread adoption of silicon photonics in the broader semiconductor industry" TLDR: Fundamentally, CPO as a theme is very early, and should start to go brrr soon since it's starting to show up in earnings now (equipment/test players usually appear up first before optical engines / laser volumes ramp). Personally once all the deleveraging stops, I think markets will start to care more.

韩国国会门口已经被散户送的花圈淹没了🤣🤣，李在明今天依旧一言不发🤐 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/Esn7gbTTaj

央视新闻真🐶我已经成家族群里的笑话了🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/GHQk49rbIw

三星救世主🤣你是我心中的 hero。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/VYuk1ojqn9

有多少人昨天加仓了？让我羡慕一下 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

我已经把苹果手机砸了，换三星阔折叠了，这辈子就是三星粉了，我和苹果不共戴天！😡 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/1BYvXSKWqW

高盛，你会说话就多说一点，李在明这个缩头乌龟，这个时候都不知道躲到哪里去了，下半辈子牢里呆着吧。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/OuBWjWlOA3

思来想去，我觉得机会大于风险，准备入金了 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

三星财报发了，运营利润同比超过19倍的增长 🤯，但是收入不及预期。 收入：171.5万亿韩元 vs. 172.65万亿韩元预期 运营利润：89.5万亿韩元 vs. 88.13万亿韩元预期 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

韩国去杠杆两个月了，还没完吗？今年还有人赚钱吗？ 沃什都鸽成这样了，快成舔狗了，就差在会上表白了，怎么还能跌？ 微软财报逆天了，说好的AI泡沫呢？泡沫在哪？ Meta、谷歌、微软资本开支都上调了，怎么还担心存储到头了？ 通胀数据低于预期，到底在担心什么？ 数据财报都显示美国经济很强，甚至创纪录，哪里衰退了？ 美伊战争从三月打到现在，股价涨到六月，现在说战争没结束所以涨错了要跌回去？这么儿戏吗？ 流动性不足，有人能告诉我流动性到底是啥玩意？有具体指标吗？多低算不足？张口闭口流动性，拍脑袋想的吗？怎么判断？ 我不知道为什么跌。市场担心的鬼故事一件件被戳穿，但还是跌。难道有我们不知道的事在暗处涌动？这么神秘吗？ 现在炒股不看基本面、数据、美联储了吗？改看悬疑鬼故事了？ 跌没事，不怕，只想知道为什么跌？求个解释🙏 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.

$AXTI enters long term agreement with $LITE for InP substrates. Lumentum has agreed to pay a deposit of $43.5M as a reservation for capacity. https://t.co/5Dl3L9EYRa

To show solidarity with the $IREN holders: I now own 1 share of IREN.

美光中年危机了，秃顶，失业，啤酒肚，阳痿，硬不起来了😂😂 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

川普：我选美联储主席的标准只有一个，不要带脑子🧠 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

听沃什说话，感觉在浪费生命，不给任何有价值的信息，把不给指引贯彻到底。 听君一席话，如听一席话🤣 不过在这种行情下面，说废话可能是市场最希望的，我真的一点都不想知道他怎么想的🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

今天不加息就是赢了，沃什鹰不鹰也不重要了，因为市场已经计价了 9 月加息了。要是能鸽一下反而是送大礼了。 关关难过关关过，一关一关都闯过来了，可以反弹一波了吧 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. So far so good, since markets would have sold off on an immediate rate hike (seem to have largely frontran hike expectations off already). Think everyone is waiting for the Fed Chair commentary now. https://t.co/2bZtg5UKEb

三名叛徒，枪毙吧 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/lfBrKiQMIE

US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT. This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics. (For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public laser suppliers named in GFS presentation slides. Sivers laser arrays was named recently as a reference design in Globalfoundries SCALE for CPO). Per US Gov announcement: "GlobalFoundries will receive up to $300 million to accelerate domestic CPO R&D by two to three years" (NIST) Never thought we'd see the US Gov / $INTC foundry playbook for CPO in specific...

这种至少也是一年一遇级的历史大底，你们真的不上车吗？这个价格你买了能亏到哪里去？骂我归骂我，但是别耽误赚钱啊？ 哎~你们骂我千百遍，我待你们如初恋，骂我还叫你们上车，我真的是菩萨下凡了。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

看起来韩国要救市了。我看是真到底了，跌不动了。🤣 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。 https://t.co/5AXoFFfIXf

观点不变，当一份不及预期的财报砸不下去的时候，就是见底信号，今晚继续观察。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

海力士这份财报虽不及预期，但是数据依旧非常亮眼。多份长协锁死了利润，但也变相说明存储股已经不再是周期股了，这些长协就是海力士未来的保证。包括管理层也对未来做出了非常乐观的预计。 其实市场一直在担心内存的涨价不可持续，会引发甲方的泡沫，那这份财报其实就已经给出了答案。涨价不会无限制地涨，它是在一个有限范围内上涨。对于整个半导体板块来讲，其实是一件好事，也把未来硬件通胀的说法扼杀在摇篮里。 另外海力士的股价真的是非常非常便宜，你在市场上几乎找不到低估成这样子的同等标的，就就算把海力士当周期股看，也是极度的便宜。何况我不认为海力士现在还是周期股，在我的逻辑中。钱永远是往低处流的，存储板块的重新定价一定会吸引到新的投资目光。所有的一切都会恢复正常的，现在只是极端情绪在作祟，从非理性的上涨到非理性的下跌，最终都会恢复正常，恢复到海力士应该有的估值。 这种价格我不担心，坚持持有，一定会迎来曙光。我只相信我看到的。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

非常经典非常经典的热门股反转信号。现在没有落地的消息就是加息了，只要不加息，一切都是会好起来的。 坚持住，已经看到曙光了。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/Edrg5f8500

海力士财报部分不及预期。股价先跌后涨。当一份差的财报不能让股价继续下跌的时候，基本上就表示股价已经到底了。再加上情绪面非常差，昨日开盘插针，更加印证了股价到底的观点。 当然，晚上还有FOMC，只要不加息，什么都好说。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names. - $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS growth. Your leading optical players over in China reported amazing preliminary earnings + extremely strong read through for the Western photonics sector. Think earnings season tend to remind markets about continued AI acceleration. I'm expecting $LITE, $SNDK / SK Hynix, and sector leader ERs to continue that trend. But it does feel like markets are rewarding existing acceleration more rather than future growth a year out over near-term revisions as seen with $AMKR. But as a TLDR, looks very positive for the themes I'm tracking. - Then you have $GOOGL capex raised to $195-$205B, which is typically the biggest AI demand signal from hyperscalers. - 77% 0bps change est. next FOMC decision from prediction markets. Trump administration on Monday called for the Fed to lower interest rates. So your 3x rate hikes fears this year seem kinda overblown. - Chinese fears from DUV to $CXMT overflooding are extremely overblown as well. We see this with every sector from time to time until people remember that lasers or HBM bottlenecks for a reason. As for personal thoughts, it was unhealthy seeing everything rise up or down together, especially with these themes. But I'm personally not worried since I have full conviction in my names, especially optical interconnects like $SIVE or $AAOI. $META compute and $GOOGL GCP margins/growth shows increasing demand for $NBIS and similar neocloud business models. $META + other hyperscaler notes around LTAs with $SNDK and Samsung/SK Hynix, $MU point to structural memory demand. Can go on and on... But when you have Jim Cramer telling every margined DC trader to "sell everything" at market open and news saying there's an AI bubble. I do hate it when others say "it's dropping so sell". My belief is that the important thing to look is accelerating revenue/EPS growth. And if that thesis stays in-tact with revenue acceleration in line with hyperscaler capex. TLDR: I see signs of AI demand / revenue acceleration, hyperscaler capex is one of the most important things to track. And my guess is that we'll see the theme recover broadly. But I can't predict what hour, day, or week that happens.

@aleabitoreddit @wannabepanacea 祝你早日康复，AI硬件要见底了吗？还要跌多少

FCC set to ban Chinese imports of humanoid and quadruped robots per Reuters. To protect American Humanoid/Robotics programs. Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) and other US humanoid players should be happy to hear this. https://t.co/s2dFWTA4EX

今天的感觉非常微妙，开盘一个小时闪击存储，飞流直下，许多股票都跌破支撑，戳破心理防线，相信那一下有非常多的人爆仓了。 只有靠下跌让 90%的人绝望，放弃抵抗，才能形成真正的底部，今天开盘那一下真的太像太像了。如果明天海力士超预期的超预期，如果明天美联储不加息，也许今天真的就是最后一跌了。真的太像华尔街的手段了，这种操作手法我真的见过太多次了，太像了。 兄弟们，家人们，坚持住，我们已经无限接近黎明了，天快亮了 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

每一个不放弃的多头，之后都会有福报的。做多就是积德行善，做多一天就是积一天功德，一直做多就是一直积功德。现在吃的苦，之后都会加倍回报。 做空我就不评价了，开历史倒车，还能有什么好下场，自己去悟吧 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

别卖出你的股票，坚持住！！！无论如何也要熬过这个月。💪💪 这种跌法非常像是最后一跌！绝望，窒息，破防，明天海力士财报，没有理由在财报前这么跌。正常的下跌都会等到财报后，而不是财报前。我们拭目以待。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

川普，这个时候你应该召集一个全美半导体 大科技ceo 座谈会，画画饼，讲讲故事，拍拍照，要让他们顾大局！然后让 timcook 和美光ceo 握个手，拥抱一下，背景音乐播一下 ymca。同一个美国，同一个梦想。大家都是一家人！ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

双底达成，总能涨了吧！ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

人类远远低估了存储的需求

JUST IN: Pentagon moves to build hyperscale AI data centers on at least a dozen U.S. military bases.

现在给我很强烈的感觉是因为先下跌了，然后去找原因。而不是有利空导致下跌。 拿昨天举例，在夜盘和盘前还没跌的时候，没有人会说长鑫IPO是利空，没有人说英伟达2500亿担保是利空，没有人说国产光刻机是利空。这些所谓的利空消息其实并不是开盘才出现的，有的是周末，有的是整个白天都在发生。直到开盘下跌了，大家开始找原因，然后找来找去就只能找到这些利空。 但是时间完全是错位的，根本解释不通。但是也没有人深究原因，跌了就跌了，是什么原因也不重要了。 没有原因的下跌很可怕，但是没有原因的下跌是不可持续的，是非理性的。越莫名其妙，越不讲道理，越畸形，可能我们离转折点也就越近了。

今天不知道哪里来的百年大顶论，我看明明是百年大底，错过再等一百年。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

我取了十年美股10次回调，每次回调平均2-3月，为保持公平，一个月的回调我全部省略，22年熊市跌一整年我也不当采样，免得说我欺负人。 请问：8次回调哪一次不痛？哪一次不哭？哪一次不怀疑人生？哪一次不涨回来？你觉得这次不一样，只是你之前没经历过。但凡经历过之前任意一次，你都不会怀疑美股的走势。 从时间范围上看，我们已经很接近谷底了。或者已经在谷底了。我对未来依旧保持乐观。请你一定要坚持住，不要被噪音影响。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

市场讨厌不确定性，但是如今市场的不确定性几倍于过去：资本支持是否可持续，AI是否有泡沫，大模型是否能盈利，AI能否提升生产力，无人出租车是有市场，机器人是否能普及，人类是否能移民火星 。。。我们就是处在一个大爆炸的时间点，这几年的未知事件是过去几十年的总和。 过去十年你只需关心财报好不好，美联储说什么了，经济数据怎么样，哪里又打仗了。整个世界在一套现成的体系内运行，虽有变化但是总体稳定，但是AI的出现打破了这个平衡。 没有人知道未来在何处，所有人都在赌，有的试图从历史中寻找答案，有的人把希望寄托于美好未来，有的人则脚踏实地一步一个脚印。 这个市场的噪音已经多到爆炸，甚至噪音本身已经成为这个时代底色了。 但是市场终会寻找到这个答案，开头所有的问题都会有答案，所有的噪音终会消失，股市也一定会在一次次的质疑中一直新高下去。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

美联储七月加息概率非常渺小。因为美联储有个习惯，他属后知后觉机构，特朗普曾调侃鲍威尔“太迟了先生”即因此。他常推迟加息降息，更不会在市场预期前行动。但这是过去的美联储，沃什的无人知晓会如何选。 目前市场本月加息概率约三成。若在此预期下加息，简直就是毁灭市场。市场毫无准备，真加息就是顶级黑天鹅。沃什真有要这么做吗？ 川普昨天变相喊话，称美国需降息。沃什若逆天加息，怕被川普骂遍祖宗十八代。 美联储长久以来就是顺着市场预期，尽量安抚市场。近期市场回调，科技股近腰斩，已变相帮美联储加息一次了。你再加一次这都不能算火上浇油，是草菅人命了🐶 有人说沃什要立威信、建独立性，但不能靠牺牲市场，踩着川普的脸建立威信，这威信建立起来怕不是要遗臭万年 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

明天同一天上午韩国海力士财报，16小时后FOMC，纳斯达克决定命运时刻！！ 我们已经历很多关键时刻，其实每次都是顺利度过，真是关关难过关关过。但局势未反转，市场不但忽视眼前利好，反而相信未发生的危机，有点为跌而跌，无脑下跌的味道了。这不正常。在极端情绪下，我不会卖股，除非基本面恶化（如美联储加息）。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

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昨天利空分析： 1.长鑫 ipo，但是长鑫自己本身就是存储板块，首日上涨 460%，为什么没有起到估值锚的作用？而且这是新闻吗？这不是早就知道的事情，为什么华尔街感觉第一次知道一样 2.国产 duv，这个真的是平地惊雷了，但是新闻这也不透露，那也保密，连哪家公司都没有，真假无法分辨。但是市场的确是吓到了… 这算是巨大利空吧，如果是真的。但是说实话无法改变硬件的基本面。 3. 英伟达给openai担保了2500亿，担心债务爆雷。哎…这就是纯鬼故事了，纯主观愿意信不信了… 情绪很低，市场噪音很多很大，其实已经失去了理性的判断。都是情绪交易，无法持续。上涨的时候大家为之疯狂，下跌的时候其实也一样，没什么区别，股价最终会回到基本面的。需要耐心。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。