每天一个鬼故事：长鑫市场份额排第四，但是估值却比老大还贵🤦，要么长鑫被高估了，要么海力士被低估了，总之一定有一个错了。 韩股海力士现在估值 pe 只有 4 了，你说周期股，我现在同行比同行，这总都一样了吧，你怎么解释吧？行业老大便宜成这样了，财报发完，估计 pe 非常有可能变成 2，华尔街你出来解释一下。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

一跌又各种牛鬼蛇神出来了，涨了就不说话了，跌了各种冷嘲热讽，希望新高的时候你们可以继续挺起脊梁，骄傲的说出存储到头了。 我说了，多头是不可能输的，空头只能赢一时，我多头是赢一世！！不服来辩！上一次和我辩论对空头，已经在上一波回调中爆仓了，这一次没有什么区别。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

不要卖出你的股票，你一卖出，必 v，因为人类的情绪是相通的，你扛不住的时候，这个地球上也有千千万万的你一样扛不住，你卖出的时候，也有数万个你在这个位置卖出，这些点早就被量化研究透了，破防的瞬间就是转折的瞬间。 无需太悲哀，坚信存储的基本面，短期市场充满噪音充满情绪，也充满博弈，但是长期股价一定会基本，这就是股市运行的基本规律，如果股市不会基本面，那华尔街也没有必要存在了，直接开赌场吧，猜大小吧😄 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

说实话，市场已经找不到利空了，但是还是跌了，新闻都已经词穷了🤦🤦 越是这样越有鬼，不会永远涨，也不会永远跌，跌到这个程度，市场最终会修复的，一定不要卖出你的股票 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/ZEz4Cibkck

转一下今天早些时候发的，应该会对很多人有用 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

存储的原罪就是没有带上机构赚钱。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。 https://t.co/iZqb1eDNjZ

Rocket Lab宣布在阿拉斯加建立第四个发射综合体以后盘前涨超4.69%。 我一直有在关注RKLB，目前太空板块集体承压，热度减弱，但是我只关注，太空赛道是否正确，RKLB有没有在做正确的事。耐心持有就够了。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

石油血崩。还加息吗？ Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。 https://t.co/7XJrQIYpXJ

X上的傻逼太多了，真的太多了，多到我甚至有时候会担心我喊大家买存储，我怕把那些傻逼喊上车了，让他们赚到钱了。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

说我不敢的，我转发你一下，RKLB我仓位25%，没有卖出一股，每天都有人让我晒仓位，晒了几次了，还要我晒，我不仅晒，我还在社区直播我的仓位，甚至买卖点都是透明的，直接打开账户给大家直播看。你自己没看就别说我没做。我一直站在阳光里，从来不怕别人泼脏水。 最后我再说一句，后面赚钱了记得给我充钱，别他妈亏的时候骂我，赚了的时候就不说话了，我不会让你们白骂我的。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

@j1blatF3jh4212 @hanking66 他怕是不敢提这茬了 https://t.co/JYVRouITGU

周末三星海力士狂揽9500亿，说实话，这种量级的投资，作为竞争对手的美光至少要跌20个点，但事实是美光也跟着涨，只能说明，存储没有竞争，供需关系严重不平衡，存储到头了就是最大的笑话。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

Wow, $CMXT is up a very normal +469.98% after going public today. Now valuing it at ~$487.31 billion, up from $85.5 billion. Did any of my Chinese followers buy into the IPO? https://t.co/TlibjHe799

长鑫上市首日就是A股市值第一，现在500%，50块，机构认为还有翻倍空间。就这种热度下，还有人说《存储到头了》…笑死我一整年。你告诉我，怎么个到头法😅 我非常肯定存储没到头，反而还被严重低估，错杀，还在起点…他就是全宇宙最赚钱的板块…完全没有price in，完完完全全全的价值洼地。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

1.已经很有威信了，川普全力挺他，他是美联储主席，不是一个副局长😅这也不是中国官场…… 2.已经很有独立性了 不需要再证明了… 3.已经很格林斯潘了，沃什已经比鲍威尔还难猜了，他不给指引。 桃总都观点其实都是一点，沃什要自证清白，可是沃什并没有要证明的需求，这都是脑补出来的。

做一个预测： 1.这周美伊有重要进展，油价狂跌 2.四大科技财报股价全跌，资本开支大幅提升 3.海力士财报吹响存储最强冲锋号角。 4.fomc 沃什继续打太极，鹰中带鸽，鸽中带鹰，继续保持所有可能性。 5.存储这周绝对主角，一个多月的负面情绪集体释放，暴力反弹，几天回到前高，抹平一个多月的跌幅。改变所有人的看法。 6.美股仙人这周全对，全网道歉膜拜，粉丝一周翻倍。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

周末没炸，又又又 taco 了，都 taco 一万次了，以后每次因为战争的下跌就是买入机会，都是噪音，都是纸老虎，市场是胆小鬼，就是为了让你焦虑，为了让你恐慌。你害怕了你就上当了。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

有人担心长鑫 ipo 会影响存储🤦，说实话我看不懂这个逻辑😳 先不说长鑫自己产能也是吃满的，涨价也涨上天了，更何况，美国也不会允许购买中国存储，李在明去美国就是去分配利益的，给美国爹送礼去的，你长鑫会认美国当爹吗？你长鑫赚的每一分钱都不会给川普，川普政府凭啥同意苹果购买长鑫。记住，川普是商人。 其次这些存储本质也都是一家人，现在纯卖方市场，30 年以前别谈市场竞争，你有见过中国楼市狂涨的年代二手房房东互相压价的吗🤦永远是供需关系决定一切 悲观赚不到钱的，怕东怕西就别炒股 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Nvidia in talks to backstop $250B worth of OpenAI DC financing. - Softbank’s SB energy develops 10 GW Ohio campus - OpenAI signs long term lease - $NVDA guarantees $250B in financing - OpenAI discussing separate agreement to buy up to $350B in Nvidia chips. Not quite sure if this circular financing is healthy long term, but given the massive size of AI infrastructure spending… Feels like capex beneficiaries will be extremely happy.

我对沃什还在了解的过程中，周末经过思考之后，我认为这次有很大的概率加息。 1. 用来建立个人威信 2. 表明独立的美联储 3. 致敬格林斯潘（市场不会知道我们在想什么） 坏处是现在市场只定价了35%的概率加息，包括这将会让市场彻底相信沃什的改革决心 所以周一，二市场如果反弹我认为周三的风险是应该考虑进去的，主动减仓或者被动减仓都可以做，美联储的影响是全面性的，比如标普。没必要做空和清仓，我们并非进入加息周期，AI仍在往前进。

Just some TLDR news: - $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory. - Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments. - Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b - $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr. - SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory. - SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER). - $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing. - $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion - Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B) - 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing - $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations. - Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck). - $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market. Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar). - $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract - JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production. - From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages. - Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others. - Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.

明天韩国大概率要比美国涨的好一点，如果想 dram 切 mu 是个好机会 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

不要卖出你的股票！ 不要卖出你的股票！ 不要卖出你的股票！ 人类永远喜欢用过去的经验做出判断，不愿意相信未知的事物会打破常规，存储已经完全不是周期股了，就算是周期目前看已经定死到 30 年了，这么长的时间跨度已经没有任何周期属性可言。我认为随着存储这个季度的财报爆发，pe 可可能会继续降，降到资金已经完全不能忽视的地步，到时候华尔街不得不承认自己看错了。 钱是不会撒谎的，水永远往低处流，但是看空的蛙蛙们脑子是不会变的 我无比确定存储还有巨大的上涨空间！ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

一壶啤酒述衷肠，所有的所有都表示存储没有到头，你愿意相信坐在华尔街办公室里敲出来的鬼故事你就去相信，请一直保持看空，一直空仓，一直做空，千万别买存储，你一定要保持自己的选择，你的选择是对的！！ 而我，一根筋，鼠目寸光，迷失心智，丧心病狂，鬼迷心窍，傻呆呆愿意相信亲自飞到美国的干杯🍻!! Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

A MESSAGE TO THE AI BEARS When AI bears look at the low multiples $SKHY, $MU, $SNDK and Samsung then the response is usually some version of “earnings multiples are meaningless for cyclical companies at peak demand and peak margins.” The reason these suppliers trade at such low multiples is precisely because the market already assumes today’s earnings are temporary... people aren't valuing current margins as permanent so the debate is really about duration. If earnings peak this year and begin collapsing shortly afterward then the low multiples are traps and I agree with the bears but if supply remains tight for several more years (which I do) then those valuations are WAY understated with how much cash the companies will generate before the cycle turns. SK Hynix has said the shortage could remain severe through the end of the decade while Samsung has also pointed toward meaningful tightness continuing through at least 2027. These companies obviously benefit from presenting a strong outlook so their forecasts shouldn't be accepted blindly but they also have the clearest view into customer commitments, equipment orders, wafer capacity, packaging constraints and the production schedules of the entire industry. The double-ordering argument also deserves a bit more context because a weak fill rate can sometimes indicate ghost demand but it can also mean customers are trying to secure supply they genuinely cannot obtain. The stronger evidence for me is from the structure of the agreements since customers are signing multiyear contracts, accepting pricing floors and ceilings, providing prepayments and in some cases helping suppliers fund additional capacity (temporary demand usually doesn't commit capital years ahead or help finance the supplier’s expansion). This cycle also looks different from a traditional cycles because the physical bottleneck is much harder to solve since HBM consumes substantially more wafer capacity than standard DRAM while each new generation becomes more difficult to manufacture and package. As the memory suppliers move from HBM3E toward HBM4, HBM4E and later generations, part of every capacity increase is absorbed by the greater manufacturing intensity of the product itself. That same narrative supports $TSM and $ASML because more advanced AI chips require leading edge wafer capacity, EUV tools, advanced packaging and years of coordinated capital investment before supply can meaningfully expand. TSMC doesn't add capacity overnight while ASML machines sit at the beginning of nearly every leading edge production roadmap which makes the supply response slower and more capital intensive than a normal short-cycle industry. $NVDA, $AMD, and $AVGO sit one layer closer to the end demand but the same duration question applies since bears say $META, $GOOGL, $AMZN and $MSFT are overordering accelerators and custom silicon which eventually creates excess inventory and falling margins but my takeaway is that training demand is being joined by inference, agentic AI and custom silicon programs that extend the cycle way longer than people expect. The argument that these companies are at peak demand also becomes less convincing when the bottlenecks continue moving across the stack since one quarter the shortage is GPUs, then its HBM, then advanced packaging, then optical connectivity, then power, cooling or data center capacity. Again that doesn't mean shortages last forever but it does suggest the buildout is still expanding across several physical layers rather than reaching a clean and obvious peak. I agree that cyclicality hasn't disappeared since semiconductors will eventually reach a point where supply catches up with demand, pricing weakens and margins decline but I really think people need to compare the expected duration of the shortage with current valuations, contract structures, capacity timelines and the risk that AI demand slows before new supply reaches the market. The industry will eventually normalize but if the market is valuing many companies as though earnings collapse next year while supplier commentary and fab timelines point to tightness lasting much longer then the low multiple may represent opportunity rather than warning.

为什么我能这么乐观，因为年年都一样🤦，我玩美股十年了，没有一年是连涨十二个月的😂，每年都会大跌和小跌，平均一年跌四个月，涨 8 个月，然后每次一跌超过一个月，各种鬼故事横飞，理由还年年不一样🤣，但结果却是一样的，美股又又又又新高了。 你们自己去看月线么，这种事打开 app 就能明白的。今年有什么不同啦🤔，我感觉今年还比往年更乐观一点。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

战争会结束，通胀会下跌，美联储会降息，川普会继续赢，硅谷会全力搞ai，存储会猛猛赚钱，科技会继续狂飙，人类会继续前进，生产力会继续提高，所有的一切都不会停止下来。这是趋势，也是规律。一百年如此，后面一百年也是如此。 而我的账户会一直新高，悲观的你因为错过，一切和你无关。🤦🤦🤦 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

22 年来最差的七月，但已经是最差的了，还能怎么样呢？仔细研究下这个表，你会有很多发现，比如 ytd+11%🤦空间还很大 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

存储到头了🤦🤦🤦，这句话我要笑一辈子 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/aA0QpVBIqs

加码到9500亿！你们选择相信一个又一个的订单，还是相信华尔街吹着空调敲键盘的鬼故事？这些不断刷新的数字都是实打实的业绩，到底是我在盲目喊，还是你在盲目怕？ 喊着存储到头了，但订单合作并未停止。一个月前喊，这一个月至少签了一万亿以上合作订单，是否该更新认知了？ 散户很好欺负，价格一跌就什么都听不进去，恐慌瞬间占领高地，失去判断力，不断自我怀疑。但价格只是价格，毫无意义。今天跌、这个月跌，只要下个月新高、年底新高，回头看跌再多也没意义，它只是一个数字。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

川普带上了 2028 年的帽子🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/88xg2AlZJL

从现在开始我将切换成攻击模式，谁在我的评论区攻击存储，你就是井底之蛙，你就是呱呱叫，你就是🐸🐸🐸，没有别的意思，我就是不接受反驳，下一周我会恢复发帖频率，我要火力全开，不喜欢我的赶快取关。 唱空纯粹的就是纯傻逼，没有独立思考能力，对是非黑白没有判断能力，只会人云亦云，是自己情绪的奴隶，墙头草随风倒。 你们不喜欢赚钱，我喜欢赚钱🤑这钱你们没有资格赚。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

李叔带着几个大佬在美国好风光，在硅谷获得雷鸣般的掌声，订单签到手软，数字一个比一个大。喊了一个多月存储到头了，可是存储就像推土机一样，碾过一切质疑的声音。为什么股价昨天还跌了？因为市场充满噪音，短期涨跌混沌无序，代表不了什么。下周还有海力士和四个大科技财报，资本支出继续提高到天文数字，钱不停流向硬件。什么不可持续、到头了？存储赚的钱是越来越多了，越来越夸张，存储的PE会越来越低，低到个位数甚至1，低到所有人不得不承认自己错了。市场终会发现，所谓到头了只不过是井底之蛙的一厢情愿。 我无比看好，无比确定，从来没有过的相信，存储现在还在起点。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

关键词：5000 亿、下一代。自己内心感受一下，摸着良心问一问，存储是不是到头了🤦🤦，还是只是股价跌了，你感觉到恐慌了？ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

所有所有所有的一切都指向存储没有到头。认为存储到头的就是井底之蛙、闭门造车。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/SKQtGFpBzu

昨天一跌又开始恐慌了。歇了一周多一点，日均帖子数降到个位数，现在又得上压力了。 这波反弹一定充满曲折，套牢盘太多，预期要摆正，别把期望拉得太高。但不必过于悲观，谷歌财报已定下存储基调，风险已排除。存储继续新高只是时间问题，资本开支会继续，钱会流向硬件，没人会放弃AI。所有鬼故事都是为了让你割肉卖出，写给你看的。卖了就正中下怀。 所有人都低估AI，低估人工智能基建规模和硅谷决心。大部分人用过去经验判断未来，但过去没有AI这样的巨大变革，经验毫无参考价值。看空的人最后都会成为小丑🤡 悲观永远是美股投资的墓志铭，只有乐观才能在美股赚钱。相信人类、相信科技、相信地球、相信川普。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

BREAKING 🚨: Nasdaq 100 $QQQ on track for its worst July in 22 years 📉 📉 https://t.co/uuVlcGmECh

There you have it, $GOOGL Waymo to explore split with $UBER per FT. My view last year was that Uber partnering with Waymo was a bad choice… since Uber would just serve as a distribution funnel that Google needed as they scale up. And that $NBIS Avride, other neutral players, or vertical integration would be the optimal path forward. Now their own partner Waymo looks to be the strongest disruptor to Uber.

INTC一份满分无死角的财报，但还是跌了。财报可分析好坏，但涨跌永远猜不透，涨跌永远五五开。 好消息就是好消息，INTC基本面在改善，这是能在纸面上看到的。老陈已证明自己是顶级CEO，有这样优秀的CEO，INTC会继续前行。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Jensen from $NVDA has joined X for the first time to share his letter on open models.

周末海力士和三星 CEO 与李在明访美。 下周28 号海力士财报。 分析我就不分析了，我直接问，现在存储都在跌，你们确定不买吗？ Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

市场在担心周末炸伊朗，有资金在避险，就这样。没啥好担心了，川普和伊朗必有一个 taco 的，让他们两个继续演，周一开盘前会有结果的，我一点都不担心，都是噪音，鉴定完毕。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter. AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country. Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty. The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models. https://t.co/AUKzoQ5Ikb

谷歌的财报可能已经把股市带到了新的叙事，叠加加息预期，大盘有点难了。 这个时候之前猛跌的半导体板块可能会跑赢大盘，而之前大盘没怎么跌，到这个阶段就有补跌需求了。 不过也不用太担心，川普+沃什组合会告诉你，一切都是杞人忧天。🤣🤣 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

intc 可能出现了一个非常离谱的买入机会，离谱到说出来你都觉得 intc 有点冤，intc 交出了一份近几年的最强财报，但因为被知名毒奶 jim carmer 看好，intc 几乎抹平所有涨幅🤦 我不知道你们怎么看？纯情绪玩梗了…基本面那么好，没有理由涨不回去。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

amkr 开花结果了🤦，我看中的时候也就 30 块钱🤦 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。 https://t.co/r1UEkolgKs

美光这周+16%，纳斯达克这周-1.5%，不买存储的人这周说实话挺难受的，这个就叫风水轮流转 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

特斯拉最大问题是未证明无人出租车的价值。饼虽大、PPT漂亮、话好听，但最终须体现在财报上。目前市场已明显失去耐心。 说句良心话，市场对特斯拉已很宽容了。特斯拉拥有全宇宙最善良的股东。换任何公司，以无人出租车这种发展速度，估计早已跌到100块。 进度确实偏慢。马斯克坚持摄像头方案的理由之一是可快速扩张，跑通一地即可迅速全球铺开。目前看他食言了，仍是一城一城测试，同城面积也一点一点扩大，感觉和雷达方案没区别，甚至比Waymo更慢😅 更重要的是，盈利模式和市场认可度完全空白，能否成为新现金流机器、市场是否认可，一切未知，都需时间。 我对特斯拉的建议是：等它证明自己再买入，宁愿少赚一点。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

说说大科技，现在的大科技感觉都变成初创公司了。未来两三年基本放弃盈利，重点不再是赚钱，而是拼命烧钱博创业成功😅。资本市场自然不喜欢这样，他们不会有耐心陪你创业。所以未来大科技说不定还要继续跌。 但我支持大科技这么干，这才是一种勇气和自我担当，坐吃山空早晚会被历史的车轮碾过，勇于放下身段，和小辈们拼刺刀才是大格局。这也从另一个角度说明ai他就是一种革命，重要程度高到世界上最伟大的公司甘愿从零开始。 谷歌大概率会跌到300，那个时候我会开始买入（希望有仓位） Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization). There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI". Most interesting take was: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years". There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay. And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years). As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp. From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star. So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light. But TLDR: Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading. Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.