以为很懂，如果你认为今年会加三次，那无论怎么样十月也是加息，如果你认可今年加两次，那也是十月加息也比十二月加息好。当然你也可以认为今年只加一次，那我支持你。。。可惜市场不会这么认为，美联储的历史也会告诉你这微乎其微。

@hanking66 以为很懂，10月加息了，就会酝酿12月份继续加息，10月份加下，就有可能12月不加息，因为趋势在好转

新版大模型天梯榜，我谷出招了！🤣🤣🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/azfUrdmPkQ

早就分析过了，好财报就是好财报，好消息就是好消息。当天涨跌很多是情绪交易，而且我不认为现在的情绪很差，更多的是大盘太差了，真要跌早就砸下去了。拿住就行了，这是长期持有过程中的一个财报，后面还有千千万万的财报等着我们，没有必要一跌就改变看法，一涨看法又改变了。这样很累的。 美光的财报非常棒，我看不到任何槽点。会突破的。 buy the dip，长期持有，discord在个人详细资料。

@hanking66 你看到盘前了嘛？ 盘后横盘，盘前微跌！ 存储是被市场抛弃了嘛？仙人！快来严肃分析一下！

昨天 pce 出来之后，市场认为十月不加息，十二月加息一次，还把这个解读成利好🤦🤦这算哪门子利好，妥妥利空，而且大利空… 真不如直接十月加完最后一次息，加息落地后，后面直接就起飞了😅，现在拖到 12 月加息，直接毁掉了年底的行情😭 沃什你最好懂点事，要么十月直接加，要么就不要再加了也行…可别搞什么十月不加十二月加了，别听网上瞎说，你要是乱搞，我派川普半夜爬你床上去 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

美光横盘，网上分析很多，我在想，如果晚上暴涨了，那这些分析横盘原因的是不是都要重写😅 因为横盘分析为什么横盘没有任何意义。有意义的是，财报到底怎么样，行业未来怎么样，对我来讲，涨跌波动不会改变我的看法，我不会从结果出发，我永远是看底层逻辑。 继续看好存储，越来越看好，比以前更看好了，现在只是刚刚开始。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

【月更贴】：九月成绩单来了，九月收益 19%，继续稳定获利，但还没有从七月的暴跌中恢复过来，希望可以在十月完成 ATH。 主要美光涨的有点慢，好久没体会豹拉的感觉了，什么时候能让我回味一下呢？十月继续看好，我对美股非常乐观，目标就是继续买入谷歌，还差 20%仓位，另外谷歌之外又有了心仪的对象，目前还没有买入，属于前期观察，后续会用融资仓位找机会买入，前提是先买够谷歌再说。总之十月继续买买买，只买不卖。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

我也必须实话实说，我想过热巴（MU）会暴涨，要么暴跌，但真的没想过现在这个样子…一个超高关注度，历史级的盈利能力，在硬件股回调结束之后，股价居然更什么都没发生一样…这的确有点超出我的认知了… 我印象中真的没见过这种场面，以前也有财报横盘的，但那些横盘公司的热度和规模和财报表现都远不是现在热巴这种水平… 这种级别的财报，还能横盘的也算是某种奇迹了。所以还是少操作，长期持有靠谱，做短线风险太大了，你就告诉我做短线这种行情谁能玩得转…😂 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

热巴（mu）很好，非常好，目前没怎么涨，几乎原地不动，所以我会说，在市场里很难找出基本面如此之强，确定性如此之高，五边形无死角的战士，股价还严重低估，你却只会问怎么还不涨🤣 不要听别人怎么分析为什么不涨、长篇大论都是马后炮，都是从结果出发找原因。如果现在大涨，你会发现这些文章又会是另一种版本。 而我觉得目前存储越来越性感，现在的不温不火只是不温不火，什么都不代表，也许晚上就能爆拉了，也许明天就爆拉了，也许下周，下月。 这次财报公布之后，美光的空间已经完全打开，剩下交给时间，跌是跌不下去了，看空的收手吧，现在就是新征程的起点。我对热巴（mu）有 1000%的信心，现在如果不买，我不知道这个世界还有什么股票值得买？谷歌？intc？苹果？在热巴面前说实话都是垃圾… Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

$GOOGL Gemini 4 Argon benchmarks got released. Against GPT-6 Astra + Anthropic Fable 5.1 / Opus 5.5. Still coughing nonstop, so will comment on $MU / $JBL earnings later. I've always thought Google's internal models were stellar, but anecdotally, they seem to get hard nerfed shortly after public release... Maybe because of compute constraints? But yeah, looks like Google is back.

谷歌马上要主升浪了 左手 mu 右手谷歌，我这是要上天啊 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

我发这贴的时候 mu 还是跌的，但我已经提前预知了未来，这样才显得出我的水平🤦 不装了，摊牌了，我就是牛逼仙人。 目前 mu 也就 1%，我们明天见了。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

热巴（mu）安全渡劫，87%毛利，100 分的卷子成功考出 120 分好成绩，各位股东请放心，不会跌了！！现在的问题是涨多少！10%起步吧🤭🤭 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Gemini4！！！！我泣不成声！！！哭成泪人！！我终于等到了！！ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Today we’re introducing Gemini 4 Argon. It delivers frontier performance in complex workflows across real-world software engineering, knowledge work, and cybersecurity defense with an industry-leading 1M token output limit.

Lots of discussion out there about our next model(!), so I wanted to give an early look as soon as possible. Introducing Gemini 4 Argon! It shows frontier performance in complex workflows, cyber defense and software engineering. Teams are using it extensively at Google, from coding to quantum computing, great feedback. Here’s a look at the benchmarks:

在别人这里只会告诉你美债涨股市要完蛋了，这没毛病，教科书里就是这么写的。 但是我不仅告诉你，美债早晚破 5，我还会告诉你，你会见到股债齐飞的科幻场景。这应该是全网独一份了吧… 现在完完全全印证了我的判断，8 月 18 日我的这段文字堪称经典预言…而且我现在自己回味一遍当时的分析，我都想给作者写一个 800 字读后感🫠，每一个标点符号都透露着睿智😳 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

这周前两天对了，后面三天会继续对吗？pce 今天奇迹了一把了，大非农会继续发生奇迹吗？我也不知道，我都是懵的🤦 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/OGZcsQrooG

好了，已经来不及了🤦 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

我的谷是有利好吗？🤭 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/jzNkkv4vKF

国庆期间，发言会变少。但是今天是决战日，所以在还空的时候提前发帖说下最终看法。 1.财报当天的涨跌永远是五五开，谁都不知道的，不如自己扔一个硬币猜正反，可能还比问别人准一点。 2.美光的财报本身是不会差的，因为前面有海力士、三星、闪迪、英特尔、英伟达、台积电给他打过样，所以不可能隔壁的庄稼大丰收，我一个地里的庄稼不丰收。 3.好财报就是好财报，好消息就是好消息。 4.我无法排除会不会出现sell the news，这个东西说实话都是后视镜看的，跌了就是说sell the news，涨了就说超预期。新闻都是根据结果去套的，不用太在意当天的波动。 5.综上所述，如果财报出现下跌，一定要持有，不要卖出，后面一定会涨回去，甚至新高。如果涨了，那恭喜你，你赌对了。 6.如果心里没底，大家可以去看一下我上面提到的半导体个股，财报发布后当天是跌了多少？现在涨到了多少？ 7.一定要让我说个答案，那就是盘后大涨！（我扔硬币的结果） 好了，今晚不会有直播，下次直播就是10月8号了。祝各位国庆假期愉快，祝热巴旗开得胜（MU)，祝各位美光战士凯旋而归。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

OpenAI的模型总有一个毛病，喜欢做测试。再简单的任务，它都喜欢做无穷无尽的测试。我都怀疑它这么严谨是不是故意烧token。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Bro, $AMZN semi ETF portfolio is probably going to end up more compelling than what $NVDA owns... Today Amazon signed a $49.8M private placement into PCB maker Gold Circuit Electronics (2368). So now Amazon has ownership/warrants in: - $AAOI - Alchip - $MRVL (Celestial) - $ALAB - $CRDO - $JBL - $FLEX - $STM - $CBRS - $GNRC - $FN - TD SYNNEX - $QCOM - Gold Circuit Electronics And others.. If we look at the private placement amount for GCE in speciifc, it's like .36% of the company... Kinda small financially, meaningful strategically. Esp. since there were claims that GCE supplies ASIC-server PCBs to the four major hyperscaler CSPs... Regardless it's pretty funny to see Amazon to Nvidia start to own all the worlds leading companies. Since Amazon has exposure to the entire supply chain like PCBs now, optical fabric with Celestial, lasers with $AAOI, assembly from $FN to $JBL, ASIC partners like $QCOM / ALchip.

川普快给这个油腻秃头男一巴掌👋👋 https://t.co/KGi3SS4gI1

就 meta 今天的股价表现，市场已经给出答案了，openai 的 dot 完全无法跟 muse 抗衡。目前来看能打败 muse 的只能是谷歌了。 我给谷歌的建议： 1.做美国的 deepseek，仗着家大业大卷死他们。 2.尽快推出基于安卓生态的个人智能体，要快！立刻马上！ 3.必须推出 Gemini 的专属硬件产品，眼镜也好，音箱也罢，摄像头也行，哪怕一个灯泡都可以，但必须要有硬件！ 4.去舔苹果，和苹果绑死… 5.模型基础能力追上第一梯队就行，别垫底了。 6. Antigravity 改个名字吧… Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

马斯克和川普是不是故意整奥特曼，全网都在刷屏讨论 https://t.co/u4sZb5sdoV，风头完全盖过了 dot，太惨了🤦🤦，Meta 股票不跌反升，完全不受影响，我只能说，个人 agent 最后拼的不是能力，而是入口，得入口者得天下。（斜眼看下谷歌）🙄🙄 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

这是美股政府开了一个发布会吗？川普是真干人事啊…这政府效率直接反超天朝🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

🚨 JUST IN: Sec. Marco Rubio announces Americans will be able to apply for passports ENTIRELY ONLINE instead of spending HOURS and frustration doing it in-person "No printing forms, no drug store hostage photo, no appointment, no line, no middleman...and REAL-TIME STATUS, [tracking] estimated delivery date." "By the end of 2027, our goal is for most Americans to be able to apply for a passport or passport card on America .gov." He just PERSONALLY confirmed it: America .gov will let you do the entire process online This is massively overdue! The page is Super Intelligence-powered. EVERY nation is going to copy it 🇺🇸

Everyone is asking "Where is Serenity" or "Who is Serenity". But nobody is asking... "How is Serenity"? I do read things from $AMD $8.2B acquisition of World Labs... but feeling pretty sick right now, so taking a little break. I remember saying physical AI + world models would major shift way back when, so maybe I should have invested in private companies at the time... Apart from that... other interesting news: - Some channel checks from ECOC was that $NVDA apparently secured 50% of $LITE Greensboro UHP laser capacity? And possibly contracts that allow them to secure the remaining capacity per Barclays. That's $5B in lasers (annual capacity)... so it's hilarious to see Nvidia go out and bottleneck the rest of the industry by doing this. But this just puts more strategic value on other merchant laser suppliers + more visibility for Lumentum. It's kinda game theory over allocation, since if you secure all the HBM, lasers, and others it inadvertently makes it much harder for competitors to scale their programs. - Then there's your massive $150B Nvidia authorized buybacks (just look at $AAPL when they did buybacks..) They're printing too much. - What's also interesting is that Samsung Electro-Mechanics is expanding their FC-BGA substrate capacity today... but customers are the one funding this. I also remembered $MRVL in SEC filings cited large body substrates as one of the core bottlenecks of their program (alongside $TSM sole source dependencies). So they also went out and did some other expansion agreements with related companies like AT&S recently. - OpenAI delaying Astra-6.1 October release over safety concerns just now. Nvidia also happened to launch an AI safety platform. I don't think this is meaningfully bearish that the models are just getting 2 good.

买入谷歌，买入谷歌，买入谷歌，再不买就真的来不及了… Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/mXzkVBBwzf

People really need to stop thinking about 5% yields over 10 years or 30 years. Even the inflation of my $SUBWAY sandwich has gone up like 12% a year. Today it was like $20 after tax, when it used to be like $5… 12 years ago. The best way to keep up with inflation of the things that matter, like Sandwiches, is equities like $SPY.

我突然意识到, 原来我有这么多粉丝. 第一次从第三方的视角看了一下自己的主页…感觉好像还有点吓人? 如果我们办一场派对, 而且所有人都来了, 那应该不是塞满一个小房间的问题, 而是能塞满一整座城市吧? 总之, 中秋节快乐！

$AKAM signs $11.6B compute deal with Anthropic for accelerated CPU workloads demands over 7 years. $AMD to $MU should be happy to hear this… Akamai ests. ~$5.5B of capex to service the $11.6B commitment. Including +$1.7B of 2026 capex specifically to pre-purchase supply chain components like memory. So much for Anthropic/OpenAI calling for an AI slowdown?

If you're curious about the random $SPY / $QQQ candle: Just now, “US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade" - Reuters - "A deal before the midterms could benefit Trump, as reopening Hormuz could ease tensions in the Gulf, contain ​oil prices and help bring down politically sensitive US gasoline prices." - "Trump has said he thinks the US and Iran could reach a deal after midterm elections to Congress on November.” Would make sense for Trump to want markets as strong as possible during Midterms elections…

$AAOI has finished a $500m ATM In April.. $600m ATM in June. Then filed another $600m in August. It's out of my control if management wants to abuse this trash repeated ATM structure. Instead following $AXTI like LTA prepayments and using that to fund buildout. Or taking private placements like $NVDA + Nebius for $2B and using that to fund buildout. Or convertible notes at 40% premiums. It's really hard for the stock to break out of $100 or $150 or $200 if there's $600M of selling pressure at those levels (and maybe expectations of future ATMs). I had the same criticism with $IREN with their $6B ATM, which is why it's been rangebound for half a year. And I'll say the same thing with my own thesis names too. I see $AAOI operationally very bullish for 2027, with $471m/month transceiver revenue. 400k ELSFP units/month entering 2028. The revenue ramp is absurd and can compress to single digit forward P/E. But I find it hard to get excited over funding infinite ATMs during the buildout, when you're sacrificing opportunity cost with names currently profitable like $SNDK or Samsung. I think a lot of retail investors conflate stock performance with how a company is doing operationally. $AAOI is capitalizing on a bottleneck with high demand visibility, but stock has been going nowhere near-term with repeated ATMs. I do expect AOI to strongly outperform (especially in 2027) if they stop issuing these stupid ATMs.

@aleabitoreddit your aaoi is the trash

Wow $NBIS relative outperformance is wild. Back in 2025 I wrote my Neocloud thesis on $IREN to $CRWV. But I made the decision months later to consolidate it all into Nebius... Despite the the hate from FinX back then. Very interesting to see Nebius up 6% even during sector drop… After Oracle was reportedly seeking payment protection if Project Jupiter misses its 2028 opening. With Oracle: "seeking to protect itself from potential cost increases related to a large DC ​project in New Mexico by sending a force majeure notice" per Reuters. Lot of new people like to piggyback after it’s up a lot, but there was a lot less people bullish back in 2025. Especially during the period with a ton of institutional short sellers back in December. I still think markets might be underestimating sum of parts growth, even if its core business grows like crazy 2027+ onwards.

I’ve actually entered positions in many tiny Korean companies recently… That actively supply memory, test, machines, etc. to $MU, $SKHY, Samsung, and others like $SMTC + US companies. It’s pretty interesting what you find in the $30-$250m range for optical components, CPUs, memory, and others that are inflecting due to AI. I don’t share these names publicly since risks/volatility is enormous. But one or two going from $40M -> $400m makes the risk/reward worth it for me personally.

So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry: Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated: - $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially. - NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read through on higher valued products) - Demand for UHP lasers continues to exceed supply Just a status update in terms of how the optical bottleneck is going (laser prices going up, demand exceeds supply). Digitimes also reported today Win Semi ( $SIVE foundry ) was expanding capacity for CW lasers. - "CW products... are expected to gradually emerge in the second half of 2026", with meaningful revenue contribution likely coming in 2027 and 2028. - Win has strengthened inventory management for InP substrates while moving toward 6-in InP wafers for ongoing process testing. Currently relies on Tier-1 International suppliers. - Many of this was spent on DUV tools from $ASML but (Win Semi's orders spanned machinery, equipment, and fab engineering work) So that answers a lot of questions about Sivers' partner "how is this company securing InP substrates", "4in vs 6in", "production timing" TLDR: - NPO > CPO (per Lite), multi-wavelength lasers going brrr for prices - demand > supply (continuation) - Not sure why people have been bear posting Win Semi when turns out they have everything needed to mass produce CW lasers.

All the smart investors I know are now spending time on Korean small-caps. Not an easy market, but plenty of opportunities? Yes

Elon Musk: "AI will beat [humans] in all fields by the end of next year or maybe 2028, at the latest." Kind of maps to Anthropic's economic implications paper where 2026-2028 was the buildout. Then 2028-2030 was unprecedented economic growth. So we're still early H2 2026. https://t.co/LpGJkHcgn2

I guess I need to start calling $SNDK or $LITE Super Intelligence stocks. Thanks Trump. https://t.co/x7tJcKjfsc

I feel like traditional "value investing" went into hibernation. Before it was finding a 10x -12x P/E company like $UPWK or $PYPL, Dominoes, Pepsi. Or even a cheap Japanese company below book value. Then just enjoying slow growth but buyback/dividend appreciation from their cashflow. Now you can find 1.8x runrate P/E company like $ESMT that grew revenue 605.24% Y/Y. And the main thing you need to argue about is duration. Or a 16.2x trailing P/E Sumitomo, despite having way too many hyperscaler LTAs in AI from fiber to lasers. AI created much bigger medium-term anomaly, where "value investing" went towards high growth, "deep value" companies.

Wow Bitcoin + Ethereum pulled pretty extreme recoveries. Looks like $HOOD / $COIN / Crypto is back? On-chain equities trading + regulator exemptions probably put a lot of fuel into the fire for the sector. That aside... crypto is usually a great indicator for high-beta AI equities believe it or not (they tend to frontrun broader market drops or rallies). So overall market risk appetite might be coming back despite the rate hikes.

All right $META Muse is cooking. I can hear all the $AMD, $INTC, and $ARM CPUs vrrrring in the background. Along with the memory + components (NICs, SSDs, DRAM) needed for all the browsers/VMs When I ask it to do a bunch of long form tasks… Intel CEO also said recently that CPU demand is so strong they can only support 50% of what customers need, so there’s some signals there. I’m also curious how much $AMZN or $NBIS is involved with running Muse, or if Meta hosts everything inhouse. Kinda an ADHD post but Meta beat my expectations with this release. Will keep trying it out

$XPEV carves out its robotics unit and raises >$900M at $6.3B+ valuations. This is following’s Unitree IPO, which now has a ~$35-$36B MC. Then there’s $NVDA / $AMZN backed Agility… at a $2.5B premoney valuation. Which I’d argue is actually further ahead in commercialization than Xpeng. Regardless, humanoids + physical AI sector funding is really taking off.

Lot of misinterpretations flying left and right around the $600m ATM. I'm still bullish on $AAOI and I have large positions (which is why I care more). What I've been consistent with is not being a fan of overusing ATMs/dilution for financing. I've said this before with $IREN + $POET. And I'll be consistent with my own positions like AOI. However, the reason I'm still overweight on AOI vs. the rest (looking at you Poet): Is that AOI is actually capacity constrained with high demand visibility. In terms of timing: - AOI should have waited until completion of 1.6T qualifications (expected in the next few weeks) - Could have used other structures like convertible notes above market prices. But they did it on the drop from $220 -> $130, and it's likely there will be short term structural overhang whenever they want to tap into it. I don't have to support every single business decision to remain long.

从观赏娱乐角度来说，这比赛还挺好看的。。。 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。

这周最重要的就是周五沃什演讲。达子财报也很重要，但是现在影响美股情绪的主要是美债，又加上沃什在达子财报之后登场，所以达子财报好坏似乎也没那么重要了。 至于沃什会怎么表现，我很矛盾。我本人是一直认为他走的是嘴上不表态，事实大鸽派的路线。但是目前市场对沃什的意见很大，觉得他不作为。如果沃什继续他的风格，我担心市场会死给沃什看。你不管臣妾，臣妾就一头撞死在你面前😅 但如果沃什有改变，这次突然强硬起来，那要硬也是往鹰的方向硬。肯定是美联储那种用嘴管理预期的老套路：用嘴加息。 所以分析完，感觉横竖都不是很好，主要市场已经不信任沃什了。市场最怕的就是不确定性，沃什的风格，其实就是增加了不确定性，是华尔街最讨厌的美联储风格。 其实要想扭转这一切，真的一点不难，川普完全有能力以一己之力扭转乾坤的。撤军+宣布胜利就是他一句话的事情，美国不需要事实胜利，只需要舆论胜利就行。但是我认为川普有自己的时间计划表，时间还未到。美国的大选发力一般都是提前1个多月，也就是九月中下旬开始。太早发力，有可能会令效果大打折扣，且被对手有反应时间。川普都不着急，说明他手上是有底牌的。 我们唯一能做的就是相信川普，相信科技，相信AI和相信世间。 Buy the dip，长期持有，永远缺存储，Discord在个人资料。